Official 2016 Election Thread - Part 5

[TySixtus]

Wait, I'm confused. I thought you were supposed to stock up on guns & ammo when a democrat gets elected cuz omergawd, they're gonna take 'em away.

Trump is going to destroy the united states, and in 18 months we will be living in an irradiated wasteland.

[TySixtus]

40%+ of the working class is non-white. Even if he wins the white male vote by historic margins, the rest of the country dislikes him enough that he'll still get absolutely smashed.

I'm not picking on you both, but really these predictions are silly in light of what just happened.

[daap-umop-bnp]

I'm not predicting anything. I'm just nervous.

[brugroffil]

I'm not picking on you both, but really these predictions are silly in light of what just happened.

Trump won the GOP primary, a race dominated by shitty white people representing a minority of the GE vote. It's going to be Goldwater 2.0. My only worry is if that means we get the next Nixon or Reagan within a decade.

[teeth!]

The difference is, I will go buy ammo, whereas none of these crybaby pussies will actually change citizenship because of who is president.

ETA: how many new Canadians were there after Bush got reelected? Three?

Who said anything about Canadian citizenship?

[TySixtus]

Here's what I think is going to happen:

He will soften all his rhetoric and/or excuse it away as necessary to get everyone's attention. He will begin meeting with real Republican power brokers who will suggest some tacks for him to take so as to be palatable to rank and file Republican voters.

All of his racism/xenophobia/sexism will be downplayed and ignored, mostly because that is easy enough to do, and also because many voters simply do not give a shit about it in the same way that a liberal press does. Also, charges of racism and sexism simply don't stick like they used to (lots of reasons for this, many of them self-inflicted).

I think he is really going to give Hilldawg a run for her money, at least until debates hit. She might really brutalize and embarrass him there, but then again maybe not. If he can win the primary this easily, can certainly win the election. And I think once the Republican establishment gets over their butthurt, they will get behind him with everything they can muster. Because most of them still hate the Clinton brand more passionately than anything else on earth.

[TySixtus]

a race dominated by shitty white people

You guys really have to get off this shit, or at least realize that you are inflating its level of importance. Most American voters simply do not give a shit about this. There are Mexicans and black people voting for Trump. And if he softens his rhetoric (which he is almost guaranteed to do) he will likely capture more of them.

[brugroffil]

If everyone somehow just decides to ignore his racism/sexism/xenophobia and his manic rhetoric, sure, he can win. I don't think the people who feel targeted by his racism/sexism/xenophobia will just shrug their shoulders and vote for the Orange Man, though. Hillary Clinton is heavily disliked, but Trump takes that to strange, new places. Being the best candidate to absolutely crush the GOP primaries while ending the political careers of over a dozen people doesn't mean you're a great GE candidate.

Of course maybe Trump really has thoroughly fucked reality and we're all in for a crazy ride!

[brugroffil]

You guys really have to get off this shit, or at least realize that you are inflating its level of importance. Most American voters simply do not give a shit about this. There are Mexicans and black people voting for Trump. And if he softens his rhetoric (which he is almost guaranteed to do) he will likely capture more of them.

The GOP primary is dominated by shitty white people. That's not inflating it's level of importance, that's just describing the GOP primary base. Yes, there have been a handful of minority supporters for Trump,* just as there were for other GOP candidates in past races. Those candidates, the ones who weren't being over-the-top racist, still lost the minority votes by gigantic margins. Trump has a 90% disapproval rating among black people. The GOP already struggles, and he's only amplified that.

I think you need to get off the shit that being repelled by racism and sexism is just some sort of niche internet SJW thing. Trump can pivot all he wants, but his craziness has been blasted across the media for months now. People aren't just going to forget that and decide to vote for Trump.

*eta: e.g. Trump supporters made a big deal about "Trump won Hispanics in Nevada!" Yeah, all couple dozen of them that voted in the GOP primary. The GOP primary voters are in no way indicative of the population at large, let alone of the minority population. Don't buy into that sort of wishful thinking.

[TySixtus]

I think you need to get off the shit that being repelled by racism and sexism is just some sort of niche internet SJW thing.

That's not my assumption at all, of course racism is repelling to people. But what I am not doing is giving it a supreme level of importance. I don't know why people assume that a minority voter is just going to vote on this one issue, every time. It is entirely conceivable for a Mexican guy (just to use an example) who owns his own business to go, "Well Trump is a fucking racist, but he understands business better than Hillary and she lied to the FBI, and she's a crook . . . soooo . . ." and bam, a vote for Donald. This kind of pragmatism happens all the time, I mean it is happening right now on TR with Hillary.

I'm simply refusing to assume that minority voters are going to rally behind Hillary because Donald said racist things. Maybe they will, maybe a majority of minority voters will put identity before the economy, or foreign policy, or trade, or whatever, and if so okay. But I'm not going to assume they are.

ETA: I think this really going to boil down to the economy. If Trump can sell his vision better than Hillary can sell hers, I think that will lock it up. People will tolerate a racist if he improves their financial situation. It happens all the time.

[brugroffil]

That's not my assumption at all, of course racism is repelling to people. But what I am not doing is giving it a supreme level of importance. I don't know why people assume that a minority voter is just going to vote on this one issue, every time. It is entirely conceivable for a Mexican guy (just to use an example) who owns his own business to go, "Well Trump is a fucking racist, but he understands business better than Hillary and she lied to the FBI, and she's a crook . . . soooo . . ." and bam, a vote for Donald. This kind of pragmatism happens all the time, I mean it is happening right now on TR with Hillary.

I'm simply refusing to assume that minority voters are going to rally behind Hillary because Donald said racist things. Maybe they will, maybe a majority of minority voters will put identity before the economy, or foreign policy, or trade, or whatever, and if so okay. But I'm not going to assume they are.

I guess I'm really struggling to see the path forward for the GOP's demograpgic disaster when the presumptive leader of the party is a racist demogogue. Romney won 27% of the Hispanic vote in 2012, and he didn't have an 80% unfavorability rating with that group and wasn't openly shitting on them. Why would you really expect Donald "rapists and murders/THE WALL!" Trump to do better with that group who's already repelled by the GOP in general?

I'm not assuming minority voters will rally behind Clinton because Trump is racist. I'm assuming that minority voters already rally behind the Democratic party and Trump only accelerates that.

If they are not idiots, they would still not choose Trump if "the economy, or foreign policy, or trade" were there number 1 concern because his economic policy is ramped-up supply side garbage, his foreign policy is WILDCARD! with nukes/extortion protection racket, and his trade policy is dumb shit (35% tariffs!) that will never pass Congress. So even if we're looking at voters who are going to care about policy nuance, I'm not seeing where Trump comes out favorably there.

Also, labeling not wanting a racist shitbag as President as putting "identity" ahead of various policy considerations is pretty god damned stupid given the impact racial policy has on economic policies! The US has a proud history of improving the economic outlook of white people at the expense of minorities, and minorities are generally aware of this. eta: trump's entire campaign is white identity politics anyway

[daap-umop-bnp]

The polls show people trusting trump on the economy more than Clinton. I just read that horrific fact this morning.

[brugroffil]

The polls show people trusting trump on the economy more than Clinton. I just read that horrific fact this morning.

Yeah, that was the CNN poll, but it sort of undercuts Ty's argument imo.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/04/politi...eral-election/

So Trump has a slight lead in the economy in this poll, 5%, and 9 of 10 people say the economy is very important to their vote. But Clinton still retains a 13% margin on "who would you actually vote for."

[schneibler elf]

Minority voters are already rallying behind Hillary, and have been. Trump may get four of them

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[th1nk3r]

Yeah, that was the CNN poll, but it sort of undercuts Ty's argument imo.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/04/politi...eral-election/

So Trump has a slight lead in the economy in this poll, 5%, and 9 of 10 people say the economy is very important to their vote. But Clinton still retains a 13% margin on "who would you actually vote for."

[TySixtus]

I guess I'm really struggling to see the path forward for the GOP's demograpgic disaster when the presumptive leader of the party is a racist demogogue.

Why? He can do the same thing he did to win the GOP primary -- treat the election like reality TV. Unless your assumption is that everyone who voted for Trump is a racist, and so that must mean that winning the Republican primary is easy while winning the general is almost impossible, but I think that is too simplistic.

Who knows, maybe she will fucking crush the guy. But I think some people are being too sanguine about a Clinton victory. That guy really knows how to work the media.

[brugroffil]

GOP Primary voters are a very different demographic slice than GE voters. You don't need to assume that everyone voting for Trump is just a racist driven by racism (though the central tenet of his campaign is ethnic nationalism!) in order to recognize that it's not a representative sample of the population at large. I think it's far more simplistic to assume that GE voters will be just like GOP voters.

Trump's opponents were also completely caught off-guard by him and didn't treat him as a serious threat until it was far too late. They also had the problem of having far too many candidates and not having a single person to coalesce around*. That sort of dynamic doesn't work in the GE when it's one-on-one.

*eta same thing happened in '64. The liberal GOP establishment didn't know if they should back Rockefeller, Romney, or Scranton and didn't decide until it was too late.

[VoxRat]

The polls show people trusting trump on the economy more than Clinton. I just read that horrific fact this morning.

In his victory speech last night, Trump brought up the recent Rasmussen poll that has him ahead of Clinton by 2 points:


Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2 points in a head-to-head matchup, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.

Trump gets 41 percent to Clinton's 39 percent in the new poll.

[brugroffil]

Rasmussen is hot garbage and has always had a strong GOP bias though.

[schneibler elf]

Lol rasmussen

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[brugroffil]

My favorite part of yesterday is that on the same day Trump knew he was basically going to seal the nomination, he brings up conspiracy theories about Lee Harvey Oswald and Cruz's dad unprovoked. I think we'll hit a lull for a little while here, but the GE should be pretty entertaining come convention time.

[schneibler elf]

One thing that's interesting is you have a whole conservative movement, including prominent politicians, journalists, etc, urging republicans not to vote for trump, and to vote for Hillary instead or at least show up and not vote for president but still vote for downticket republicans. You don't really have that on the Democratic side, aside from some whiny minority of Bernie supporters

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[VoxRat]

My favorite part of yesterday is that on the same day Trump knew he was basically going to seal the nomination, he brings up conspiracy theories about Lee Harvey Oswald and Cruz's dad unprovoked. I think we'll hit a lull for a little while here, but the GE should be pretty entertaining come convention time.

In Cruz's throw-in-the-towel speech, he started off talking about "unity", "continuing the fight", how unacceptable a Democrat victory would be, etc. etc. etc. ... which I was sure was going to culminate in a "Let's bury the hatchet and all get behind Trump" coda. Which I was going to find kind of remarkable in light of this Oswald trash talk.

But it never really did.
He never mentioned Trump by name.
Leaving all this "we will continue the fight!" talk sort of in the realm of the abstract.

[BenTheBiased]

RE: Rasmussen, some polls from September of 2012...

[ravenok]

If everyone somehow just decides to ignore his racism/sexism/xenophobia and his manic rhetoric, sure, he can win. I don't think the people who feel targeted by his racism/sexism/xenophobia will just shrug their shoulders and vote for the Orange Man, though. Hillary Clinton is heavily disliked, but Trump takes that to strange, new places. Being the best candidate to absolutely crush the GOP primaries while ending the political careers of over a dozen people doesn't mean you're a great GE candidate.

Of course maybe Trump really has thoroughly fucked reality and we're all in for a crazy ride!

August 2016: Donald Trump announces his VP. Hillary physically attacks him during a debate.
November 2016: Donald Trump elected 45th president of the United States.
April 2017: Hillary Clinton sentenced to 37 years for high treason. Bush family forced into hiding.
September 2018: Great Wall of America completed "Under budget, ahead of schedule".
October 2019: The great northern wall erected. "When Canada sends their people they send Beibers, they send Krogers, they send Cruzs, some I assume are good people but they elected Trudeau so we can't take a chance".
June 2020: Ellis island reopened as German refugees pour in after Germany taken over by Sharia Law. "They can come here, but they have to do so legally."
November 2020: Trump wins reelection carrying 50 out of 50 states plus Washington.
June 2021: Boots on the ground in Eurabia "We will liberate them and make Europe great again"
Jan 2022: "We got her" Merkel captured in a spider hole outside Dusseldorf. To stand trial for crimes against German people.
August 2022: US forces reach the Aegean sea. Europe annexed into greater American empire.
April 2022: Seige of Istanbul is successful. Constantinople reclaimed.
June 2023: Communist forces of the Democratic peoples republic of Canada launch sneak attack across lake Michigan. Chicago burns.
July 2024: Toronto falls. Canada annexed. Quebecois forced to learn English.
August 2024: 22nd amendment repealed.
November 2024: Trump wins third term.
Jan 2025: Attempted coup by Sandernista revolutionaries leads to emergency powers granted to Emperor Trump.
July 2030: Total victory against Islam reached. "No longer do you have to worry about women being killed for not being covered, gays being thrown from rooftops, people being stoned. sharia law will not rule. I told you I'd do something about it and I did".
July 2035: United American Empire lands on Mars.
2037: Greater American empire split into Trumpium and the Trumpantine empire for administrative purposes, Barron Trump promoted to co-emperor
2038: Earths greatest scientists perfect immortality for Emperor Trump.
2040: The Chinese empire falls. Trumpian forces quickly establish order.
2041: All resistance wiped out Earth is united under one banner. Except Mexico. Fuck Mexico.
2060: Terra colonists arrive at Alpha Centauri.
2066: The Immortal Donald achieves the title God Emperor of Mankind.
3000: Humans expand to 30 star systems. Population 700 trillion "I told you we would be great again. Yuge!"
40,000: Human empire stretches across thousands of systems with Holy Terra and the Immortal God Emperor Trump at its center. The Celestial Imperium of Trump shall rule forever.