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Messages - el jefe

1
iirc, you're a baby boomer and live in maryland....  right?

guessing your home value peaked in the 2000s housing bubble and hasn't gotten back to that?
2
you were in grade school in the 90s, so I don't believe you that you had more money then
3
They could easily divert money from other programs for training if that was an issue.
if you're talking about the military doing it themselves, I'm not so sure.  I think appropriations spell out X dollars for this program, Y dollars for that one.  maybe they could move some money around with creative lawyering, but I don't know that it would be easy.

what I do see is that gop congressmen might make disingenuous noise about needing more money in defense so ~ The Troops ~ can get better training, and maybe actually putting  a little more in training, but mostly putting new money into defense industry welfare and empire maintenance.
4
yeah

(eta: crosspost)
5
I'd be fine with putting more money into training. so much of our defense budget is not about the troops.  it's development and procurement of fancy new weapons that have no rational purpose because the cold war is over.  that and overhead on our vast array of overseas bases
6
so a lot of signs are pointing to a blue wave this fall.  but I am starting to worry, for two reasons:

1) complacency
2) the economy

for 1, I see democrats counting their chickens before they hatch, and I can't help feeling a reflexive worry in response.  so far, there is energy on left that is translating into better than expected performances in Virginia and alabama.  but I can't get the image out of my head of democrats thinking they have it in the bag and, in one way or another, failing to make their best effort at winning.

#2 worries me more.  the economy is doing really well right now.  donald trump probably has nothing to do with it (until he signed the tax bill a few weeks ago, he had not even done anything that could have affected the economy).  he inherited a growing economy from obama and is reaping the benefits.  but that doesn't matter.  american voters blame or credit incumbents for the economy, regardless of whether they had anything to do with it, and they make voting decisions based on their wallets more than anything else.  this could translate into padding the gop's performance this fall, stemming house losses and restoring their previously expected gains in the senate.  .....  and the situation looks worse when you get more particular.  of all the economic metrics that predict voter behavior, the most predictive is change in real disposal income.  although this expansion has been going on for a long time (starting back in late 2009), it has been a relatively slow expansion, and we are just now getting to the phase of the business cycle where growth is translating into wage gains.   as Testy has pointed out, for people without college degrees, the recession never ended.  well now it has, for them too.

so far, trump has defied the historical pattern by managing to get a much lower approval rating than economic factors would predict.  I'm worried that won't hold up.  the American voters have to get through the next 10 months either without deciding to be happy about rolling in more cash than they've had since the 90s, or without following their historic tendency to translate that into good feelings about the incumbent president's party.

are voters starting to translate "oh look we have more money" into "maybe trump's not so bad after all" (and, by extension, into "maybe I will show up and vote to re-elect my gop rep")?   well, approval of trump's handling of the economy has been roughly break-even for most of his first year (after a brief honeymoon).  however, recent polls might be picking up the beginnings of a climb into significantly net-positive territory:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval_economy-6182.html#polls
7
I am starting to wonder what is going on in foreign policy, particularly the middle East, while the media is entirely focused on the word shithole and the seriously demented shit here.

Seems that foreign policy is being affected by how the rest of the world sees the US since Trump became president.

Link

we are more respected now than anyone in the history of the world
8
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
trump isn't screwing his daughter, and I don't need him to be to validate how much I hate him
9
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
I can believe it
10
though I share your lol at the inclusion of San Diego and silicon valley.
11
Lol at leaving San Diego and San Jose and that other Bay area county in there. Welcome to the Senate, two additional Democratic senators.
iirc, contra costa is full of rich white people like ravenscape.  I'm guessing it is relatively centrist for a CA county.  though it is full of the kind of professionals that trump is driving away from the gop.  also California WASPs have always been a touch hippier than those back east.

eta:
lol, nevermind, wikipedia says it's like D+40, despite being full of rich white people like ravenscape.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contra_Costa_County,_California

so underscore the remarks about professionals with hippie flavoring.

eta2:  I feel strangely at home just imagining so many white liberals
12
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
I thought the sun was just going to go red giant and then collapse into a dwarf.  not massive enough to be a neutron star.
13
you should dig them up and say hi
14
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
new nickname for trump:  "the asteroid of awfulness"

h/t to the labour mp who coined it

https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-is-a-racist-asteroid-of-awfulness-says-senior-british-mp/
15
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
I didn't realize you were french

hey guys, we have a french friend
Native English, French resident.

wait, are you Nialler?
16
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
is it just me, or do recent french presidents have a tendency to start out really popular and then drop far and fast?  i.e., more than the usual honeymoon effect.
17
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
I didn't realize you were french

hey guys, we have a french friend
18
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
I don't know what you mean

GUYS, WHAT DOES HE MEAN?
19
second-hand confirmation through two republican senators

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sen-tim-scott-trump-s-shithole-countries-comment-is-accurate/article_e99c2fba-f7a9-11e7-a381-d7950e17b81f.html

tim scott (who wasn't at the meeting), says lindsey graham (who was there) told him privately that the "shithole countries" quote is basically accurate.  graham isn't confirming this directly to the public, but it seems pretty unlikely for a number of reasons that Scott would falsely quote him.
20
assuming fox and friends tomorrow morning will be a bunch of *smh* about the media's use of foul language
I was wrong

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/fox-and-friends-says-trump-should-walk-back-shithole-comment/article/2645728

even fox and friends (very sugar-coatedly) suggested trump should take it back
21
my conspiracy theory:  this buzz about bannon possibly cooperating with mueller is a threat to leverage trump into rejecting DACA
22
I'm betting every president between ~1880 and ~1920 dropped the n-bomb in the oval office, since white supremacism was the norm then.  and wouldn't be surprised if some between 1920 and 1960 had done it too.
23
I think we have nixon on tape saying racist shit, and lbj generally being crude and crass
25
right now there are a lot of hushed conversations going on between those republicans who weren't at the meeting and those who were.

"did he really say it?"

*looks around*  *exasperated nod*