NHL 15-16

[Bilirubin]

http://montrealgazette.com/sports/ho...ots-him-a-puck

:3

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Looks like Canada's not advancing to the postseason

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I mean, thank god we don't need to wonder who "Canada's team" might be

[Photon]

I mean, thank god we don't need to wonder who "Canada's team" might be

This is the first time since I've been alive, that no Canadian team will make the NHL playoffs. The league is still ~50% Canadian players, but this is pretty weak. This will mark only the second time in the entire history of the league that no Canadian team makes the playoffs (the only other time was in 1969/70, and that was a by-product of a wonky division set-up).

So this season..."Canada's Team" = ???

In terms of numbers of Canadian players, the Panthers, Islanders, Avalanche, Stars, and Blues all have 14 on their rosters. The Kings, Ducks, and Flyers are close with 13 each. Very arbitrary reason for selecting a team to cheer for though.

Using data from last week, the Capitals are the *only* team in the league to be ranked in the top 10 in offense, defense, PP, and PK. They are #2, #3, #3, #4 respectively. The Ducks are pretty impressive this year, except they can't score 5-on-5, they have the #1 defense, #1 PP, #1 PK, which is tough to do. There's no way I'd predict an Anaheim-Washington SCF, yet, though, it depends on the matchups, and whether Ovie can show up. His performance in the playoffs is highly opponent-dependent.

The Sharks would be ranked similarly to the Caps if their PK wasn't so terrible. They are top 10 in the other categories.

But the Stars win for best split personality. #1 offense, #3 PP, but on the other side of the ice, #24 defense and #21 PK. Sometimes you have to backcheck.

Since Connor McDavid isn't going to save the NHL playoffs from themselves this year, maybe I'll just skip them altogether. ;-)

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Pens are going all the way this year, barring a terrible injury to Letang or Crosby.

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Pens are going all the way this year, barring a terrible injury to Letang or Crosby.

They are rolling right now, and without Fleury. Given their traditional lack of scoring in the post-season as rounds progress, goaltending becomes even more important. And I'm not sold on a rookie taking them the whole way. If Fleury comes back, maybe.

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This is a very different team than in previous years. And even though the core is the same, they're a lot more stable and are less likely to drop into undisciplined shitshow if the other team goons it up a bit.

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Plus their possession has been pretty ridiculous the past two months or so. They've been able to do things like hold Ovechkin shotless and maintain 2+ minute even-strength possession cycles in the offensive zone against NYR. This is some ridiculous hockey being played in Pittsburgh right now.

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25 year playoff streak for the redwings. impressive stat there.

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25 year playoff streak for the redwings. impressive stat there.

It sure is, considering even though the streak started back when 16/21 teams made the playoffs, it's still going now when 16/30 make the playoffs. Other teams have had longer playoff streaks, but all in eras where the % of teams making the playoffs were higher than they are now.

They've won 4 Cups in that streak too. The Blues and Blackhawks had similar streaks from approx 1979-2004, and 1970-1997 and neither won a Cup. The only other longer streak was Boston 1967-1996 ish 29 seasons I think, but they only won 2 cups in that streak.

To put it in perspective in the modern NHL, the next longest playoff streak is 10 seasons, by the Penguins.

Contrast that with the Oilers missing the playoffs in the last 10 seasons. Tying a record by the Panthers.

[Bilirubin]

Its especially impressive considering how dire they were from the late 60s until the late 80s, the era of the Dead Things.

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So, predictions for Round One? This is what I came up with, written before puck drop yesterday:

NHL PLAYOFFS 2016

I do an NHL playoff prediction each year, for each round, and this year is no different except for the first time I’ve been alive there are no Canadian teams in the playoffs. Still, with the parity in the NHL at an all-time high, the first round of the playoffs should be highly competitive, and in some cases hard to predict. I take into account statistics for the year, and look at CORSI/Fenwick stats index for the last 20 games or so, evaluate intangibles, and look at prominent injuries. My historical success rate for predictions in the first round averages around 75%. So here we go:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Metropolitan

M1 WSH vs. WC2 PHI
The Capitals have been virtually unstoppable all year, on the backs of Rocket-Richard-winning, 50-goal-scoring with a hat-trick in his last game Alex Ovechkin, and Brayden Holtby from Lloydminster tying a season record for wins by a goalie (in way less games than Brodeur did it). The Capitals are #2 in Offense, Defense, and PK, and quite high at #5 for PP. I have to give the Flyers credit, they had an amazing run in the last two months to make the playoffs, and Gostisbehere (Ghost-Bear) just might win the Calder, but with a poor PK, and low-ranked offense, the Capitals should win this series. Handily. WSH in 5.

M2 PIT vs. M3 NYR
With a terrible start to the season, and missing the all-star game, Sidney Crosby lit it up in the second half, finishing third in league scoring, and the Penguins were dominant down the stretch. The Penguins took the season series from the Rangers, and top them in offense, defense, and significantly so on the PK. Both clubs have relatively anemic powerplays, but because the Rangers can’t seem to defend when a man-down, look for the Pens to close this out, despite Lundqvist maybe standing on his head. The only thing I’m not convinced about is whether Fleury, who has been out with a concussion, will play in this series. He’s practicing, but if he’s not on his game, they do have a capable rookie goaltender in Zatkoff. But, then, he’s a rookie. PIT in 6.

Atlantic

A1 FLA vs. WC1 NYI
How the hell is Jaromir Jagr, who is older than me, still playing in the NHL, and putting up 27 goals? Luongo had a solid season. The Islanders, despite Tavares, are inconsistent. The Panthers took the season series 2-1-0. Florida has a slightly better ranked offense and defense, though the Islanders are ranked better on PP, and significantly better on the PK. But Florida has been winning all year with a crappy power play, so I don’t see special teams being significant here. Both teams are pretty low possession teams, so that’s a wash. I’d like to see Tavares move on, but this isn’t his year, Luongo is better than Greiss. FLA in 7.

A2 TBL vs A3 DET
The Wings stumbled into the playoffs, but have accomplished that feat 25 years in a row. And did it in an era where only 16/30 teams make the playoffs for most of that run. However, their goaltending will let them down here. Jimmy Howard has been terrible at times, and though Mrazek has been pretty good, he’s had a fairly big slump here at the end of the season. Tampa has a much better offense and defense, and are pretty good on the PK, which they’ll need as PP is the only category that DET significantly beats the Bolts. Bishop has had a great year in net. The season series was tied, however. The Lightning are without Stamkos, out with a blood clot. On the basis of goaltending, TBL in 6.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central

C1 DAL vs. WC2 MIN
Dallas has the #1 offense this year to the Wild’s #18, and their PP has been clicking all year. Unfortunately DAL has a low ranked defense #19, to Min #9. But Dallas has some significant weapons in their arsenal . Benn, Seguin, Sharp, and Spezza will do some damage, whereas Minnesota doesn’t have Vanek and Parise has a back injury. But mainly I’m not convinced Devan Dubnyk is for real. Kari Lehtonen is. DAL in 6.

C2 STL vs. C3 CHI
This series is really tough to call. Chicago is the defending champs, and I don’t want to bet against Toews and Kane, especially since Crawford has played so well. The Blackhawks have a better offense and have the #2 PP in the league. But the Blues are sporting a #4 defense, #6 PP and #3 PK. Chicago has had really poor Fenwick possession stats in the last 20 games or so, often indicative of success in the playoffs, and they are not the possession team they once were. But Brian Elliot had an unreal 0.930 save percentage and 2.07 GAA. I want the Hawks, but I’m picking STL in 7.

Pacific

P1 ANA vs. WC1 NSH
Anaheim ranks #1 in the league in Defense, PP, and PK. They don’t score a whole lot 5-on-5, but haven’t needed to. Nashville is middling in the league in all aspects, and despite Pekka Rinne, the Ducks’ Gibson should outplay him. The Preds did win the season series 2-1. They also don’t take many penalties, which should counteract ANA’s power play somewhat. If the Predators go to the box, this will be over quickly. If they play shut-down hockey, they might have a chance, but I don’t think their defense can keep Perry and Getzlaf off the score sheet for a series. ANA in 6.

P2 LAK vs P3 SJS
This one is the most difficult to predict. San Jose has a potent offense but LA has an elite defense and Johnathan Quick. San Jose has a really good PP, but LAK aren’t far behind. Both clubs have middling PK. This really is a toss-up, even though the Sharks won the season series 3-1-1, but how can you bet against the tough, rough playoff style of the Kings, who have Drew Doughty? Quick might be able to steal the series, and he might have to. Quick > Jones + Reimer. LAK in 7.

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bet you're feeling silly about the pens-rangers prediction now that lundqvist is out

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bet you're feeling silly about the pens-rangers prediction now that lundqvist is out

You mean it might be over in 4?

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yeh

[Bilirubin]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilt...shed-1.3553630

RIP

One of Pop's kids came to my FIL's funeral. He knew everyone.

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meanwhile in Hockeytown, USA:

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meanwhile in Hockeytown, USA:

Please, let it be April 1st, or an Onion article. Buy a pizza for $5 and the red wings get thrown in for free. Ranch dip extra.

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to be fair, there are a lot of parallels between the Red Wings and Little Caesars pizza.

For example, most Little Caesars pizza was pretty good back about 6-7 years ago, but it's been sitting on the counter too long and has gotten stale and/or moldy. Instead of repeatedly rewarming it under a heat bulb, someone needs to throw that shit out and bake a new one for fuck's sake.

[Bilirubin]

The Olympia. The Joe.

The Slice? Pan Pan?

Ugh, terrible. But, cheese in the crust

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The Deep Dish

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The Pie

[Old Dan]

to be fair, there are a lot of parallels between the Red Wings and Little Caesars pizza.

do ya hafta earn yer Lil Caesars like ya earn yer Red Wings?

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In Round One, I went 5/8 with picks. Only slightly better than a monkey picking randomly. How the hell did Nashville beat the Ducks? Anyway, I did my 2nd Round picks, before they started, I'll spare everyone the analysis.

West:
SJS vs. NAS --> Sharks in 5
STL vs. DAL--> Blues in 7

East:
WSH vs. PIT --> Pens in 6
NYI vs. TBL --> Bolts in 7

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Seems reasonable, though I'd say Pens in 7.