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Topic: NH winter cooling (Read 4049 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #50
My favorite bits...

The new paradigm is to look at the actual observations and compare them with the individual ensemble outputs.

They're doing what now? Testing their models against empirical observations? Tell me more about this crazy "new paradigm"!

They then identify which models are closest to the observations and give those model outputs a higher weighting in computing the grand canonical average.

They what? Refine their models based on their observations? What kind of crazy nonsense is that?

Obviously enough If you arrange for some algorithmic procedure to generate a combined output whilst weighting those which are currently running closest to the observations then you can in effect never be wrong.

Obviously enough, if you refine your theories to match your observations, your theories make accurate predictions. What a dastardly trick!

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #51
Lolz.  Your link was an evidence-free opinion piece without even so much as a reference to any paper or data.  The paper it's opining on - when I found it - is paywalled.  I gave an opinion on your referenced opinion.  Maybe try posting some evidence if you want evidenced refutation but since I've been asking you for any evidence at all for years now without success it looks that isn't going to happen.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #52
My favorite bits...

The new paradigm is to look at the actual observations and compare them with the individual ensemble outputs.

They're doing what now? Testing their models against empirical observations? Tell me more about this crazy "new paradigm"!

They then identify which models are closest to the observations and give those model outputs a higher weighting in computing the grand canonical average.

They what? Refine their models based on their observations? What kind of crazy nonsense is that?

Obviously enough If you arrange for some algorithmic procedure to generate a combined output whilst weighting those which are currently running closest to the observations then you can in effect never be wrong.

Obviously enough, if you refine your theories to match your observations, your theories make accurate predictions. What a dastardly trick!

Ben you didn't understand a single word.  You're regressing ever further into some dementia-like state of incoherent rambling.  Couldn't even begin to unscramble this level of world-decoupling without fmri.  Really don't want to witness another human mind unravelling in this way so with regret you're on ignore.  Take it easy and good luck with the coming planetary conflagration :wave:

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #53
LOL. Oh noes. Ignored by Cephus! What will I do?

BTW, I can't believe I left this part out...

Unless it becomes a cooling world of course.

What? The theory could be falsified?! This truly is a strange "new paradigm"!

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #54
The sarcasm tell
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #55
Guys it's almost Christmas and it's unusually hot here in Greece. It rained tonight for the first time in weeks and it was still warm! WTF is happening
Who even made the rule that we cannot group ducks and fish together for the simple reason that they are both aquatic? If I want to group them that way and it serves my purpose then I can jolly well do it however I want to and it is still a nested hierarchy and you can't tell me that it's not.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #56
Alaska just reported one of the most extreme snowfall rates on record: 10 inches per hour

Quote
Burt told us that on Dec. 2, 1966, 12 inches fell in 60 minutes in Copenhagen, N.Y., and on Jan. 26, 1972, Oswego, N.Y., was inundated with 17.5 inches in a two hour period. Not surprisingly, both of these records were the result of the snow machine blowing off Lake Ontario.

The Alaska storm was definitely not lake-effect, but a similar amount of moisture was involved. An atmospheric river -- a plume of very wet air -- transported warm, Pacific Ocean moisture all the way up into the high latitudes and smacked into the mountainous coast of Alaska.

The atmospheric river was aided by the North American Winter Dipole, which is a "fancy term to describe abnormally warm conditions in the West and cold conditions in the East," according to the Capital Weather Gang's own Jason Samenow. "Under such a pattern, the jet stream, the super highway for storms that divides cold and warm air, surges north in the western half of the nation, and crashes south in the eastern half."
The daily high temps during this record snowfall event were in the mid-  to upper-30's. Fairly balmy for this region at this time of year.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #57
The sarcasm tell
What does it tell you?

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #58
You don't know what it is.  That much is clear.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #59
The pronoun without an antecedent tell

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #60
Quote
So, wait a minute, we can expect more cold weather because of climate change?

Before anyone cues the climate debate, Cohen is quick to add that his findings do not conflict with climate scientists who say the world is warming.

"Nothing in my papers or my ideas argues that the Earth shouldn't continue to warm," he said.

In his recent paper, "An observational analysis: Tropical relative to Arctic influence on midlatitude weather in the era of Arctic amplification," Cohen argues that areas of the Eastern U.S., Europe and East Asia may be affected by warming in the Arctic.

The effect of that warming is more cold, and possibly more snow, in these areas during winter.

Climate science has long held that the Tropics exert the greatest influence on Earth's climate system because they are the warmest, largest and most energetic region on the planet.

Climate change may produce more severe weather and a hotter planet, but temperature variations will be less severe, according to scientific consensus.

"All the conventional wisdom in the field has been about how we're going to get this muted swing in temperature," Cohen said.

In other words, a warming world, and a warming Arctic, should mean warmer weather and fewer cold extremes.
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2016/12/15/435515.htm

If Cohen is right, or the solar scientists are right, or both are right, the models and conventional wisdom about global warming is wrong. We will not observe winter warming, which the theory predicts should be the greatest signal of AGW. Even the newest idea from MIT will be wrong.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #61
Everything you just posted is wrong. What you think is the "conventional about global warming" is wrong. That you believe there is a prediction that warming winters is the greatest signal of AGW is wrong. That you believe this researcher has shown that warming winters are not the strongest signal is wrong. That you believe we will not observe winter warming is wrong. That you believe colder winters in eastern North America, Europe and East Asia means winters are not warmer globally is wrong.
  • Last Edit: December 21, 2017, 04:45:55 PM by Autonemesis

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #62
Everything you just posted is wrong. What you think is the "conventional about global warming" is wrong. That you believe there is a prediction that warming winters is the greatest signal of AGW is wrong.
That was a phrase from the Cohen paper.  The theory is quite clear about what CO2 forcing should cause.  That we are not seeing the expected signal is a major area of research, except for those who refuse to look at observations. 
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #63
Wrong. A smorgasbord of wrong. It's hard to choose where to start.

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #64
No, and an intelligent person has no trouble arguing over something they disagree with.  An idiot will just post "wrong" and not support their ideas.

Cohen shows exactly why his theory is valid, and as time goes by we get more information to see if it's a representation of nature.  All the conventional models that predict warming show less temperature variation as the planet warms. Less cold extremes, less snow, (except for high altitudes and polar regions), the most warming in the boreal winters, over land, and at high latitudes.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

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  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #65
The question of "why" we have observed more extreme cold and snow, along with a cooling trend for boreal winters, is a very important one.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

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  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #66
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

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  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #67
The burning questions are simple.  Is this because you have used fossil fuels?  Or is it Nature having the last word?
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #68
Merry Christmas, I hope you don't freeze to death before global warming kills us all.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • Faid
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #69
Well, here in Greece there's certainly no chance of that.



Happy Holidays!
Who even made the rule that we cannot group ducks and fish together for the simple reason that they are both aquatic? If I want to group them that way and it serves my purpose then I can jolly well do it however I want to and it is still a nested hierarchy and you can't tell me that it's not.

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #70
Erie gets record snowfall during Christmas blizzard

http://www.post-gazette.com/news/nation/2017/12/26/Christmas-brings-Northeast-blizzard/stories/201712260041

Quote
And another 19 inches fell before dawn Tuesday, bringing the total to 53 inches -- the greatest two-day total in commonwealth history. The previous record was the 44 inches that fell in Morgantown in March 1958.

And it's not over for Erie - the snow is expected to continue falling through Wednesday.



"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #71
In a year-end Winter's Tale the snows came early for me - despite CRU Dr. Viner's pitiful predictions from 2000 about little children not knowing what snow was anymore - and there's no white Christmas here this season.   Much of the rest of the country is still having snow though and it's an official white Christmas since there was snowfall in some parts of the country on Christmas day.  Hardly the full deep and crisp and even though so it's away to Alaska for some off-piste fun.  There's something strange happening in the high places there.  Apparently snowfall in the mountains of Alaska has doubled since the beginning of the industrial revolution and has done so because of man-made global warming.

https://www.dartmouth.edu/press-releases/warming_seas_double_snowfall-north_around_north_americas_tallest_peaks.html

Quote
The research not only finds a dramatic increase in snowfall, it further explains connections in the global climate system by attributing the record accumulation to warmer waters thousands of miles away in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans.

My immediate reaction to this alarming news was that the glaciers in Alaska must surely be advancing at a furious rate.  They would have to be.  Until I remembered that the rich and famous keep going to Alaska to weep great salty well documented tears over receding glaciers there and it is almost as much of a poster catastrophe as dead polar bears.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/alaska-s-glaciers-are-retreating/

Difficult to know what to make of these diametrically conflicting phenomena in a world of settled science.  I don't have time to figure it out so will ask at the next scheduled meeting of the Flat Earth Society instead.

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #72
I honestly can't remember ever going for Christmas shopping without a coat. Not once in my life.

there's a first for everything I guess.

Anyway, they say the temp will go down in the next few days. Let's see...
Who even made the rule that we cannot group ducks and fish together for the simple reason that they are both aquatic? If I want to group them that way and it serves my purpose then I can jolly well do it however I want to and it is still a nested hierarchy and you can't tell me that it's not.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #73
No, and an intelligent person has no trouble arguing over something they disagree with.  An idiot will just post "wrong" and not support their ideas.

When you post climate science interpretations that are equivalent to "The sky is Violet" I can only point out that you are sadly misinformed. I have no idea where you got these ideas, so I can't offer a more detailed rebuttal, except to say, read some other source.

Quote
Cohen shows exactly why his theory is valid, and as time goes by we get more information to see if it's a representation of nature.
Then stop representing it as if that has already happened.

Quote
All the conventional models that predict warming show less temperature variation as the planet warms.
No, they don't.

Quote
Less cold extremes, less snow, (except for high altitudes and polar regions),

Incorrect.
Quote
the most warming in the boreal winters, over land, and at high latitudes.

Once again, wrong. There are no models in use today the predictions of which can be summarized as you have just done. You are refuting a strawman.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #74
The question of "why" we have observed more extreme cold and snow, along with a cooling trend for boreal winters, is a very important one.

And it's quite curious that you seem to be completely ignorant of the existence of current research tackling this question.