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Topic: NH winter cooling (Read 4671 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #175

Meanwhile, back in the actual real world ...
Extreme cold winters fuelled by jet stream and climate change
Quote
The research, carried out by an international team of scientists including the University of Sheffield, has found that warming in the Arctic may be intensifying the effects of the jet stream's position, which in the winter can cause extreme cold weather, such as the winter of 2014/15 which saw record snowfall levels in New York.

Scientists previously had two schools of thought. One group believe that natural variability in the jet stream's position has caused the recent severe cold winter weather seen in places such as the Eastern United States and the UK. The other camp includes scientists who are finding possible connections between the warming of the Arctic - such as melting sea ice, warming air temperatures, and rising sea surface temperatures - and the emerging pattern of severe cold winter weather.

More intense winters (and their increased frequency) are a new phenomenon courtesy of a warming Arctic.

Super-cold winters in the UK and US are due to Arctic warming

And of course the extreme (and record) cold is hand in hand with record amounts of snow, because that is exactly what the data and scientific knowledge of weather both predicts, and explains.  Despite what any idiot tries to tell you otherwise.

The areas that should experience more snow because the oceans are warmer, like Greenland, high mountains, and maybe Antarctica, those regions we expect to see more snow when the oceans are warmer.  But that isn't what the studies are about.  Blue Hill is a good proxy for Boston climate change, because of it's location, and it's careful data gathering.

And of course it shows exactly what we know is reality.  As winters trend colder, snow amounts trend up.


"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #176
And of course the extreme (and record) cold is hand in hand with record amounts of snow, because that is exactly what the data and scientific knowledge of weather both predicts, and explains.  Despite what any idiot tries to tell you otherwise.

And of course it shows exactly what we know is reality.  As winters trend colder, snow amounts trend up. 




The record old that has hit the US isn't unexpected, and actually fits the trend of winter cooling for the regions hardest hit.  What is a bit different is this cold is so widespread and extreme that it actually is leading to less snowfall for many areas.

Hmmm...

  • SR-71
  • Schmewbie
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #177
In addition it would be helpful for proponents of agw to provide at least some sort of consistent physical hypothesis for oceanic heating via. downwelling longwave radiation.  Until such time as this vaguely hypothesised effect is rigorously demonstrated then the natural oceanic warming null remains unrefuted.

I don't see the problem.   Downwelling IR will heat water, or the hair on your head, or the seat of your car.  So will visible light.  It's not in any way a mysterious process. 

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #178
The problem is penetration depth and temperature gradients.  Water is effectively opaque at CO2 IR emission band frequencies and penetration depth is a few μm only.  The energy then is being deposited in a very thin skin where evaporation is the dominant thermal driver and the additional energy from downwelling radiation is carried into the atmosphere as latent heat of vapourisation.  In addition there exists a sea surface temperature gradient such that the top approximately 1 mm skin is cooler than the bulk below.



Where (a) is night and (b) daytime temperatures.

It isn't thermodynamically possible for a cooler surface layer to heat a warmer subsurface bulk via. radiation, conduction, convection or mechanical mixing.  Note that all of the downwelling IR energy is being deposited in the first few microns of that cooler surfaace layer whereas shortwave solar heating is what is driving the increased bulk ocean temperatures below during daylight hours.

This paper for which I only have the abstract confirms the cool ocean skin effect and here it is being used to demostrate a mechanism for enhanced CO2 uptake in the oceans.  As so often in modern climate science where everything is about the single parameter of carbon dioxide it simultaneously topedoes any chance of downwelling IR ocean heating.

I found a paper posted on Judith Curry's blog which attempts to make an extremely tortuous case for IR oceanic heating.  You perhaps will discount this paper out of hand since it features on a heretical blog but from my perspective it fails owing to the rueful admission

Quote
The problem is that we don't know how the air above the ocean changes when we go from no forcing to forcing. Two extreme cases have been considered: (i) the air does not change as the ocean warms, and (ii) the air temperature above the ocean tracks the ocean surface temperature and the relative humidity remains constant as the air temperature rises. Unfortunately, the calculation turns out to be extremely sensitive to this assumption, and as a result it is impossible to make accurate quantitative estimates of ocean warming without much better data on the changes that occur in the air above the oceans.

All of which is why I say there is no consistent hypothesis for a longwave oceanic heating mechanism, let alone any supporting data.




Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #179
As winters trend colder, snow amounts trend up.
Except that winters aren't trending colder.

More accurate thread title: Increasing frequency of extreme cold events in the context of NH winter warming.
  • Last Edit: January 30, 2018, 07:53:19 AM by BenTheBiased

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #180
As winters trend colder, snow amounts trend up.
Except that winters aren't trending colder.
Except where they are
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #181
As winters trend colder, snow amounts trend up.
Except that winters aren't trending colder.
Except where they are

Which is very few places...

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #182
Except where they are
Which is very few places...
Well that is another form of fraud, and the one that becomes increasingly more separate from reality with each passing winter.

Usually a scammer will use 1970 (or another date in the "coming ice age period") to try and deceive.  I'm quite sure they also decieve themselves, because that is most often the person easiest to fool.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #183
Why is it important that winters are "warming faster" than any other season?
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-are-warming-all-across-the-us-15590?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Warming%20Winters%20General%20Press%20Release&utm_content=Warming%20Winters%20General%20Press%20Release+CID_bcccc611e21bacb8c79c07eb4960fd97&utm_source=CC%20Monthly%20Newsletter&utm_term=Warming%20Winters
Quote
While the U.S. as a whole has seen a warming trend that has raised annual average temperatures by 1.3°F over the past 100 years, warming varies seasonally, and it's winter that has seen the fastest warming.


An analysis of data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network of weather stations shows that the coldest states are warming the fastest, and across the country winter warming since 1970 has been more than four-and-a-half times faster per decade than over the past 100 years. Winter nights across the country have warmed about 30 percent faster than nights over the whole year. Some states cooled or failed to join the warming trend over the past 100 years, but since 1970, every state has shown winter-warming.

That is a flat out lie, thought to be realistic, I think the people promoting it actually believe they are being scientific, even when they are not even close to using the scientific method.

The reason is simple, the theory clearly states (if you can ever find the theory, good luck with that) that the most warnming will be observed in the NH winter, over land, in the extratropics.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #184
The newest modified version of the theory, based on climate models changes the reason for warming, but still shows the most warming will happen in the NH cold season, and of course those models also show decreasing snow and ice, because that is always what a warmer climate results in.  Snow and ice does not increase when winters warm, or become "milder".  By "ice" they mean glacier ice, or sea ice, or frozen lakes and rivers.  The same predictions of milder winters do claim there will be more freezing rain, rather than snow, and temperatures become closer to the freezing point, so that winter precip falls more often as rain than snow.

The idea that more snow will result from global warming isn't yet included in most models, and of course based on the assumptions used to create the model, they can't predict more snow, because that isn't how the models are programmed.  And the data, the actual observations of what happens, show more snow id directly connected to colder temps, not warmer.

Except for the high altitude regions, and areas that always will see snow in winter.  But even some of those areas show, of course, that warmer conditions result in less snow.  Or, if you look at in reverse, less snow means warmer conditions.

  • Last Edit: January 31, 2018, 06:51:38 AM by F X
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #185
Except where they are
Which is very few places...
Well that is another form of fraud, and the one that becomes increasingly more separate from reality with each passing winter.

Usually a scammer will use 1970 (or another date in the "coming ice age period") to try and deceive.  I'm quite sure they also decieve themselves, because that is most often the person easiest to fool.

What about 1998?

ETA: You can see in the map I posted that I started it in 1895. Am I deceiving myself somehow by doing that?

ETA2: If we can see more "with each passing winter" that there aren't very few places that are getting colder, why is almost every place on that map still warmer than it was a century ago? How many more winters do you think will need to pass before the map that starts in 1895 shows widespread NH cooling?
  • Last Edit: January 31, 2018, 07:01:18 AM by BenTheBiased

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #186
Why is it important that winters are "warming faster" than any other season?
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-are-warming-all-across-the-us-15590?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Warming%20Winters%20General%20Press%20Release&utm_content=Warming%20Winters%20General%20Press%20Release+CID_bcccc611e21bacb8c79c07eb4960fd97&utm_source=CC%20Monthly%20Newsletter&utm_term=Warming%20Winters
Quote
While the U.S. as a whole has seen a warming trend that has raised annual average temperatures by 1.3°F over the past 100 years, warming varies seasonally, and it's winter that has seen the fastest warming.


An analysis of data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network of weather stations shows that the coldest states are warming the fastest, and across the country winter warming since 1970 has been more than four-and-a-half times faster per decade than over the past 100 years. Winter nights across the country have warmed about 30 percent faster than nights over the whole year. Some states cooled or failed to join the warming trend over the past 100 years, but since 1970, every state has shown winter-warming.

That is a flat out lie
What is? There are a lot of claims in that quote.

  • SR-71
  • Schmewbie
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #187
The problem is penetration depth and temperature gradients.  Water is effectively opaque at CO2 IR emission band frequencies and penetration depth is a few μm only.  The energy then is being deposited in a very thin skin where evaporation is the dominant thermal driver and the additional energy from downwelling radiation is carried into the atmosphere as latent heat of vapourisation.  In addition there exists a sea surface temperature gradient such that the top approximately 1 mm skin is cooler than the bulk below.



Where (a) is night and (b) daytime temperatures.

It isn't thermodynamically possible for a cooler surface layer to heat a warmer subsurface bulk via. radiation, conduction, convection or mechanical mixing.  Note that all of the downwelling IR energy is being deposited in the first few microns of that cooler surfaace layer whereas shortwave solar heating is what is driving the increased bulk ocean temperatures below during daylight hours.

This paper for which I only have the abstract confirms the cool ocean skin effect and here it is being used to demostrate a mechanism for enhanced CO2 uptake in the oceans.  As so often in modern climate science where everything is about the single parameter of carbon dioxide it simultaneously topedoes any chance of downwelling IR ocean heating.

I found a paper posted on Judith Curry's blog which attempts to make an extremely tortuous case for IR oceanic heating.  You perhaps will discount this paper out of hand since it features on a heretical blog but from my perspective it fails owing to the rueful admission

Quote
The problem is that we don't know how the air above the ocean changes when we go from no forcing to forcing. Two extreme cases have been considered: (i) the air does not change as the ocean warms, and (ii) the air temperature above the ocean tracks the ocean surface temperature and the relative humidity remains constant as the air temperature rises. Unfortunately, the calculation turns out to be extremely sensitive to this assumption, and as a result it is impossible to make accurate quantitative estimates of ocean warming without much better data on the changes that occur in the air above the oceans.

All of which is why I say there is no consistent hypothesis for a longwave oceanic heating mechanism, let alone any supporting data.

The problem is penetration depth and temperature gradients.  Water is effectively opaque at CO2 IR emission band frequencies and penetration depth is a few μm only.  The energy then is being deposited in a very thin skin where evaporation is the dominant thermal driver and the additional energy from downwelling radiation is carried into the atmosphere as latent heat of vapourisation.  In addition there exists a sea surface temperature gradient such that the top approximately 1 mm skin is cooler than the bulk below.



Where (a) is night and (b) daytime temperatures.

It isn't thermodynamically possible for a cooler surface layer to heat a warmer subsurface bulk via. radiation, conduction, convection or mechanical mixing.  Note that all of the downwelling IR energy is being deposited in the first few microns of that cooler surfaace layer whereas shortwave solar heating is what is driving the increased bulk ocean temperatures below during daylight hours.

This paper for which I only have the abstract confirms the cool ocean skin effect and here it is being used to demostrate a mechanism for enhanced CO2 uptake in the oceans.  As so often in modern climate science where everything is about the single parameter of carbon dioxide it simultaneously topedoes any chance of downwelling IR ocean heating.

I found a paper posted on Judith Curry's blog which attempts to make an extremely tortuous case for IR oceanic heating.  You perhaps will discount this paper out of hand since it features on a heretical blog but from my perspective it fails owing to the rueful admission

Quote
The problem is that we don't know how the air above the ocean changes when we go from no forcing to forcing. Two extreme cases have been considered: (i) the air does not change as the ocean warms, and (ii) the air temperature above the ocean tracks the ocean surface temperature and the relative humidity remains constant as the air temperature rises. Unfortunately, the calculation turns out to be extremely sensitive to this assumption, and as a result it is impossible to make accurate quantitative estimates of ocean warming without much better data on the changes that occur in the air above the oceans.

All of which is why I say there is no consistent hypothesis for a longwave oceanic heating mechanism, let alone any supporting data.







Okay, so what DOES heat the oceans? 

  • SR-71
  • Schmewbie
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #188
http://www.tiashaj.com/pdfs/waterIRFilter_tiasha_joardar.pdf

Quote
6. Abstract
Solar radiation consists of light with wavelengths that range from far infrared to deep ultraviolet and beyond. In many situations it is useful to be able to separate the visible portion of the solar spectrum from the infrared (IR). In this project the absorption of infrared radiation in water has been investigated and compared to the absorption of visible light in water. Experimental results confirmed the hypothesis that water absorbs IR much more effectively than visible light. This result was then applied to two practical situations. The first application involved the filtering of IR radiation in sunlight before it enters through the window of a house by placing a layer of water outside the window. Experiments confirmed the hypothesis that placing a layer of water outside the window of a house would lower the temperature inside compared to a window with no water layer placed outside it. This is expected to result in lower energy consumption for cooling a house and will be a topic of future research. The second application involved filtering IR from sunlight incident on a solar cell by placing a layer of water on top of the cell. It was hypothesized that such a water-based IR filter would keep a cell cooler than one without such an IR filter and therefore results in a higher output voltage. Experimental results proved this hypothesis to be correct.

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #189

Okay, so what DOES heat the oceans? 

The sun
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #190
Water, or water vapor, is very very good at absorbing certain frequencies of IR

Most of the IR from the sun (which is something like 56% of the energy coming into the planet's atmosphere) is absorbed long before it reaches the ground.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • SR-71
  • Schmewbie
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #191
Water, or water vapor, is very very good at absorbing certain frequencies of IR

Most of the IR from the sun (which is something like 56% of the energy coming into the planet's atmosphere) is absorbed long before it reaches the ground.

At least you're not claiming IR can't heat water because evaporation. 


Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #192
Especially considering evaporation stores energy which is released through condensation. It's like convection doesnt work in water or something.
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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #193

Okay, so what DOES heat the oceans? 


You didn't read the post did you.  I stated quite clearly what heats the oceans.  It shouldn't really be necessary to point out what heats the oceans but here's what I said anyway.

Note that all of the downwelling IR energy is being deposited in the first few microns of that cooler surface layer whereas shortwave solar heating is what is driving the increased bulk ocean temperatures below during daylight hours.

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #194

Okay, so what DOES heat the oceans? 

Let's rephrase that:

What is causing the heat content of the oceans to rise?

"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #195
http://www.tiashaj.com/pdfs/waterIRFilter_tiasha_joardar.pdf

Quote
6. Abstract
Solar radiation consists of light with wavelengths that range from far infrared to deep ultraviolet and beyond. In many situations it is useful to be able to separate the visible portion of the solar spectrum from the infrared (IR). In this project the absorption of infrared radiation in water has been investigated and compared to the absorption of visible light in water. Experimental results confirmed the hypothesis that water absorbs IR much more effectively than visible light. This result was then applied to two practical situations. The first application involved the filtering of IR radiation in sunlight before it enters through the window of a house by placing a layer of water outside the window. Experiments confirmed the hypothesis that placing a layer of water outside the window of a house would lower the temperature inside compared to a window with no water layer placed outside it. This is expected to result in lower energy consumption for cooling a house and will be a topic of future research. The second application involved filtering IR from sunlight incident on a solar cell by placing a layer of water on top of the cell. It was hypothesized that such a water-based IR filter would keep a cell cooler than one without such an IR filter and therefore results in a higher output voltage. Experimental results proved this hypothesis to be correct.

Too fucking right water absorbs IR much more effectively than visible light.  I already explained at length that so effective an absorber of IR at CO2 emission band frequencies is it that it is completely absorbed within a few microns.  Notwithstanding that there isn't any measurable heating of even that micron thin ocean skin by feeble downwelling radiation - probably because it it is dwarfed by evaporative cooling at the interface aided by the all but ceaseless ocean winds.

Look, just try and pretend like you have some sort of physical curiosity for a while and run a few basic numbers.  It is a theoretically predicted and experimentally verified fact that CO2 emission IR is absorbed by water over a few microns.  Now consider - however improbable it might be - that none of that energy goes into evaporation and all of it is captured by the bulk ocean.  The average depth of the oceans is around 4 km.  Just off the top of your head, how likely do you think it is that the oceans have been heated by significant measurable amounts over the course of the industrial revolution by mixing of that microns thick skin into the kilometers deep ocean?

But that's just the kind of gross magnitude inconsistency which generates alarm bells in scientists.  Run a few numbers of your own and see if you can get a handle on how long it would take to heat the ocean to a given temperature by this mechanism.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #196

Okay, so what DOES heat the oceans? 

Let's rephrase that:

What is causing the heat content of the oceans to rise?



How is heat content measured?  And what is the mechanism for the increase?

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #197
Especially considering evaporation stores energy which is released through condensation. It's like convection doesnt work in water or something.

:stare:

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #198
How is heat content measured? 
Levitus et al. 2012
Quote
And what is the mechanism for the increase?
That was my (and, I think, SR-71's)  question!
"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #199
How is heat content measured? 
Levitus et al. 2012

So heat content is determined by measured temperature - in a shock result.  Why then did you wish to rephrase SR's specification of temperature into heat content?

And what is the mechanism for the increase?
That was my (and, I think, SR-71's)  question!

Not sure exactly how many times I'm going to have to say it before you finally comprehend - but it's shortwave solar radiation.