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Topic: NH winter cooling (Read 4671 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #225
Given that U.S. winters warmed from 1896 to 1998, and then cooled from 1998 to 2017
What are you smoking?

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #226
the alleged NH winter cooling
Seriously, think about what you are writing
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #227
So that's a no then?

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #228
Of all the questions you've pointedly ignored, I think this might be the most telling...
Even in the contiguous U.S., one of your all-important "areas where a lot of people actually live," if you extend the trend by just 4 years, making it 1994-2017, it's a warming trend. So why is a 20-year cooling trend more significant to you than a 24-year warming trend that encompasses it?
Is that something you've thought about at all? Is it something you don't understand? Or is it something you understand too well to allow yourself to engage with it?

ETA: And of course if you start it just two years later, making it 2000-2017, it's also a warming trend. So the question can equally be asked, why is a 20-year cooling trend more significant to you than an 18-year warming trend that it encompasses?

Either way, you are specifically cherry-picking a trend that shows cooling in the context of obvious warming. Why? Do you just find it fascinating that that's a thing that's possible? Do you not even realize it's what you're doing? Or are you being dishonest?
  • Last Edit: February 02, 2018, 09:38:03 AM by BenTheBiased

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #229
You can't just make shit up and expect anyone to bother to engage you.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #230
What do you think I made up?

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #231
You are so clueless you probably don't even realize you are doing it.
Either way, you are specifically cherry-picking a trend that shows cooling in the context of obvious warming. Why? Do you just find it fascinating that that's a thing that's possible? Do you not even realize it's what you're doing? Or are you being dishonest?
You seem to confuse your own fallacies with a scientific discussion.  Then double down by asking why you are not getting "answers" to your absurdities.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #232
Is that what you think I'm making up? That you're cherry-picking that trend? That's the point I'm trying to demonstrate to you by showing you that you can isolate either short-term cooling trends or short-term warming trends depending on what start/end dates you pick, but the long-term trend is still towards warming. I'm not making that up. I'm arguing it and backing up my arguments with facts. You may disagree with my argument, but that doesn't mean I'm making anything up or committing any fallacies.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #233
Where's the NH winter cooling trend here, FX?

Doesn't look like there's much of one, does there?

What about here?

Nope, not much of one there either. And yet if we start somewhere between those two points, there is one. Isn't that odd?

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #234
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #235
Flagstaff, AZ, T-shirt weather at end of Jan. and beginning of Feb.  In the 32 years I've lived here snow tires and a Carhartt coat used to be the norm.  Just an observation.
  • Last Edit: February 03, 2018, 04:04:06 AM by Dean W

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #236
you can isolate either short-term cooling trends or short-term warming trends depending on what start/end dates you pick, but the long-term trend is still towards warming.
Except where it isn't
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #237
every time I see this thread title, i wonder what is unusual about New Hampshire cooling off in the winter

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #238
We all do, we all do
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #239
The winter cooling trend for much of the Northern Hemisphere is just so interesting.

Quote
We investigate the relative magnitudes of the contributions of surface temperature trends from different latitude bands to the recent warming hiatus. We confirm from five different global data sets that the global-mean surface temperature trend in the period 1998-2012 is strongly influenced by a pronounced Eurasian winter cooling trend. To understand the drivers of this winter cooling trend, we perform three 20-member ensembles of simulations with different prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice in the atmospheric model ECHAM6. Our experimental results suggest that the Arctic sea ice loss does not drive systematic changes in the Northern Hemisphere large-scale circulation in the past decades. The observed Eurasian winter cooling trend over 1998-2012 arises essentially from atmospheric internal variability and constitutes an extreme climate event. However, the observed reduction in Arctic sea ice enhances the variability of Eurasian winter climate and thus increases the probability of an extreme Eurasian winter cooling trend.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL065327/full

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #240
The winter cooling trend for much of the Northern Hemisphere is just so interesting.

Quote
We investigate the relative magnitudes of the contributions of surface temperature trends from different latitude bands to the recent warming hiatus. We confirm from five different global data sets that the global-mean surface temperature trend in the period 1998-2012 is strongly influenced by a pronounced Eurasian winter cooling trend. To understand the drivers of this winter cooling trend, we perform three 20-member ensembles of simulations with different prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice in the atmospheric model ECHAM6. Our experimental results suggest that the Arctic sea ice loss does not drive systematic changes in the Northern Hemisphere large-scale circulation in the past decades. The observed Eurasian winter cooling trend over 1998-2012 arises essentially from atmospheric internal variability and constitutes an extreme climate event. However, the observed reduction in Arctic sea ice enhances the variability of Eurasian winter climate and thus increases the probability of an extreme Eurasian winter cooling trend.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL065327/full



Bummer that polar bears haven't gotten on board with NH cooling.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/05/polar-bears-losing-weight-arctic-sea-ice-melts-climate-change-canadian-study


Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #241
you can isolate either short-term cooling trends or short-term warming trends depending on what start/end dates you pick, but the long-term trend is still towards warming.
Except where it isn't

Which is very few places. We already did that part, remember? I posted the map that showed almost the entire world has seen warmer winters over the past century. Is there something about that you disagree with?

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #242
If the NH winter (boreal winter) cooling trend was just regional cooling, natural variation, where small areas showed cooling rather than the expected warming, it certainly could be handwaved away and ignored.
Quote
The observed Eurasian winter cooling trend over 1998-2012 arises essentially from atmospheric internal variability
:smug:

(I know it's not a "small area" but still.)

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #243

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #244
This is exactly why "debating" on the internet is such a waste of time.  (not that there is anything wrong with wasting time, as evidenced by the vast amount of time I see people here wasting)
Which is very few places.
Eurasia to the religious like believer is "very few places".  Same for the Eastern United States.  It just doesn't matter to the insane global warmist.  No matter what evidence there is, they refuse to even see it.  Instead we get the classic denial.
We already did that part, remember?
See?  That's not even an argument, it is not even hand waving, it is just nonsense.
I posted the map that showed almost the entire world has seen warmer winters over the past century. Is there something about that you disagree with?
And there is the final denial.  It's like talking to a Jehovah Witness.  It can be amusing, but no realistic person actually believes anything is going to change their belief.


"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #245
This is exactly why "debating" on the internet is such a waste of time.  (not that there is anything wrong with wasting time, as evidenced by the vast amount of time I see people here wasting)
Which is very few places.
Eurasia to the religious like believer is "very few places".  Same for the Eastern United States.  It just doesn't matter to the insane global warmist.  No matter what evidence there is, they refuse to even see it.  Instead we get the classic denial.
We already did that part, remember?
See?  That's not even an argument, it is not even hand waving, it is just nonsense.
I posted the map that showed almost the entire world has seen warmer winters over the past century. Is there something about that you disagree with?
And there is the final denial.  It's like talking to a Jehovah Witness.  It can be amusing, but no realistic person actually believes anything is going to change their belief.
I think the problem may be that you seem to be unable to follow what we're talking about. I'm making what I think are very clear statements that refer very clearly to things we've talked about, and you say "it is just nonsense." Do you have memory issues?

Here's the context of my "very few places" comment...

you can isolate either short-term cooling trends or short-term warming trends depending on what start/end dates you pick, but the long-term trend is still towards warming.
Except where it isn't

Which is very few places.

Can you follow that much at least? I said, "the long-term trend is still towards warming." You responded, "Except where it isn't." And I said, "Which is very few places." Now you might not have been clear on what I meant by "the long-term trend," but that's why I said...

We already did that part, remember? I posted the map that showed almost the entire world has seen warmer winters over the past century.

I included that to remind you that what I meant when I said "the long-term trend" was 1895-2017, a map of which I had posted earlier. Here it is again for reference...



As you can quite clearly see (I damn well hope), there are very few places on that map that show cooling since 1895. Part of the North Atlantic just south of Greenland is one. A small patch of eastern Australia is another. You know what isn't? Fucking Eurasia. You know what else isn't? The fucking Eastern United States. So why in the fuck would you think I was referring to those places when I said "very few places"?

Now I have been, as far as I can tell, very clear about what I'm talking about in this post. And I have actually reposted the map I was referring to that shows the winter trend from 1895 to 2017, which I have been very clear about as being what I am referring to when I say "the long-term trend." And as you should be able to see if you are not blind, there are very few places on that map that show cooling. So I ask again, is there something about that you disagree with?

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #246

Bummer that polar bears haven't gotten on board with NH cooling.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/05/polar-bears-losing-weight-arctic-sea-ice-melts-climate-change-canadian-study

Sadly those poor population-doubled bears didn't get the Guardian's memo

https://www.factcheck.org/2008/06/polar-bear-population/
Sadly Cephus didn't get the memo about apples and oranges.

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #247
Of all the questions you've pointedly ignored, I think this might be the most telling...
Even in the contiguous U.S., one of your all-important "areas where a lot of people actually live," if you extend the trend by just 4 years, making it 1994-2017, it's a warming trend. So why is a 20-year cooling trend more significant to you than a 24-year warming trend that encompasses it?
Because it's an idiots question. You make assumptions, then demand somebody explain your errors.  And when you are ignored you claim ignoring your idiocy means you must be correct.  Because you are an idiot.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #248
Of all the questions you've pointedly ignored, I think this might be the most telling...
Even in the contiguous U.S., one of your all-important "areas where a lot of people actually live," if you extend the trend by just 4 years, making it 1994-2017, it's a warming trend. So why is a 20-year cooling trend more significant to you than a 24-year warming trend that encompasses it?
Because it's an idiots question. You make assumptions, then demand somebody explain your errors.  And when you are ignored you claim ignoring your idiocy means you must be correct.  Because you are an idiot.
Alternative explanation: You're the idiot. You don't understand my question. You've expressed yourself so unclearly that any plain reading of your position comes off as a misinterpretation to you.

Why don't you try explaining what incorrect assumptions or other errors you think I'm making? Just saying "you are an idiot" isn't much of a case.

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #249
After 8 years of clearly explaining things to you, and providing evidence, you still act like you can't understand anything. 

Idiot.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭