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Topic: Trumpocalypse (Read 77120 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8100
The problem with all of that reasoning is that they're kind of committed now. That's what I think you don't get. They've committed to a plan of action (repealing obamacare, cutting taxes) that require Trump to be on their side, and if they don't do those things, they lose donor support. They're also committing to this voter disenfranchisement program, so they really don't have much in the way of exit strategies. Their only hope is to pander to their hardcore base and try to harm everyone else's access to votes. At this point, they've pissed off everyone with ethics, so they can't really go back to the center and say "hey, I've really always been a moderate" because you can't do what they've done so far and pretend to be a moderate. So either they need to be prepared to throw their political career away to make a principled stand (Collins, Corker, McCain) or they need to double down. Most are going to continue to do the latter, and that's what we're seeing.

If you think the republicans are going to suddenly decide that supporting Trump is politically insolvent, you're just not paying attention.
I partly agree to the extent that they're stuck with him for various reasons, which is why I dont think they'll ever impeach him or invoke the 25th.  what I think you are missing is that they've already failed to repeal obamacare, and are apparently headed for failure on tax reform.  this year was their best chance to do both, and they tried, and apparently won't get them done.  so it doesn't matter that they're committed, they've already lost.

i don't think they'll totally abandon either goal (especially not tax reform), but I do think they'll see them as unachievable for now, and shift the focus to other things that are achievable, and might placate their donors and voters.  moderate immigration reform would throw a bone to business, and btw give gop candidates a way to claim to swing voters that they don't hate brown people.  criminal justice has the distinction of being favored by everyone but the alt right.

to be clear, my reason for thinking the spat with corker is a tipping point for the gop is not that it's an embarassment or violation of norms for the president to trash talk one of his own party's senators.  in those respects, it is less than nothing compared to other shit he's said.  I think it is critical because of the sheer strategic stupidity of trump picking a fight with a key senator just as they're trying to salvage the year with tax reform.  they see that and it tells them he's even going to fuck up their last chance for a legislative win, and they are saying to hell with this guy.  I think that is reflected in the criticism of trump suddenly coming from all over the right this week.

and again, I don't predict them doing anything heroic like removing trump from office.  I just think they'll ignore him and govern around him to the extent possible.  they'll stop cooperating with him.

  • meepmeep
  • Administrator
  • zombiecat queen
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8101
yes, the republicans will govern, that thing that they're really good at

  • ksen
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8102
 :rofl:

Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8103

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8104
they try to please their donors and voters.  it's hard to do that without legislative wins.  and now their best bets for getting any wins no longer involve working with trump.

*assuming they fail at tax reform, which is not a sure thing yet

and, as I'm sure meep realizes, the incentives are different for an out-of-power protest party, and one with complete control of the government.

Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8105
guapo gonna guap

Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8106
The problem with all of that reasoning is that they're kind of committed now. That's what I think you don't get. They've committed to a plan of action (repealing obamacare, cutting taxes) that require Trump to be on their side, and if they don't do those things, they lose donor support. They're also committing to this voter disenfranchisement program, so they really don't have much in the way of exit strategies. Their only hope is to pander to their hardcore base and try to harm everyone else's access to votes. At this point, they've pissed off everyone with ethics, so they can't really go back to the center and say "hey, I've really always been a moderate" because you can't do what they've done so far and pretend to be a moderate. So either they need to be prepared to throw their political career away to make a principled stand (Collins, Corker, McCain) or they need to double down. Most are going to continue to do the latter, and that's what we're seeing.

If you think the republicans are going to suddenly decide that supporting Trump is politically insolvent, you're just not paying attention.
I partly agree to the extent that they're stuck with him for various reasons, which is why I dont think they'll ever impeach him or invoke the 25th.  what I think you are missing is that they've already failed to repeal obamacare, and are apparently headed for failure on tax reform.  this year was their best chance to do both, and they tried, and apparently won't get them done.  so it doesn't matter that they're committed, they've already lost.

i don't think they'll totally abandon either goal (especially not tax reform), but I do think they'll see them as unachievable for now, and shift the focus to other things that are achievable, and might placate their donors and voters.  moderate immigration reform would throw a bone to business, and btw give gop candidates a way to claim to swing voters that they don't hate brown people.  criminal justice has the distinction of being favored by everyone but the alt right.

to be clear, my reason for thinking the spat with corker is a tipping point for the gop is not that it's an embarassment or violation of norms for the president to trash talk one of his own party's senators.  in those respects, it is less than nothing compared to other shit he's said.  I think it is critical because of the sheer strategic stupidity of trump picking a fight with a key senator just as they're trying to salvage the year with tax reform.  they see that and it tells them he's even going to fuck up their last chance for a legislative win, and they are saying to hell with this guy.  I think that is reflected in the criticism of trump suddenly coming from all over the right this week.

and again, I don't predict them doing anything heroic like removing trump from office.  I just think they'll ignore him and govern around him to the extent possible.  they'll stop cooperating with him.

They've made, what, four? five? attempts to repeal Obamacare so far, including changing rules in the middle of the night, sneaking off to have meetings in the middle of the night, and so on? These are not activities that make sense in the context of a party that is concerned about a return to normalcy and which wants to just get to the business of governing.

Trump picking fights with lone senators like Corker or McCain who won't be around for the next election cycle isn't going to poison the Republicans against Trump. It's a call to Republicans with longer-term political ambitions to get in line. None of the Republicans are looking at Corker, who is getting panned by his own base and is getting lukewarm praise from liberals who are going to vote against him anyways, and thinking "wow, that's what I want to do." They're trying to keep quiet, stay on the party's good side, and ensure that they'll get the campaign funds they need come January.

You are really overestimating how much these people want to govern.

Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8107
None of the Republicans saw resisting Trump as a possible political advantage. Which means, assuming they're not totally off base, that the American voters don't actually want to be represented by mavericky truth-tellers who stand up for the little guy. They want slavish toadies to authoritarian thuggishness.

  • meepmeep
  • Administrator
  • zombiecat queen
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8108
These are not activities that make sense in the context of a party that is concerned about a return to normalcy and which wants to just get to the business of governing.

Yeah, the reality is that there isn't going to fucking be some magical return to normalcy. You can't violate norms every single day and expect things to suddenly go back to the way they were. And it's not just Trump. McConnell's been shitting on Senate norms since before Trump was in power, and there is basically no incentive to stop.

"But it's not going to work for them! The voters won't stand for it!". idk looks like it's worked pretty motherfucking well so far, huh

You are really overestimating how much these people want to govern.

They don't know how to govern anymore. Governing is basically impossible. And the "my team rules and urs sux" mentality of voters means that literally nothing matters except getting your base all agitated over culture war bullshit whenever you need a boost.

People were marveling at the sudden and dramatic shift in opinions on the NFL based on party. What's there to marvel at? It's just people taking cues from their team leaders. It barely matters what the actual fucking substance of the issue in question is. People get the signal that X is now bad, and that's all it takes for them to get in line.

This Trump bullshit is not just some random nightmare of an aberration that we're going to suddenly wake up from as a country as soon as he's out of office. Our politics is fundamentally dysfunctional, and these shitbags are doing very real, lasting damage to our institutions.

Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8109
there is a way to fix it, though.

Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8110

Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8111
i'm sure the lyrics of madam guillotine are intended to be darkly ironic but they just sound badass tbh

Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8112
Look at the brightside, if we lead everyone through ww3 then we will have restored America to its rightful place.

  • ksen
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8113
Gandalf did nothing wrong in The Scarlet Pimpernel.

Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8114
"our delilah will / shave you razor clean"

nice.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8115
I didn't say the gop wants to govern or return to normalcy, I said it's in their political interest and predicted they will.

it seems clear to me that:
1) they have failed at repealing the ACA, have decided it is unachievable for the foreseeable future, and are back-burnering the effort for the rest of this congress
2) they are close to similarly failing at tax reform
3) if they can't execute on either of the legislative goals they share with trump, that leaves legislative goals they don't share with trump
4) if they get no legislative results, they risk a significant backlash from donors, primary voters, and general election voters

therefore, I think, they now have a political interest in moving legislation trump doesn't like.  and given their narrow senate majority, that is pretty difficult without doing stuff that has bipartisan support.

yes, they have been cozy with trump and tried to work with him on healthcare and taxes.  that was because they had similar goals and thought they could get results.  but that ship has more or less sailed. .....  and, yes, they were worthless obstructionists during the obama years.  but they're looking at a different set of political incentives now that they are in power.  they have to get legislative wins, and they seem to get that.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8116
None of the Republicans saw resisting Trump as a possible political advantage. Which means, assuming they're not totally off base, that the American voters don't actually want to be represented by mavericky truth-tellers who stand up for the little guy. They want slavish toadies to authoritarian thuggishness.
and I don't expect you'll see a lot of republicans standing up to trump.  I just think the apparent impossibility of passing the bills trump supports will force them to move on to bills trump doesn't support.

  • Faid
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8117
Who even made the rule that we cannot group ducks and fish together for the simple reason that they are both aquatic? If I want to group them that way and it serves my purpose then I can jolly well do it however I want to and it is still a nested hierarchy and you can't tell me that it's not.

  • ToThePoint
  • search & destroy
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8118
"Who am I? Why am I here?" #25thAmendmentNow

^ links to
Quote
A running thread of Trump not knowing where he is, how he got there, or the appropriate response to give in the moment. Some mental health professionals are concerned that he may be exhibiting signs of Alzheimer's, but he might just be an idiot.
"This is your life and it's ending one minute at a time."

Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8119
None of the Republicans saw resisting Trump as a possible political advantage. Which means, assuming they're not totally off base, that the American voters don't actually want to be represented by mavericky truth-tellers who stand up for the little guy. They want slavish toadies to authoritarian thuggishness.
and I don't expect you'll see a lot of republicans standing up to trump.  I just think the apparent impossibility of passing the bills trump supports will force them to move on to bills trump doesn't support.

The issue is not Trump's support. The issue is that their donors want these bills through and won't give more money until they get that.

  • Doobie Keebler
  • Ridiculous Callipygous
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8120






Jesus.
President.
Of.
The.
U.
S.
Of.
A.


Yeah, and speaking of that abomination. Here's the dumbfuck-in-chief talking about meeting himself during his speech at the big humongous anti-gay bigot summit meeting. Unreal.  ::)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2koHNN3QVE

From nonexistent African nations to this, the man constantly displays his massive ignorance and/or creeping dementia. I don't know if he meant to say he met the governor of the U.S.V.I. (I don't know if he went to the islands or met him in PR on his paper towel tossing self congratulating circle jerk tour that regretfully interrupted his golf tee times) or was really fucking it up having meant the governor of PR and got it twice as wrong.

Pandering so hard you could almost hear the sound of Evangelical nuts being tongue bathed and swallowed, during his speech he also whistled "our nation's religious heritage would be cherished, protected and defended like you have never seen before" (it's always "like never before" or "the world has ever seen" amirite?) and "returning moral clarity to our view of the world" (LOL) and "we are stopping cold the attacks on Judeo-Christian values.'"

The gagging on the zealot's phallus continued with a repetition of his campaign trail nuggets consisting of "in America we don't worship government we worship god" and the rimjob of "we're saying Merry Christmas again".

Because, you know, these days christians have to hide behind rocks and bushes and shit like a newly naked Adam and Eve lest they be persecuted for using that phrase. Good Grief.

edit- to U.S.V.I as there exists also a "Governor of the Virgin Islands" who oversees the British V.I. in service of the UK.
  • Last Edit: October 13, 2017, 04:01:05 PM by Doobie Keebler
"If you read my last number of tweets, only one opinion can be formed - that our President, and therefore "leader," is grossly incompetent!"  The Dotard

  • MikeS
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8121
Trump also fed the red-meat hungry crowd with "Our creator is mentioned FOUR TIMES in the Declaration of Independence."  A very nicely wrote trope since the actual structure of the USA are based upon a document (The Constitution) drafted 14 years later.

  • Doobie Keebler
  • Ridiculous Callipygous
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8122
"If you read my last number of tweets, only one opinion can be formed - that our President, and therefore "leader," is grossly incompetent!"  The Dotard

  • linus
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8123
We're all in safe hands.
Quote
Two White House officials told The Daily Beast that Trump winces at having to twice certify that Iran is in compliance with the nuclear agreement, believing it shows weakness that he had to reluctantly do something he clearly did not see as "tough" on Iran. Trump has consulted both Fox News' Sean Hannity and former UN Ambassador--and staunch neoconservative--John Bolton on the matter. And each has dinged him for certifying the deal while privately urging him not to do so, one official noted.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/mcmaster-wants-to-save-the-iran-deal-by-hiding-it-from-trump

  • MikeS
Re: Trumpocalypse
Reply #8124
Trump has consulted Sean Hannity!!.  Let that one sink in.

Trump has consulted Sean Hannity!!.

Trump has consulted Sean Hannity!!.

Trump has consulted Sean Hannity!!.

Trump has consulted Sean Hannity!!.