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Messages - el jefe

I will make good soylant green

Same. Politics is some dumb game that doesn't involve anything serious.

Btw, on another note, my MIL has been on a tear about Bill Clinton  (how come we have to start with Republicans if we're all of a sudden sooooo concerned about sexual harassment and assault? !) and Ted Kennedy and also this doctor who exposed the Clintons in Haiti was found dead!!!!!!!

This is the level of delusion and yay team we're dealing with.
this is one of guapo's laws

people who have a randomly intense hatred of the clintons usually turn out to believe the clintons have people killed and/or have a criminal syndicate, etc.
given they only have 2 or 3 weeks before their senate margin drops from 3 votes to 2, the negotiators working on the tax bill have a newfound sense of urgency.

they're going to scramble and flail this mess across the finish line.

one dynamic I'm hoping will materialize is that jones' win gives more leverage to marginal senators now, even before Jones gets seated.  ...  if moore had won, mcconnell could have double crossed collins and passed the final bill with 50 votes + pence.  but now someone like johnson or flake can decide they want a sweeter deal, and withhold their vote until after Jones is seated and then ask for more.
I don't think that was ever clear
for reals, we can't undo the 2016 election and probably won't see trump impeached.  but he can be beaten in 2020 and delegitimized in the national memory.  already several people high up in his campaign and administration are headed to prison.  probably more will follows.  that helps with both goals.

also, the special counsel investigation has continually highlighted what is now an established and widely - accepted fact that russia was, at the very least, essentially campaigning for trump.  and there is broad agreement among everyone who isn't alt-right that that's unacceptable.

mueller/russia gate matters at least in these respects
are you threatening me?!?!
I remembered virginia and almost listed it too, but decided it was clearly 4th behind these three

not that it wasn't a good thing, but it was more or less expected.  virginia is a blue state.  has been for years now.
trying to decide how to rank the three least bad days since trump won:

- jones beats moore
- rosenstein appoints mueller
- aca repeal fails (several different days, but lumped together)

You'll Rue The Day !

So many opportunities for people to whip out that phrase and nobody uses it anymore.  :sadcheer:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

moore digging in.  but Jones' margin now up to 1.5%.  also:
Shortly after Moore's speech, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill (R) was asked by CNN's Jake Tapper if he expected "anything other than Mr. Jones being the next senator from the state of Alabama."

"I would find that highly unlikely to occur, Jake," Merrill replied.


Ex-McConnell aide thanks Bannon 'for showing us how to lose the reddest state in the Union'

guapo says moore wins this by 5

you're welcome, everyone
jones' margin looks high enough that probably there at least won't be an automatic recount.  it's also high enough that, even with a recount, it would be hard for the gop to overcome through (further) shenanigans.
if they don't ram a conference version of this dogshit tax bill through the senate in the few weeks before Jones gets seated, then the window for major legislation in trump's first (only?) term closes almost completely.  and then the great negotiator would likely have proven to be a big fat failure at legislating.
it's still a good thing
no I think this is just to finish sessions' term.  I think the seat is up again in 1 or 3 years.
this is a lot bigger than northam et al.  this is seismic.  this seat was not even supposed to be in danger for the gop. 

and now mcconnell's unworkable margin of 3 votes is down to 2.  on any given bill, he can afford to lose 2 senators out of mccain, collins, flake, murkowski, and corker.
that was surprisingly close to gracious

eta: the trump one
The RNC sold whatever sad sliver they might have been passing off as a soul, and they got nothing for it.
no kidding
TR, we have done it again
I'm interested in data on suburban professional whites.  looking for more data points for this phenomenon of trump driving them out of the party.
nyt and 538 alike are saying turnout is up in the black belt and down in rural white areas

In case anybody isn't clicking through on this one and reading the thread, she is claiming as a continuously active voter in every major election she and many others have had their voter status suddenly changed to inactive. This means in on order to vote you have to complete a form which asks you things like which county you were born in, ID numbers, etc..

If I understand correctly this means you don't get a regular ballot but a special one that has to go through processing which chucks it into the trash if the form is incorrect, incomplete, or for any reason at all is unverifiable. So if you were born out of state, a naturalized citizen, or for any of another half dozen reasons you're shit out of luck.

Oh, and also! The Alabama State Supreme Court responded to the challenge by the sitting government who asserted they didn't have to keep any hard copy evidence of the ballots. In Alabama's system people complete a paper ballot which is scanned and the digital form is what is stored and counted. You be happy to learn that SC Judges issued a stay on the lower courts order to save all documentation for examination after the vote and the Alabama officials are now free to delete everything pretty much once the tally is complete.

Have a nice fucking day Alabamians!  :parrot:

yeah, you're always guaranteed the right to cast at least a provisional ballot.  IIRC: if the number of provisional ballots cast is less than the margin of victory from other ballots, they don't bother counting them.  if they do decide to count them, they first canvass them all to decide whether they're compliant.  a 3 - person panel then votes on whether each one is compliant, and whether it's clear who they're voting for.  there's one rep from each major party and one theoretically neutral tie-breaker.  (a lot of people worry at this point in the explanation that the tie breaker won't be neutral, but supposedly the panels vote unanimously most of the time, so that turns out not to be much of an issue).  the percentage of provisional ballots that end up being found compliant and actually counted varies a lot by year and state, but it is generally under 50%.