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Messages - el jefe

1
idk.  he also pulled a 180 on the bipartisan healthcare fix.  shortly after his executive order, he opposed it.  then he told people he wanted a bipartisan deal soon.
I suppose that's part of his usual destructive-blackmail strategy: "Whoops, I keep blowing everything up and setting it on fire, such a shame, wouldn't it be great if we all came together and stopped things from being blown up and on fire? Think about it while I shoot this puppy".

But the McConnell thing is weirder IMO. Maybe Mitch convinced Trump that he doesn't want him as an enemy?
it's really bad for both of them if they don't get tax reform done.  and they stand a better chance of success if they aren't publicly trashing each other.  maybe trump advisers got that point through to him.
2
Gotta say, even ignoring all the President Camacho going on, I'm disappointed in the slant rhymes.

I mean, any singer worth anything should be able to make 'abroad' and 'God' rhyme.
they do rhyme.  at least for those of us with the cot-caught merger.
3
assuming this passes and gets signed into law, this sets up an insurance cliff in two years, at which point the democrats will have more leverage.  either they will take at least one house of congress in 2018 (=> actual power), or they will remain out of power, and it will more certain that any negative developments will be blamed entirely on trump and/or the gop, heading into a presidential election year.
4
murray and Alexander reached a deal to extend the subsidies for two years in exchange for giving states some flexibility to weaken essential benefits.  trump apparently is on board.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/17/us/politics/alexander-murray-deal-obamacare-subsidies.html?referer=https://politicalwire.com/
5
oh look, he waited all the way until late morning and put it "nicely"

https://apnews.com/cd337697c2f04726b69076627c014eb7?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP

Quote
Trump said in a radio interview with WMAL in Washington that "people have to be careful because at some point I fight back." The president added "I'm being very, very nice but at some point I fight back and it won't be pretty."

McCain, a former Navy pilot who spent 5½ years in a Vietnam prisoner of war camp and is battling brain cancer, offered a simple response to Trump: "I have faced tougher adversaries."
6
trump is flip-flopping on whether he supports alexander-murray.  shortly after his executive order, he seemed to oppose it.  then the next day he told alexander he wanted it done and done soon.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/13/trump-opposes-bipartisan-obamacare-rescue-plan-243752
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/16/trump-bipartisan-senate-obamacare-deal-243846

guessing it was pointed out to him in between that he may have actually given the democrats more leverage.  ....  he may also have gotten private pushback from congressional republicans who were reportedly caught off guard by the executive order, and don't need another really tough vote on top of the legislative logjam they're already trying to battle through over the next few months.
7
idk.  he also pulled a 180 on the bipartisan healthcare fix.  shortly after his executive order, he opposed it.  then he told people he wanted a bipartisan deal soon.
8
had a prof say that if you're stuck on a problem, have a beer "or whatever else you need" and try again.  he lowered his voice for the quoted part.
9
john mccain received something called the liberty medal today.  I've never heard of it before, but joe biden was the one who gave it to him in the ceremony, so I'm guessing it is both a legit honor and free of partisan flavor.

anyway, in his remarks, mccain said this...

Quote
To fear the world we have organized and led for three-quarters of a century, to abandon the ideals we have advanced around the globe, to refuse the obligations of international leadership and our duty to remain 'the last best hope of earth' for the sake of some half-baked, spurious nationalism cooked up by people who would rather find scapegoats than solve problems is as unpatriotic as an attachment to any other tired dogma of the past that Americans consigned to the ash heap of history.

https://politicalwire.com/2017/10/16/bonus-quote-day-236/

it's a shame it came couched in neoconservatism and Yanking off, but I'll take it.

twitter reply due in about 4 hours
11
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
surprise surprise, moore's brazenly hypocritical too*.  he started this nonprofit advocating christian causes or whatever, pledging not to get a salary from it and to put all the money toward the cause.  he even said on his tax returns that his salary from it was 0.  trouble is, he paid himself a salary of $180k/yr for several years.

*yes, on top of being a racist, dominionist fossil

also, this isn't just about hypocrisy.  he might go to prison.  possibly while a sitting senator.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/354952-roy-moore-made-180k-per-year-from-charity-despite-claiming-he-received-no


eta: of course, guapo's odds are like 80% that trump would pardon him if and when he were convicted
12
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
my faith is unshakable

the only question is whether you choose to join us on the path of the righteous
13
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
lol @ half of republicans wanting to start a nuclear war

*blows brains out*
14
Austria gonna Austria
15
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
It is frustrating how the MSM cannot manage to push Trump on the issues mentioned in the last few posts. There is basically nothing about them on the front pages of the NYT and WaPo all weekend. In general, mainstream society is failing to treat the Trump era as the extreme national crisis that it is.
with you a trillion percent.  though I think the problem is more fundamental.  too many people, for various reasons, don't care enough about the merits of anything to be able to recognize how much damage he is doing and could do.  non trump republicans have allowed themselves to be thoroughly distracted by whataboutism about the democrats and dumb conspiracy theories about the media.  and then there are all the vaguely centrist low information voters who, e.g., don't get that the president doesn't decide who the fbi investigates and therefore doesn't see the problem with the president pressuring the fbi to drop an investigation of his friends.

anyway, if people cared more, the press would do more to emphasize how not normal this is.  though I realize it's a feedback loop, and people's apathy probably owes in part to shitty journalism.

And with the Democratic party seemingly doubling down on proven losing strategy, and running away from alternatives that might be effective, the unfortunate conclusion is that the USA has accepted Trumpism. Even if there is a backlash against him that gives the Democrats some power, there will just be another backlash in another 4 or 8 years that brings in someone just as bad or worse.
I don't know that the democrats have settled on their strategy yet, nor is it totally clear to me what the strategy should be.  obviously back away from free trade and don't pick nominees who are boring, old news, and have a lot of baggage.  but beyond that, it depends on how you diagnose trump winning, and people are still scratching their heads about that.  though I would say that they should be careful not to overcorrect their strategy.  trump's win wasn't some resounding mandate, it was electoral college bullshit.  he won a lot of big states by small margins, and squeaked through on top with only 46% of the popular vote.

as to whether the country will stay locked in an endless cycle of backlashes and frontlashes, yeah, it looks that way and is depressing.  maybe the supreme court will strike down gerrymandering, which would hopefully reduce some of the polarization.  and I'm hoping the overwhelming shittiness of trump's presidency will eventually become apparent to a solid majority, and he will serve as a cautionary tale against nominating and electing demagogues and unqualified jackasses for a few decades.  though "hope* is the operative word there.  and I'm afraid trump has moved the Overton window in a lot of ways.
16
Science / Re: The Big Bang Theory is Unfalsifiable
haha, Loran believes in "gps" lol what a idiot

welcome back, boris
17
Arts and Entertainment / Re: Harvey Weinstein
Intimidation via legal threats is part of it. So is the power someone like that can have over so many people's careers and livelihoods.
right.  and maybe also a self-fulfilling perception that the guy is "untouchable".  must add to the intimidation if it looks like "he can get away with this"
But also it's kind of hard to stealthily record someone when they catch you off guard. I mean, if you had any idea you'd be having to record someone, well, then maybe you'd have enough warning signs that make it possible for you to get out or avoid the situation in the first place. You don't walk into a meeting thinking, "Hmm, this dude might try to rape me so maybe I need to get on Facebook live just in case." If you suspect that might happen, you just don't fucking go. And I can't imagine being in panic mode trapped with a piece of shit like that and thinking "oh shit I better get my phone out!". To catch the gropers, you'd also have to be recording every minute you're out among other people.
good points

But don't forget to thank the reasonable, thoughtful, intellectual men who always - for the sake of argument, you see - helpfully remind everyone that we need to be cautious about accusations because there are crazy bitches out there who make shit up just to ruin a poor man's life. And don't forget the thoughtful men who are so very deeply concerned that things will go so far that even shaking a woman's hand will land with them going to court over sexual harassment and they're just saying that they're already deathly terrified of having any professional meetings with women or even flirting with a woman at a bar. Because the feminists will crucify them!

You may think you're making a point but what you're telling everyone else is to not bother saying anything because even reasonable people will litigate your accusation to death, and when it's he said/she said, there will always be enough people around who think it's better to err on the side of "not ruining a man's life." So unless you have physical evidence, it is literally pointless unless there are dozens of other people like you saying the same thing happened to them. Even then, you can still get elected President of the United States or end up getting away with it like Cosby or end up being "rehabilitated" and make your way back like O'Reilly. Looking at all of that, why would a single person stick their neck out to say something? It accomplishes basically nothing.
right.  or when the police catch the guy being rapey on tape, and the DA whose campaign he contributed to says he doesn't see a case.
18
Arts and Entertainment / Re: Harvey Weinstein
I find it depressingly unsurprising that this kind of thing happens a lot in general.  what does surprise me is that so many men in highly visible positions (weinstein, o'reilly, ailes, trump, cosby, etc.) have gotten away with maintaining these bubbles of secrecy for years on end.  even now, in 2017, when everyone has a smartphone, so anything and everything can be recorded and leaked, and be trending on twitter within a half hour.  how the f do they get all the people involved to keep their mouths shut?  my best guess is they are just that good at keeping track of who knows what and keeping everyone intimidated by the threat of retribution.
19
Arts and Entertainment / Re: Harvey Weinstein
this cy vance person seems to understand his prosecutor job as making sure the law doesn't apply to the rich and powerful

eta: I assume without looking that his job is elected, and he has gotten both campaign contributions and endorsements from the trumps and weinstein
20
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
yeah I guess not.  I was half asleep when I read that.
21
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
I'm having a lot of trouble with the Hannity thing.  that one cut through the numbness and revived my ability to wtf.
22
Science / Re: The Big Bang Theory is Unfalsifiable
ha ha Loren believes in relativity what a idiot lol
23
Politics and Current Events / Re: Shooting in Vegas
I hear one shooter.

Those whipcrack sounds are rounds passing close, not the sound of firing. When a rifle is fired and you're downrange, the first sound you'll hear is the bullet passing (whip crack), then a moment later you hear the gunshot. If you're really quick witted, you can use the time gap to estimate range.
if I'm understanding correctly, we're talking about supersonic bullets, and the two sounds you hear are 1) the shock wave of the passing bullet, followed by 2) the muzzle blast, which comes later because it's been plodding along at the speed of sound
24
reportedly, congressional republicans were taken by surprise on this (which is something I was wondering about).  seems like it is a unilateral, impulsive flail by trump.  apart from a few moderates voicing opposition and a few tea partiers (including paul ryan) voicing support, gop is mostly being noncommittal for the moment.  however, a large segment of them, including people beyond the moderate fringe, have previously said they oppose this approach.  e.g., senator cornyn (r - tx - asshole) said he doesn't want to "cause further hardship for the people of Texas just to prove a point".  sounds like he sees the political risk.

so it seems like there is some appetite among a large subset (possibly still a minority) of congressional republicans, for giving clarifying statutory authorization for CSR.  however, it would probably also be toxic in their intra party politics to have voted to "bail out obamacare".  moreover, I am guessing most republican voters of every kind are loving this executive order and beating off about it.  I also think trump will see a poll bump for it (consisting of disappointed conservatives coming back to him), and gop primary voters will care a lot about how this is handled.  so voting for restoring funds is hard for them to do.

still, even under the rosiest projections of how the blame game might go, i don't think gop congresspeople can be certain they wouldn't take more of the damage if they allow the insurance markets to blow up.  and they are already worried about a blue wave next fall.  so they don't want to vote against it either.

trump just threw a very tough vote in their lap, on top of the legislative logjam they are already looking at.  and I think he badly misread the politics of this, and doesn't get that he has once again handed leverage to the democrats.  the democrats have seen republicans  make dumb gambits before, and are good at the drill of calmly letting them suffer the wrath of the public until they come back begging for a way out.
25
Science / Re: The Big Bang Theory is Unfalsifiable
though he was a participant in my favorite internet exchange of all time...

boris:  that's not yellow, that's gold, you idiot
mason: gold is yellow, you idiot