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Topic: NH winter cooling (Read 2308 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • SR-71
  • Schmewbie
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #100
I don't see any cyclical trend, just an increasing trend in specific humidity and decreasing relative humidity, both with normal natural variability superimposed. 



  • SR-71
  • Schmewbie
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #101
Except here dammit!

You got your next ten years worth of precip all at one whack!  Are the SoCal fires out now? 

  • SR-71
  • Schmewbie
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #102
Cephus, perhaps you can see the trace of the AMO superimposed on the trend, but that signal is swamped by the magnitude of the increase in trend.  The increase in trend, that would be the AGW signal. 
  • Last Edit: December 29, 2017, 09:23:50 AM by SR-71

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #103
When ice cores are analyzed for ocean content, the SMOW (Standard Mean Ocean Water) data tells the story of both seasonal and long term changes in the ocean temperature  that was the source of the snow.  If they tested these ice cores for this (and they really should), we might know something about the changes in the ocean water that was the source of the snow.  (or we might not)

If the SMOW data shows the snow came from warmer water then we might know something about the source of the snow.  If the data shows it is ocean effect snow, not tropical moisture, then we might actually know something about the cause of the snow increase.  The problem with so much research is simple enough.  If you are only looking for one thing (global; warming signals), you won't actually be doing science.

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #104
Cephus, perhaps you can see the trace of the AMO superimposed on the trend, but that signal is swamped by the magnitude of the increase in trend.  The increase in trend, that would be the AGW signal. 

First thing to note is that no trend is any sort of AGW signal until you refute the null by demonstrating that the trend cannot have a natural cause.  Warming following Maunder and Dalton minima does not fall into that category.  For an example of the quite breathtaking hyperbole and arrogance of modern climate science the Dartmouth article says

Quote
"It is now glaringly clear from our ice core record that modern snowfall rates in Alaska are much higher than natural rates before the Industrial Revolution,"

Oh noes!  Natural rates before the industrial revolution also include mile thick ice sheets grinding over much of the northern hemisphere and everything in between.  These masters of irony might also like to note that it was 'ice core records' which demonstrated conclusively that carbon dioxide is not a driver of temperature.

Second thing is you can put whatever curve you like through your SH data but there is no upward trend at all from '97 onwards.  It doesn't correlate with the Alaskan snowfall data.



I agree that it is unlikely to be a result of AMO but is highly likely to be well correlated with the temperature hiatus.



Third noteworthy point is that air will carry about 7% more water for each °C temperature rise.  Even using NASA GISS figures



gets you an outside edge of 10% increase in water vapour over the period in which snowfall increased by well in excess of 100%.  In reality if we look only at tropical sea surface temperature anomalies it will likely be half of that or less.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #105
When ice cores are analyzed for ocean content, the SMOW (Standard Mean Ocean Water) data tells the story of both seasonal and long term changes in the ocean temperature  that was the source of the snow.  If they tested these ice cores for this (and they really should), we might know something about the changes in the ocean water that was the source of the snow.  (or we might not)

If the SMOW data shows the snow came from warmer water then we might know something about the source of the snow.  If the data shows it is ocean effect snow, not tropical moisture, then we might actually know something about the cause of the snow increase.  The problem with so much research is simple enough.  If you are only looking for one thing (global; warming signals), you won't actually be doing science.

Ya they did that

Quote
The secular increase in Denali and Mt. Logan ice core sea salt Na+ concentrations over recent centuries has also been interpreted as an extratropical response to warming Pacific SSTs, has a dramatic increase in the Mt. Logan δ18O record at 184037
Quote
Moore et al.15 found a positive and accelerating trend in Mt. Logan annual accumulation after the middle of the nineteenth century, and interpret it as indicative of a progressively more positive PNA. This was supported by Rupper et al.38 who confirm that high accumulation years on Mt. Logan are associated with a stronger wintertime Aleutian Low. Furthermore, the composite Mt. Logan and Mt. Hunter sea-salt Na+ calibrated Aleutian Low proxy similarly supports a progressive strengthening of the Aleutian Low over recent centuries to its strongest levels of the past 1500 years36 (Fig. S5).

They make the case that the Aleutian Low is being deepened through atmospheric teleconnections to the tropical Pacific and that semi-permanent weather system pulls in moisture from the Gulf of Alaska so the mix is a complex combo of tropical and extratropical signals.  What is ultimately being claimed is that an approximately 0.5°C rise in tropical SST is driving the whole show.  And maybe it is but the attempt to link that to the industrial revolution is childishly stupid.  Their chart shows the increase beginning over a millennium ago and a remarkably smooth acceleration to present with nothing to mark the industrial age as having any effect whatsoever.

  • SR-71
  • Schmewbie
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #106
Some problems with all that.

First, if there was a hiatus, it's over.

  • SR-71
  • Schmewbie
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #107
Second, there's no plausible natural forcing that would drive the observed warming.

Third, the RSS data.  The endpoints.  Carefully selected, aren't they?

  • SR-71
  • Schmewbie
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #108

We're talking about the arctic which is warming at double the global rate, so there's plenty of warming to support greater specific humidity, therefor greater snow accumulations.  There's also more open ocean in the vicinity rather than sea ice, so that's going to contribute to greater specific humidity. 

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #109
Some problems with all that.

First, if there was a hiatus, it's over.


That's SST - not global temp.  Not that I care about the unphysical concept of average global temp anyway but sometimes you have to talk to the lunatics in their own language.

  • SR-71
  • Schmewbie
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #110
True, but that's where most of the vapor for snow will come from, especially in boreal winter. 

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #111
Second, there's no plausible natural forcing that would drive the observed warming.

The data says otherwise. Over the turbulent Pleistocene climatic conditions switched very fast indeed.  Have a look at http://www.pnas.org/content/99/25/16117.full.pdf and http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007PA001457/full

Meanwhile they're still growing stuff on the banks of the Nile as they were at least 4,000 year ago in this unusually stable interglacial period where we obsess about tenths of a degree.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #112

We're talking about the arctic which is warming at double the global rate, so there's plenty of warming to support greater specific humidity, therefor greater snow accumulations.  There's also more open ocean in the vicinity rather than sea ice, so that's going to contribute to greater specific humidity. 

Yes I don't disagree.  It's a potential ice age trigger which has long been postulated.  Warming arctic ocean results in less ice cover and greater humidity which dumps more snow in high latitudes.  Arctic ocean albedo is probably increased since specular reflection from water at low solar incidence angles is greater than for irregular ice.  Increased snow cover over continental masses does increase albedo and forces cooling.  The support for any of this is sketchy at best but the glaciations happened anyway.

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #113
Every glacier building phase of the ice age has happened when CO2 levels were high

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • MikeB
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #114
Except here dammit!

You got your next ten years worth of precip all at one whack!  Are the SoCal fires out now? 
Uh, what?  We've had no rain, only 80F temperatures and static spark dry.  The Thomas fire is not out, although finally there are no more structures threatened.

  • SR-71
  • Schmewbie
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #115
Except here dammit!

You got your next ten years worth of precip all at one whack!  Are the SoCal fires out now? 
Uh, what?  We've had no rain, only 80F temperatures and static spark dry.  The Thomas fire is not out, although finally there are no more structures threatened.

That's good to hear.  That must've been something. 

I was exaggerating about the ten years, but California did get a lot of precip last year.  Record "water season", and LA at least got a few inches above average for a change. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/04/13/after-63-feet-of-snow-northern-california-mountains-break-record-for-wettest-water-year/?utm_term=.fe97c314ba90

http://www.laalmanac.com/weather/we13.php

Hope you get another good year of precip to help keep the reservoirs full. 


Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #116
Quote
Arctic ocean albedo is probably increased since specular reflection from water at low solar incidence angles is greater than for irregular ice.

Not sure that's correct. See here for instance.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #117
The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Group's 5 year study on Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic, SWIPA, is now complete.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_ESAm0iK7Q

AMAP, 2017. Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) 2017. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway. xiv + 269 pp.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #118
Monty Python would have been proud of that.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #119
Hey look! Cletus got something right! Yes, the members of Monty Python have shown quite a bit of support for the dissemination of climate science and efforts to curb climate change. See, for example, this video John Cleese did for the Monterey Bay Aquarium...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnh5PVMj8BU

And of course there's this Eric Idle tweet...


  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #120
When you post climate science interpretations that are equivalent to "The sky is Violet" I can only point out that you are sadly misinformed. 
That's just not true.  In any way.  And an intelligent person can refute even the most absurd statements.
Quote
When you post climate science interpretations that are equivalent to "The sky is Violet"
That does not happen, you made it up.  (see how easy it is to refute nonsense?)

Quote
I can only point out that you are sadly misinformed.
No, an intelligent person can use logic, reason and evidence to refute nonsense.  In your case, you do an excellent job of self mockery and illustrating your ignorance, so not much effort is required at all.

 :smug:




"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #121
The record old that has hit the US isn't unexpected, and actually fits the trend of winter cooling for the regions hardest hit.  What is a bit different is this cold is so widespread and extreme that it actually is leading to less snowfall for many areas. 
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • nesb
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #122
It's supposed to get up to 40 degrees in New Hampshire on Friday.

  • nesb
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #123
Therefor proving agw once and for all.

  • ToThePoint
  • search & destroy
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #124
Jan. 2018  -  Old Silver Beach in North Falmouth, MA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl0GSLcwHVs
"This is your life and it's ending one minute at a time."