ISIS

[Pavlov's Dog]

How come there hasn't been some type of international intervention? Haven't they basically admitted to ethnic cleansing? It seems like if they were mainly killing Christians and Jews there would be more of a reaction.

[rednoise]

There's been different types of international intervention. The US bombed IS military targets and European countries (and Turkey, iirc) are arming the Kurdish Peshmerga.

[Testycalibrated]

From news reports, it's looking like the kurds will be the group that IS will have to contend with.

[teeth!]

How come there hasn't been some type of international intervention? Haven't they basically admitted to ethnic cleansing? It seems like if they were mainly killing Christians and Jews there would be more of a reaction.

They have been killing Christians.

The attack on the Jewish Museum in Brussels earlier this year was an ISIS action: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27654505

There hasn't been an international intervention because the Iraq War really strengthened noninterventionist and isolationist movements in both the left and the right. Additionally, any sort of concerted response would involve supporting an independent Kurdistan, working closely with Assad, working closely with Iran, and establishing a considerable ground presence, which no one in the West really wants to do.

There's also a profound lack of leadership on this issue from Obama, Cameron, and Hollande. Harper is trying to step it up, but Canada is a pretty minor player in all this. Merkel is focused on what Putin is doing in the east.

[ksen]

There's been different types of international intervention. The US bombed IS military targets and European countries (and Turkey, iirc) are arming the Kurdish Peshmerga.

I'd be surprised if Turkey were arming the Kurds. But stranger things have happened I guess.

[rednoise]

I'd be surprised if Turkey were arming the Kurds. But stranger things have happened I guess.

i'm having a tough time finding the source again for this claim, so i'm not going to defend it. but the kurds that Turkey would be arming in this situation are not the same ones they're fighting against. i don't think in a million years they would arm the PKK, but i'd be willing to bet they would consider arming the Peshmerga in Iraqi Kurdistan if it would help buffer Turkey and the Islamic State.

[Pavlov's Dog]

They have been killing Christians.

The attack on the Jewish Museum in Brussels earlier this year was an ISIS action: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27654505

I said mainly.

There's also a profound lack of leadership on this issue from Obama, Cameron, and Hollande. Harper is trying to step it up, but Canada is a pretty minor player in all this. Merkel is focused on what Putin is doing in the east.

This is what I was getting at.

[teeth!]

i'm having a tough time finding the source again for this claim, so i'm not going to defend it. but the kurds that Turkey would be arming in this situation are not the same ones they're fighting against. i don't think in a million years they would arm the PKK, but i'd be willing to bet they would consider arming the Peshmerga in Iraqi Kurdistan if it would help buffer Turkey and the Islamic State.

The PKK are fighting alongide the Peshmerga.

I think Turkey is just happy to see the PKK operating outside its borders instead of inside them. However, it's also apparently the case that Turkish Kurdistan is largely de facto independent anyways and that the Turks are beginning to understand and accept that. Apparently Turkish Kurdistan is even issuing passports and engaging in border control. At least, this is according to my Turkish friend, who was out there recently.

[ToThePoint]

AP breaking news: 09.02.2014
ISIS Releases YouTube Video Showing Execution of Missing American Journalist Steven Sotloff

msn link

[el jefe]

I said mainly.

This is what I was getting at.

part of it is that al-maliki is not behaving the way we want him to, and we're withholding assistance in dealing with ISIS, to leverage him

mainly, our beef that he and his government promised to work with the sunnis on various issues internal to iraq, and then promptly steamrolled them on everything. that has pissed off the sunnis, to some extent understandably, and ISIS is capitalizing on that dissatisfaction to gain support in sunni areas. our interest here is (at least in the obama admin's estimation) to have a united, stable, and viable iraq. al maliki's policies are to a large extent driving disintegration of the country.

when ISIS started to make news with its alarming advances, al maliki begged for help, and we said we'd be glad to, and will start as soon as he reforms his government and includes the sunnis.

[teeth!]

This is what I was getting at.

Obama was elected on a platform of getting the fuck out of Iraq. Also, Obama has shown repeatedly that he's worse than Carter when it comes to international affairs.

Cameron is desperately juggling a strong anti-EU and anti-immigrant movement in his own country and the fact that a lot of these ISIS jihadis are British-born. There is not domestic will to go to war.

Hollande is fucking terrible and is going to get Le Pen elected if he keeps up his shitty governance. Moreover, his reticence about dealing with Putin's aggression is going to fuck over Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Merkel is rightly concerned about Russia's activity to the east and is banding together with the Eastern European countries against Russian expansionism.

[ksen]

part of it is that al-maliki is not behaving the way we want him to, and we're withholding assistance in dealing with ISIS, to leverage him

mainly, our beef that he and his government promised to work with the sunnis on various issues internal to iraq, and then promptly steamrolled them on everything. that has pissed off the sunnis, to some extent understandably, and ISIS is capitalizing on that dissatisfaction to gain support in sunni areas. our interest here is (at least in the obama admin's estimation) to have a united, stable, and viable iraq. al maliki's policies are to a large extent driving disintegration of the country.

when ISIS started to make news with its alarming advances, al maliki begged for help, and we said we'd be glad to, and will start as soon as he reforms his government and includes the sunnis.

So Obama took the side of his ISIS brothers.

I knew it.

[ksen]

Obama was elected on a platform of getting the fuck out of Iraq. Also, Obama has shown repeatedly that he's worse than Carter when it comes to international affairs.

[steve_bnk]

How come there hasn't been some type of international intervention? Haven't they basically admitted to ethnic cleansing? It seems like if they were mainly killing Christians and Jews there would be more of a reaction.

IMO because it was demonstrated in Afghanistan and Iraq that unless there is common cause among the people, short of massive occupation and control intervention is useless.

it is reported that some Iraqi forces are fighting with the Kurds. What has to happen is the Iraqis have to bleed together forming bonds that over ride clan, sect, and tribe.

From what I read there are over 100 distinct clans in Iraq.

The biggest clan rivalry in the region is Iran(Persians) vs Arabs. It is an old religious blood feud.

[gandalf]

if obama is teh false profit and michelle is teh wh0re of babyl0n it standz 2 reason that abu qatada is teh antichrist and teh caliph8 is teh start of a 1000 yr reign

[rednoise]

part of it is that al-maliki is not behaving the way we want him to, and we're withholding assistance in dealing with ISIS, to leverage him

mainly, our beef that he and his government promised to work with the sunnis on various issues internal to iraq, and then promptly steamrolled them on everything. that has pissed off the sunnis, to some extent understandably, and ISIS is capitalizing on that dissatisfaction to gain support in sunni areas. our interest here is (at least in the obama admin's estimation) to have a united, stable, and viable iraq. al maliki's policies are to a large extent driving disintegration of the country.

when ISIS started to make news with its alarming advances, al maliki begged for help, and we said we'd be glad to, and will start as soon as he reforms his government and includes the sunnis.

This is a pretty big point. ISIS is taking over social services and by the accounts of many Sunnis are doing it much better than al-Maliki ever even cared to do. It's the same situation as the West Bank. There are nationalist aspirations on the one hand, and who controls the ability to administer programs for the people to live are going to be able to set the path for the country and how those nationalist aspirations are expressed.

I'm betting that as more news about beheadings and massacres come from Iraq and Syria, a bipartisan movement of interventionists are going to influence US policy, the way they did with Clinton in the 90s. If Obama doesn't heed it, then he's going to be setting up a cakewalk to power for the Republicans in two years.

Aside from that, this is basically the Khmer Rouge all over again.

eta. as it happens, there are Muslims in the Western world that governments could ally with for support around bringing down the Islamic state. Norway and Sweden just got done, over the past couple weekends, with having joint protests of the Islamic state, which were headed up by Muslim leaders, including some pretty extreme ones. there were some pretty big demonstrations by Kurds in Paris, as well.

[rednoise]

This was interesting:

Due to Shiʻite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's refusal to fully integrate the Sons of Iraq into the Iraqi Security Services, "by 2013, the Sons of Iraq were virtually nonexistent". Sunnis formerly serving with the group either became unemployed or joined the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.[4]

these were specifically called out in the ISIS' news magazine:

http://sitemultimedia.org/docs/SITE_IS_HMC_Dabiq3.pdf

[daap-umop-bnp]

Aside from that, this is basically the Khmer Rouge all over again.

That's a really interesting observation.

[rednoise]

That's a really interesting observation.

I can't tell if it would play out exactly like that, but like when the Khmer Rouge attacked Vietnam and got themselves in a world of hurt, I'd bet if the Islamic State ever tried actually expanding beyond Syria and Iraq, they'd have their asses completely handed to them.

[Pavlov's Dog]

]

This is a pretty big point. ISIS is taking over social services and by the accounts of many Sunnis are doing it much better than al-Maliki ever even cared to do. It's the same situation as the West Bank. There are nationalist aspirations on the one hand, and who controls the ability to administer programs for the people to live are going to be able to set the path for the country and how those nationalist aspirations are expressed.

They say Mussolini had the trains running on time.

[rednoise]

They say Mussolini had the trains running on time.

They say that. Interestingly, he didn't, except maybe in Rome. But that perception definitely helped him. At least, until Hitler ran him over.

[gandalf]

So ru saying isis rly got stuff w0rking or is it just like ur percepti0n man

[rednoise]

So ru saying isis rly got stuff w0rking or is it just like ur percepti0n man

that's hard to tell atm. there are a lot of sunnis who have said that they get a better deal with the Islamic State, which is why the IS were able to take a lot of territory without much resistance in major sunni areas. that's not entirely unbelievable, considering how much al-Maliki has completely fucked everything up. of course, the reality is different for Shiites, Yezidis, Christians, etc.

eta. either way -- whether or not they're actually improving services and the standard of living, or whether it's just a strong perception -- the fact that they're being recognizes in this fashion is what is helping them out and helping them control what's going on.

[gandalf]

Ur retarded

[rednoise]

Ur retarded