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  • el jefe
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obamacare repeal effort thread
recap:
- obama accomplishes the old progressive goal of (near) universal health insurance coverage, but does it by enacting a bill that borrows so heavily from old republican proposals that the left barely recognizes it.  still, it buys insurance for a lot of working class people, and makes insurance accessible for the first time for a lot of high-risk patients.
- for 7 years, the gop ran around in circles, screaming that obamacare was (somehow) the end of the world and had to be repealed or omg we're all going to die omg omg.
- trump surprises everyone by first winning the gop nomination then the fucking general election.  during the campaign he said he wanted to repeal the ACA, but also repeatedly made confusing comments suggesting he'd replace it with... single payer?  that of course is far to the left of the aca, and is what the left wanted all along before settling for the aca.
- ryan, mcconnel, and republicans of both establishment and tea party persuasion all said "yay trump", and then promptly ignored his health care comments, pledging to repeal the aca and replace it with a lecture about self-reliance and the magic of the free market.
- the same congressional republicans rolled out their aca replacement proposal, which, sure enough, replaces the aca mostly with a lecture about self-reliance and the magic of the free market, but with a sort of tapering off of public assistance for poor people, rather than an immediate cut.
- it is instantly rejected by more than enough republican senators to kill it, both on the right and the left.  and their positions on the subsidy cuts appear irreconcilable.
- the white house and congressional leadership get to work trying to sell the bill and ram it through congress as quickly as possible.
- iirc, gunnerj hates bullet points

------------
that brings us up to speed

here's the new development I find interesting.  it appears all their efforts to pick up votes are aimed at moderates and even democrats.  they are possibly even writing off the tea party.  here is what has happened after the initial resistance to the bill:

- they've softened the subsidy cuts further, and actually made the tax credit semi-refundable (which means it actually helps people who weren't making enough to owe taxes in the first place)
- trump met with a couple democrats who want to negotiate drugs prices more rationally and straight up endorsed their proposal
- was it true that gunnerj hates bullet points, or did I confuse him with someone else?
- after initially telling the tea partiers he was ok with speeding up the medicaid roll back, trump has now backed away from it

nothing here should be construed as suggesting anything about this repeal bill isn't terrible, it's all just to analyze their strategy.  I find it interesting that they are possibly tacking centerward, a little bit.  I don't know if it helps them, though.  they will lose the tea party for sure, and I don't think they'll pick up any democrats, and probably not enough moderate republicans to offset the likely losses on the right.

what they might try to do is this: push a tea party bill through the house, and a more moderate one through the senate.  (though both are tall orders).  then the conference committee will work out a compromise that one or both of the tea party and the moderates not only dislike but find unacceptable, and then send it back for quick votes in both houses and hope everyone just sort of goes along with it.

why might that work?   supposedly, it is the case that people are often willing to vote for conference bills after voting against the initial bill.  the logic I've heard is that voters are dumb, so voting against the original bill allows them to tell the voters back home that they "voted against it", but voting for it in the final vote delivers for leadership and the president where it counts.  however, I am guessing the extent to which congresspeople attempt that two-facedness depends on factors like how closely the legislation is being watched, how much they care about the given issue, and why they care about it (to please voters?  to do a favor for interests?  honestly giving a shit?).   ....   however, those factors don't bode well for the bill in this case.  EVERYONE is watching this.  and say what you want about the tea party, but they are wide-eyed zealots who want to kill the aca completely as well as every dime of public assistance more generally, and will vote like they mean it.
  • Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 01:30:49 PM by el jefe

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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1
Here's something else to watch, and to call your representatives about.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/house-republicans-would-let-employers-demand-workers-rsquo-genetic-test-results/

Quote
A little-noticed bill moving through Congress would allow companies to require employees to undergo genetic testing or risk paying a penalty of thousands of dollars, and would let employers see that genetic and other health information.
Giving employers such power is now prohibited by legislation including the 2008 genetic privacy and nondiscrimination law known as GINA. The new bill gets around that landmark law by stating explicitly that GINA and other protections do not apply when genetic tests are part of a "workplace wellness" program.
The bill was approved by a House committee on Wednesday, with all 22 Republicans supporting it and all 17 Democrats opposed. It has been overshadowed by the debate over the House GOP proposal to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, but the genetic testing bill is expected to be folded into a second ACA-related measure containing a grab-bag of provisions that do not affect federal spending, as the main bill does.
"What this bill would do is completely take away the protections of existing laws," said Jennifer Mathis, director of policy and legal advocacy at the Bazelon Center for Mental Health Law, a civil rights group. In particular, privacy and other protections for genetic and health information in GINA and the 1990 Americans with Disabilities Act "would be pretty much eviscerated," she said.

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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #2
I have no idea what constituency the Trumpcare bill is supposed to appeal to.

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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #3
  • real
  • bullet
  • points

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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #4
I have no idea what constituency the Trumpcare bill is supposed to appeal to.

It's supposed to appeal to people who think "Obamacare Bad!!!", but like some of the features.

eta: but not taxing the wealthy to pay for those features.
  • Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 02:14:35 PM by SkepticTank

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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #5
Truth is out of style

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Reply #6
I have no idea what constituency the Trumpcare bill is supposed to appeal to.
It's supposed to appeal to people who think
No.
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Reply #7
Does Virginia have its own GINA  bill? Because it should.
Love is like a magic penny
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if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #8
sorry, should be "believe".

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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #9
I have no idea what constituency the Trumpcare bill is supposed to appeal to.
The 1%. It's a tax cut bill.
"I would never consider my evaluation of his work to be fair minded unless I had actually read his own words." - Dave Hawkins

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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #10
"I would never consider my evaluation of his work to be fair minded unless I had actually read his own words." - Dave Hawkins

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Reply #11
Fun?
Truth is out of style

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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #12
Yes.
"I would never consider my evaluation of his work to be fair minded unless I had actually read his own words." - Dave Hawkins

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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #13
But not cheap.

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Reply #14
Don't worry. America is going to be so great again that you'll easily be able to afford it.
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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #15
Don't worry. America is going to be so great again that you'll easily be able to afford it.

If I gotta quit buying iPhones to buy health insurance how the fuck can I afford to shoot .50 cal just so I can nut?

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Reply #16
It's America. Even if they can't afford anything else, they can always afford more guns.
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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #17
this guy gets us

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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #18
Ezra Klein (and apparently also David brooks) plugs the theory that the aca repeal & replace effort is designed to fail (!)

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/10/14872916/republican-health-plan-designed-to-fail-ahca

fascinating, if true.

I'm well under 50% convinced, though.  I am not even comfortable assuming this will fail.  and if it does fail, I don't think you need the conspiratorial assumption that it was designed to, to explain it.

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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #19
I really really don't like the Mafia game mentality that has taken over political discourse.
Love is like a magic penny
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they'll be rolling all over the floor

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Reply #20
Also, I am reading a book on game theory which is making me angry at statisticians but I can't stop reading it because it's interesting even though it is hopelessly naive.
Love is like a magic penny
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if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #21
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/spicer-dismisses-aarp-concerns-obamacare-replacement

Quote
White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer on Wednesday brushed off the AARP's forceful opposition to the House GOP's Obamacare replacement plan, dismissing the group that represents millions of seniors as a "special interest."

When asked about the group's opposition to the GOP health care plan, Spicer noted its support for an Obamacare provision regarding prescription drugs.

"I think the AARP got a really good deal last time when it came to prescription drugs, in particular," Spicer said in the daily briefing. "I think this is a patient-centric bill. It's about patients, it's about people, it's about the Americans who are left behind. Look at what those deals got people last time. For all those people who are on Medicaid in particular, they don't have choices anymore."

Spicer accused Democrats of using "one deal after another" to "buy votes" to pass Obamacare.

"So if you want to line up how many special interests got paid off last time versus now, they'll probably win hands down," he said. "This isn't about trying to figure out how many special interests in Washington we can get paid off. It's about making sure that patients get the best deal that lowers prices."

Asked specifically about the AARP's concerns that the bill could significantly raise premiums for older Americans, Spicer argued that Republicans "want you to get more choice and a lower cost."

A lot of this is crazy talk, but I think he has a point about the AARP being a special interest group.

A huge special interest group that represents a huge chunk of the US population.

That votes.

And a bunch of them voted for Trump.

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Reply #22
Ezra Klein (and apparently also David brooks) plugs the theory that the aca repeal & replace effort is designed to fail (!)

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/10/14872916/republican-health-plan-designed-to-fail-ahca

fascinating, if true.

I'm well under 50% convinced, though.  I am not even comfortable assuming this will fail.  and if it does fail, I don't think you need the conspiratorial assumption that it was designed to, to explain it.
Nah. As far as I can tell the bill is basically the result of the Repubs being the dogs that caught the car.
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Quote
Asked specifically about the AARP's concerns that the bill could significantly raise premiums for older Americans, Spicer argued that Republicans "want you to get more choice and a lower cost."
Well, that's a rock solid argument. :popcorn:
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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #24
Ezra Klein (and apparently also David brooks) plugs the theory that the aca repeal & replace effort is designed to fail (!)

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/10/14872916/republican-health-plan-designed-to-fail-ahca

fascinating, if true.

I'm well under 50% convinced, though.  I am not even comfortable assuming this will fail.  and if it does fail, I don't think you need the conspiratorial assumption that it was designed to, to explain it.
Nah. As far as I can tell the bill is basically the result of the Repubs being the dogs that caught the car.

Trump has said that if this fails then he'll just let Obamacare fail (death spiral) and blame Dems.  I'd like to think that will backfire since Reps have both houses and the Exec, but I'm not really sure.