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Topic: obamacare repeal effort thread (Read 13052 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1475
and they have apparently decided not to combine aca repeal with tax reform, in next FY's reconciliation bill.  there was talk of doing that, but leadership decided (wisely) just to do tax reform with it.

https://www.axios.com/senate-budget-keeps-tax-cuts-aca-repeal-separate-2491006040.html

this means that, during FY18 (which starts sunday), aca repeal would have to be done in a way that requires 60 votes in the senate.  this makes it unlikely for the foreseeable future.  the only game in town now is the (now-revived) bipartisan effort to fix obamacare.  I suspect that will fail because the right and the gop donor class won't accept it, and leadership won't even put it on the floor; even if it did pass, it would probably be halfway reasonable stuff.

barring a highly unlikely pro-gop wave in 2018, it's hard to see them seriously trying again in the next congress.  i could imagine another stab at it in 2021, by a re-elected trump who brought in congressional majorities on his coattails, but by then the law would be more than 10 years old and very entrenched; and after several years without the scary black guy as president, I don't know that the gop would still be obsessed with it.  there are a lot of big IFs built into this last scenario.

sorry to jinx it with a guaprediction, but I think we are witnessing the end of the obamacare repeal effort, right here and now.  it is dying with a whimper, as the FY17 reconciliation bill is expiring, and the gop is deciding to use next FY's reconciliation on something else.

  • MikeS
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1476
Probably doesn't need a new thread for the plane trip scandal since he's going to be the sacrificial cow for the ACA Repeal failure.

Tom Price Resigns As Health And Human Services Secretary

Quote
Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price has resigned his post just a week into a growing scandal over his frequent use of chartered and military flights that cost American taxpayers more than $1 million.
...
As health and human service secretary, Price also led Trump's unsuccessful campaign to repeal Obamacare. Trump told a crowd of Boy Scouts over the summer that Price would be "fired" if he couldn't wrangle the votes in the Senate to pass a repeal measure.

Let them eat each other. 

  • ravenscape
  • Administrator
  • Triggered
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1477
We'll see how the ACA fares in the upcoming enrollment period.  I think Trump can kill it whether it's repealed or not.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1478
he can, but not without risking political disaster, and I think even he gets that

eta: he said something in an interview a few months back, like "the longer I sit in this chair, the more the country will hold me responsible for the problems with obamacare."  it was unusually lucid of him.  if he really thinks that, in a serious and non-adhd way,  then he must realize that actively sabotaging obamacare would come back on him.  (and active sabotage would be required, if all the projections of the marketplaces being more or less stable are correct)

  • Last Edit: September 29, 2017, 06:55:39 PM by el jefe

  • ravenscape
  • Administrator
  • Triggered
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1479
I'm pessimistic.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1480
I see progressives, acting as private citizens, picking up some of the slack about promoting it.

  • SkepticTank
  • Global Moderator
  • Calmer than you are
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1481
he can, but not without risking political disaster, and I think even he gets that

eta: he said something in an interview a few months back, like "the longer I sit in this chair, the more the country will hold me responsible for the problems with obamacare."  it was unusually lucid of him.  if he really thinks that, in a serious and non-adhd way,  then he must realize that actively sabotaging obamacare would come back on him.  (and active sabotage would be required, if all the projections of the marketplaces being more or less stable are correct)



Is it more-or-less stable?  If prices keep going up people will drop out.  Insurance really is not affordable for those who earn a little too much to qualify for subsidies.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1482
projections made a few months ago by the cbo and some outside group both said the exchanges were more or less stable for the foreseeable future.  I assume both of them modeled some incarnation of supply and demand curves, which include price as a variable.  so I'm guessing the answer to your question is yes.

  • ravenscape
  • Administrator
  • Triggered
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1483
I see progressives, acting as private citizens, picking up some of the slack about promoting it.

I do, too.  That's a thing that is happening.  But, the enrollment period has been halved and the website is going to be shut down weekly during the shortened period.

The physical ability for people to sign up will take a hit.  And, ads targeting healthy young people, who must be in the system in order for it to work, aren't going to happen.

I think the ACA will probably stagger along in 2018, especially in states with their own exchanges.  After that, not so much.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1485
also, if the democrats retake one or the other house of congress in 2018, they can hold gop priorities hostage and use them as leverage to get gop and trump to prop up exchanges.

  • ksen

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1487
i keep telling yall. dem ticket in 2020 is going to be trump/schumer.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1488

  • ksen
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1489
It's a trap.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1490
Trump just tweeted that he's ready to deal with Democrats on health care



:ohmy:

schumer should propose repealing the medical device tax, and tell trump it is "pretty much the heart of obamacare".  then, to prove it, he can call obama on speaker phone and say they're considering it, to which obama can reply "don't you dare touch the medical device tax, you assholes!  you'll destroy obamacare, and my whole legacy with it!"

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1491
I'm pessimistic.
welp, you were right, I was wrong.  he is indeed douchey and reckless enough to go the executive sabotage route.

schumer's talking about insisting on a permanent funding solution as part of the upcoming budget talks.  there are supposedly a large number of republicans who don't like the idea of screwing with these subsidies, and support a legislative patch to guarantee the funding, absent a broader healthcare overhaul.  and a couple of moderate republicans have come out this morning criticizing trump's decision.  ...  does this translate into schumer being able to secure the subsidies as part of a fiscal cliff budget deal?  difficult to foresee /yoda

as far as fallbacks, a number of states are planning both to sue over this and to pick up some of the slack.  both stand a chance of mitigating the damage.

longshot thought:  if this ends up prompting a bunch of republican governors to join the medicaid expansion, I will die of laughter

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1493
insurers are suing too.  according to this, they will probably win in the end, but the legal battle will be messy and take time.  also, the experts don't anticipate courts would grant an injunction against trump's move in the mean time.

  • MikeS
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1494
Trump says his DHHS people have investigated Obamacare and found no funding mechanism in place for these subsidies.  Calling it "an insurer give-away" or something to hide its real nature from the rubes.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1495
their legal argument is that because money hasn't been appropriated for the subsidy, they can't constitutionally fund it.  but not all federal spending has to be appropriated.  a lot falls under "mandatory" spending (entitlements and debt interest, e.g.).   and the counterargument to trump is that the language of the aca makes these subsidies mandatory spending.  so the gop can't effectively get rid of them by just not appropriating.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1496
I'm sure trump honestly looks at this as an "insurer bailout", because that is how fox news portrays it, and he thinks fox news is journalism.  I am sure he is blind to the causal connection to a large number of working class people losing insurance as a direct consequence of this.

I think he understands obamacare as just a thing that democrats did, and doesn't get that it bought health insurance for 30 million people.  and so I think he overestimates the leverage he gains by threatening to destroy it.  it's not just democrats' feelings that are on the line, it's a lot of real people's insurance coverage.  and the political careers of republicans representing their states.

  • RAFH
  • Have a life, already.
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1497
I'd now be a cripple in continuous intense pain without the ACA.

I was in progressive severe pain from my knees, and without the replacement surgery I would be uttterly useless now, if not dead. A year ago I was reduced to walking with a cane when I could walk. I was close to resorting to a wheelchair.

But through the miracle of modern surgery, I can walk again. pretty much without pain. True, they were severely painful procedures, but now I am pretty much pain free and able to walk and even dance. At least as long as I don't get carried. away. ACA was a huge success for me. I would have never been able to pay for those surgeries. I'd have never even been able to talk to a doctor about doing them.

Are we there yet?

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1498
And when you say "ACA", what you mean is "the nightmare of ObamaCare", right?
"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1499