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Messages - el jefe

1

Quote
Pirro's language ("cleansing," "examples have to be made," suggesting law enforcement officials would "destroy the republic" and must be arrested) is chillingly authoritarian. This is not a drill.
when I'm president, we're having an italian ban.  they're a bunch of fascist psychos.  and some I assume are good people.
2
Politics and Current Events / Re: Macron
guapo says trump and his followers will try to get them fired or something
3
yeah.  might turn on whether the stores all say "happy holidays" or something gay like that
4
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
"shift NASA's resources" sounds like they want to cut science to pay for it.  manned spaceflight is great.  as long as it isn't taking money away from science.

guessing the first thing to go will be the lying climatologists.
5
It's actually evidence that news that is ACTUALLY wrong gets corrected.

Actual faked news doesn't.
While that's true, it's also evidence that there is a rush to publish, before looking for things that need correction. These are three big stories whose corrections were basic and easy to check - and the publishing journalists apparently failed to do so. It is a relief that our entire journalistic system did manage to correct it, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the error occurred when it should not have.

However, when rephrased in those terms - that our journalistic system is a self-correcting system - there is a major problem: that that hypothesis is unfalsifiable. How do you check whether the journalistic system self-corrects? By whether journalists corrected an error. What happens when an error isn't corrected? The error becomes historical/journalistic "fact".

Yes, it's better that our journalistic system has some self-correction mechanisms. But that doesn't show what you said (or implied) - that (all or most) wrong news gets corrected.
and the danger you're pointing out is possible.

however, I think it's unlikely for two reasons.  the first is that the news media is not people's only source of information.  certainly not nowadays, when everyone has a phone that can take video and then upload to twitter or fb within seconds.  so suppose a major outlet like cnn gets something wrong.  correct information can and does easily get out and reach their audience by other routes.  nobody nowadays gets all their information from a single source ....   the second reason is that I think there must be some kind of market inefficiency associated with bad reporting.  when cnn fucks something up (and over the years cnn in particular has made a lot of false reports that have led to embarassing retractions - they are more sloppy infotainment than journalism), if another outlet has a reporter looking at the same topic who sees that cnn has it wrong, they have a strong incentive to report that.  they are acting against their own interests if they don't.
6
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv
Quote
Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

So if Democrats take the House, and impeach both Trump and Pence, and the evidence is so egregious that the Senate has no choice but to convict them both, do you get President Pelosi?
lol

I think maybe you have to live here to really appreciate how much conservative media deceives and distracts half the country, and how dumb it has made them.  facts, logic, and common decency are all close to useless in our discourse nowadays.
on re-reading.... it was unfair of me to lol you like that.  you know your stuff about American politics.  and of all the posters here, I am probably the one who spends the most time looking for excuses to believe meritocracy will prevail.  or at least turn out not to be entirely dead.

No, it was fair.
I think you just have a grudge against Europeans because they're so religious
7
are you saying it's all run by a cabal of shadowy "globalists"?

I don't like where this theme is headed
8
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv
Quote
Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

So if Democrats take the House, and impeach both Trump and Pence, and the evidence is so egregious that the Senate has no choice but to convict them both, do you get President Pelosi?
lol

I think maybe you have to live here to really appreciate how much conservative media deceives and distracts half the country, and how dumb it has made them.  facts, logic, and common decency are all close to useless in our discourse nowadays.
on re-reading.... it was unfair of me to lol you like that.  you know your stuff about American politics.  and of all the posters here, I am probably the one who spends the most time looking for excuses to believe meritocracy will prevail.  or at least turn out not to be entirely dead.
9
Politics and Current Events / Re: Goddamnit Al
i don't think northam was a surprise.  iirc, polls showed him winning by a small but consistent margin.  also, i believe democrats have won every statewide election in VA since 2005, with the exception of mcdonnell winning governor in 2009.  va is a blue state now.

though it was a surprise at least in that he won by a bigger margin than he was supposed to
10
Politics and Current Events / Re: Goddamnit Al
The issue isn't one of cynicism vs idealism. The issue is that Democrats are willing to (rightfully) listen to women who make serious accusations of sexual harassment and rightfully understand that many of those actions do not leave clear evidence of wrongdoing. The Republicans are willing to believe that Democrats belonging to minority ethnic/racial groups are sexual predators because they are steeped in racism, but they're also not really willing to believe women qua women. There is a dangerous interplay here between gender and race and Democrats are going to lose because Democrats actually care about doing right. The only way to avoid that eventuality is for Democrats to patiently push for a binding nonpartisan investigatory committee. Impatience on the part of the Democrats makes this impossible, and the Republicans are going to continue to exploit that weakness.

Not believing these kind of accusations is one dimension of it, but another is that Republicans just don't give a fuck. Most of the Republican leadership knows quite well that Roy Moore is guilty of all the things he's being accused of, and probably a lot of his supporters do too, but it doesn't matter. It's a structural disadvantage born of the fact that only one side cares about ethics.

They may have decided to force him to resign if elected and then have Strange reappointed.

Nah, they're fully backing Moore now and even justifying his child molestation because it was so many years ago, you see.

yeah, they're almost acting like it didn't happen now

they assumed it was fake for a week or so.  then when the accusers got too numerous to ignore, they kinda expressed disapproval for a couple weeks.  and now they've decided it's water under the bridge or something like that.
11
Politics and Current Events / Re: Goddamnit Al
The issue isn't one of cynicism vs idealism. The issue is that Democrats are willing to (rightfully) listen to women who make serious accusations of sexual harassment and rightfully understand that many of those actions do not leave clear evidence of wrongdoing. The Republicans are willing to believe that Democrats belonging to minority ethnic/racial groups are sexual predators because they are steeped in racism, but they're also not really willing to believe women qua women. There is a dangerous interplay here between gender and race and Democrats are going to lose because Democrats actually care about doing right. The only way to avoid that eventuality is for Democrats to patiently push for a binding nonpartisan investigatory committee. Impatience on the part of the Democrats makes this impossible, and the Republicans are going to continue to exploit that weakness.

Not believing these kind of accusations is one dimension of it, but another is that Republicans just don't give a fuck. Most of the Republican leadership knows quite well that Roy Moore is guilty of all the things he's being accused of, and probably a lot of his supporters do too, but it doesn't matter. It's a structural disadvantage born of the fact that only one side cares about ethics.
also, the conservative bubble is extremely good at denial or distracting itself with whataboutism.  I suspect that in many cases it's not even that people think party/coalition/cause trumps ethics, it's that when they hear information that is bad for team red, they so quickly and reflexively either assume it's fake or turn their thoughts to something bad about democrats, that they don't even process it.  they don't even get to the part of the flowchart where they decide whether to apply their ethics to any republicans.
12
Politics and Current Events / Re: Goddamnit Al
lol, oh yeah
13
Politics and Current Events / Re: Goddamnit Al
not that it's the most important thing here, but I never even got past the fact that he's a comedian.  i think the lack of seriousness implied by electing him to the senate (and shit like half the cast of Predator getting elected as governors) partly helped open the door to trump.  a random, unqualified celebrity for public office?  sure, why not?  nothing matters!
14
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
not bad
15
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
I think in a sense the "undivided" thing is more important than jerusalem being Israel's capital.  iirc, west Jerusalem is internationally recognized as belonging to israel.  if it's part of Israel, then they can decide to put their capital there.  that's not any kind of imposition on palestinians, at least not directly.  it's just Israel deciding where, within their country, to set up their government.  they can put it wherever they want, within their proper borders.

the "undivided" part is the problem, because it effectively annexes east jerusalem, which basically no one recognizes as part of israel.
16
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
he doesn't want to wipe out the Palestinians.  but you may well be right that he's aware of and indifferent to the harm caused by this.  or at least that he finds it regrettable, but thinks not recognizing jerusalem as the capital was the greater evil.
17
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
so like he was blind to the consequences because getting Jerusalem recognized as Israel's capital was too awesome a thought?  maybe 
18
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
idk.  I doubt schumer wanted the reaction this is getting.  I keep going back to the thought that he advised something more nuanced, and his mistake was underestimating trump's stupidity.  ... though that seems incredible too.  how could he trust this guy not to fuck it up??  idk what to think
19
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
so he was dumb enough to think trump would handle a significant diplomatic decision with subtlety and discretion? ok.
another theory bouncing around in my head:  with netanyahu and kushner both possibly headed to prison in short order, he is worried pro-Israel influence over trump may be on the verge of dropping off, and wanted to get something for Israel out of him real quick while the getting is good.
20
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
guessing trump will end up trying to walk it back in some way.  maybe something like "we recognize west Jerusalem as your capital".  yeah, it would be a security nightmare to have their capital in one part of the city, while another part is under Palestinian control, but we may now be in a situation where every alternative is worse, thanks to the collective unreasonability of all actors involved.
21
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
I'm guessing chuck strongly believes that Jerusalem should be Israel's capital, as a matter of personal convictions

I'm also guessing that even he, when he advised trump about this, suggested something more nuanced, like having the Jerusalem thing as a goal of negotiations, rather than a big gift we give to one side right at the beginning of talks in which it is essential we appear neutral.
22
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/363703-trump-didnt-seem-to-have-complete-understanding-of-jerusalem-decision

another clear example of him causing real harm in the real world by being rash and uninformed
25
eh, you're arbitrarily connecting dots there