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Topic: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news) (Read 3223 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #50
Switching gears for a minute.

You may have heard how the US is experiencing climate change/global warming, and how winters are warming fastest. 

http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/which-season-is-warming-fastest

Quote
While the U.S. as a whole has seen a warming trend that has raised annual average temperatures by 1.3°F over the past 100 years, warming varies seasonally, and it's winter that has seen the fastest warming.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/21/us-temperature-trends_n_2735036.html

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-are-warming-all-across-the-us-15590

The problem once again, is that it is bullshit.







http://cci-reanalyzer.org/clim/prism/



Even more amazing is how the entire US fits into the Ohio Valley.

Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #51
Switching gears for a minute.

You may have heard how the USOhio Valley is experiencing climate change/globalOhio Valley warming, and how winters are warming fastest. 

http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/which-season-is-warming-fastest

Quote
While the USOhio Valley as a whole has seen a warming trend that has raised annual average temperatures by 1.3°F over the past 100 years, warming varies seasonally, and it's winter that has seen the fastest warming.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/21/USOhio Valley-temperature-trends_n_2735036.html

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-are-warming-all-across-the-USOhio Valley-15590

The problem once again, is that it is bullshit.







http://cci-reanalyzer.org/clim/prism/


Hmm...
  • Last Edit: January 25, 2017, 10:06:42 PM by [Serious]

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #52
Read the links, it will help.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-are-warming-all-across-the-us-15590

They are selling you on the "truth" that winters are warming the fastest, and they show the Ohio valley region as some of the fastest warming winters.
The problem is simple enough.  It's complete bullshit.They take the coldest period to start their trend, and then claim it means the Ohio valley region is warming fast in winter, which simply isn't true.

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #53
The bullshit takes the form of a narrative that is trying to sell you it's warming for the US, when it isn't the whole story at all

America's year without a winter: The 2015-2016 season was the warmest on record

Lower 48 States Just Experienced the Warmest Winter on Record



Jan 2016 set records for snowfall in the northeast, something they somehow think goes along with record warm temperatures.  Which is bullshit.


You would think from the story (year with out a winter) that the winter was nothing.  Instead of having one if the biggest blizzards ever recorded.



Snowzilla
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/23/blizzard-warning-updates-heavy-snow-and-wind-for-storms-closing-phase/?utm_term=.4ceb8cbcae4f

http://www.ianlivingston.com/d-c-s-double-digit-snowstorms-a-guide-to-their-development-and-the-patterns-that-produced-them/

How is that even possible?  Is the media really that stupid?


  • Last Edit: January 30, 2017, 05:19:47 AM by F X
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #54
The bullshit takes the form of a narrative that is trying to sell you it's warming for the US, when it isn't the whole story at all

America's year without a winter: The 2015-2016 season was the warmest on record

Lower 48 States Just Experienced the Warmest Winter on Record




Because the average temperature of the US is best measured by the minimum temperature in the Ohio Valley?

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #55
One thing I know from experience, is the facts just won't matter to a believer.  They actually can't see what is on the page.  Instead, they respond to something else, rather than even think for a moment.

To a true believer, record cold and snow actually doesn't mean anything, or worse, they try to claim it actually means it was warmer.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #56
Quote
#4: Blizzard of 2016
17.8″ of snow in D.C. | January 22-23, 2016

The first massive January snowstorm in D.C. since the Blizzard of 1996, this one shared similarities to that event even though they occurred in different ENSO phases (La Nina for 1996, El Nino for 2016). In the D.C. area widespread totals over two feet were recorded, with western and northwestern suburbs approaching 3 feet in spots. Baltimore set its snowstorm record, as did New York City (LaGuardia/JFK), and other places.
http://www.ianlivingston.com/d-c-s-double-digit-snowstorms-a-guide-to-their-development-and-the-patterns-that-produced-them/

Looking at the data, the problem is obvious.  But not to a warmer, they actually can't see the data.  Data is meaningless to them, especially when it seems to show it wasn't actually warmer.

The warmer imagines 2016 was a record warm year for winter, because they are idiots.

If you show them there was a lot of snow, it won't matter.



If you then show them it was cold, because that is how physics works, that won't matter.



Every time there is more snow (than the mean), it is also colder than the mean.  (not counting Greenland or other high latitude/altitude regions of course)

The warmer imagines it is warmer when there is record snow.  Because of the lies they were told, and they didn't bother to check the data.



  • Last Edit: January 30, 2017, 05:30:06 AM by F X
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #57
A big problem with the anomalies is the warmer sees red colors, in the northern regions, and actually thinks it means it was warm.  Rather than the actuality, which is an anomaly for the far north in January means instead of being -30F it was -25F.  It doesn't mean it was warm, it just wasn't as cold as the mean.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #58
Yes F X, that's what "warming" means. Nobody who looks at the data thinks Canadian winters are now warm. Just that they're not as cold as before. Which is what "warmer" means.

Any other words you've discovered the definition of recently and you'd like to share with us?
Why do I bother?

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #59
Using the CONUS is a clever way to try and avoid reality, since it averages out the entire CONUS, avoiding talking about the reality, which is often that the US experiences a warm west and cool east, or the reverse at times.  Averaging means you don't actually know much about what happened at all.

So the warmer thinks January 2016 was warm, when of course it was not.  Ir wasn't even the warmest if we use the entire US data either.



Doesn't matter to the warmer, they actually don't care about reality.



"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #60
Of course it's the trend that matters for climate, because one winter, or even a couple, doesn't mean much.  If the trend is still warming, we can handwave away a record blizzard, or record cold.

But if the trend is colder, that is much harder to ignore.

So if there is a record breaking snow in Jan 2016, and the trend show it is getting colder for that region, that is meaningful.

Despite it being "a year with out a winter" for the US, the trend shows colder, for the regions with increasing snow and cold.

Even the 30 year trend now shows it.





  • Last Edit: January 30, 2017, 05:45:25 AM by F X
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • nesb
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #61
Local weather is irrelevant, but I can see how there's two ways of seeing things. You can consider that it rained all January, or that it snowed yesterday, and my car battery was dead. Will this hellish snowpocalypse ever cease?

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #62
Local weather is irrelevant,
Now that is some serious fuckhead belief right there.

It actually illustrates the global warmer fuckhead mentality, where reality doesn't actually matter, but a made up graphic showing global warming does.

This is no joke.  There could be more snow and cold than anyone alive has ever observed, record deaths and suffering from winter storms, food crops wiped out, starvation and famine, economic losses beyond imagining from cold and snow, and the global warmer actually believes, it;'s not a made up thing, they actually believe in their hearts, it doesn't matter.

Or worse, they switch to claiming it's actually BECAUSE of global warming, and still blame people for it. (never themselves of course, but other people)

It's not just a fuckhead belief system, it's a massive fuckhead belief system.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #63
The global warmer true believer is also immune to facts, logic and reason.  No amount of data, scientific evidence, none of it makes the slightest impression.  You usually only see this with politics and religions.

Not in science matters,

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #64
Not in science matters,
::)

I've noticed over the years that a lot of nonscientists tend to revere some notion they have of Science as a sort of über-religion, of which they are the self-proclaimed clergy.
"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #65
You can see it at work all the time, if you are skeptical.  Rational, or even just reasonable.  The headlines declare "It's Official: This Was America's Warmest Winter on Record", and of course go on to talk about global warming.  They have no clue, they really don't.

It's blatant, it's so ridiculous it could be called a "Big lie", it's that bad.

And most people have no clue why.
Quote
46 states had above average winters, with Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, all having record warm winters.


Quote
Compared to last winter, this was balmy, but not by that much. Despite the record snowfall on the East Coast in 2014/215, that winter was the sixth warmest on record. Now, it's the seventh.
http://www.popsci.com/united-states-just-had-its-warmest-winter-ever

So there it is, the brutal record setting cold and snow in Boston and the northeast last year is meaningless.  But a record warm year is climate.  What did they say last year about it?

Quote
Winter on the East Coast of the United States has been brutal, and it isn't over yet. Freezing temperatures are predicted to break even more frigid records over the next two days. Boston has been buried in stupid amounts of snow, and Washington DC ground to a halt under the devastating impact of four inches of snow.

But really, it's not all bad. In Seattle, residents of that rainy city are enjoying sun and mild weather and other parts of the Western half of the country are enjoying similarly warm temperatures, creeping up into the 60's in the Pacific Northwest.
http://www.popsci.com/winter-isnt-cold-you-think

See?  They switch around and change the story, depending on the weather.  The northeast had the most snow, and the coldest weather ever in living memory, and it is nothing to them. Or worse, they calim it was BECAUSE it was record warm, even when it was record cold.



You don't get record snow like we observed with out it being very cold.

But the warmer can't accept this.  They always find a way to avoid reality.

They actually claim "Despite the record snowfall on the East Coast in 2014/215, that winter was the sixth warmest on record. Now, it's the seventh."

So the warmer actually believes the record snow and cold was one of the warmest winters ever.

There is no getting through to that sort of belief.

  • Last Edit: January 30, 2017, 07:01:49 AM by F X
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #66
I first ran into this mental blindness in 2010, when I pointed out that the record snow and cold for the DC area was actually a trend, it has been getting colder there, not warmer, and that the cold was the reason for the snow.

It was denied, flat out not believed, and no amount of evidence mattered.

Then, over a long period of time a few of the more intelligent people realized the facts actually did show this.

But what happened?  Rather than change their mind, accept the facts, they simply switched to a different line of discussion.

"Well, globally it is warmer. Regional changes don't matter."

Yes, that is what happens.  Rather than think about reality, the global warmer just changes to another thing, and ignores the entire years long discussion, never learning a single thing.

It's quite amazing to watch.



"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • nesb
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #67
Local weather is irrelevant,
Now that is some serious fuckhead belief right there.

It actually illustrates the global warmer fuckhead mentality, where reality doesn't actually matter, but a made up graphic showing global warming does.

This is no joke.  There could be more snow and cold than anyone alive has ever observed, record deaths and suffering from winter storms, food crops wiped out, starvation and famine, economic losses beyond imagining from cold and snow, and the global warmer actually believes, it;'s not a made up thing, they actually believe in their hearts, it doesn't matter.

Or worse, they switch to claiming it's actually BECAUSE of global warming, and still blame people for it. (never themselves of course, but other people)

It's not just a fuckhead belief system, it's a massive fuckhead belief system.

Yeah, but really, the weather outside my house is a datapoint if we're discussing global warming. And just one. You might really want "warmers" to generally take the position of whatever straw man you like attacking... but, I mean if wishes were fishes, I'd have to break out some lemon.

Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #68
Read the links, it will help.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-are-warming-all-across-the-us-15590

They are selling you on the "truth" that winters are warming the fastest, and they show the Ohio valley region as some of the fastest warming winters.
The problem is simple enough.  It's complete bullshit.They take the coldest period to start their trend, and then claim it means the Ohio valley region is warming fast in winter, which simply isn't true.


Try this then, Pick literally any 30 year baseline and compare it to that. Heck, pick a 100 year baseline.

You know what you find? Global warming.

If you want to cook the numbers, the usual way is to go back to a point reference like a single year or day. Common years to use for this kind of denial are 1998, 1979, and 1934 depending on exactly what numbers they are trying to cook. Of course, with the recent record setting years, it's getting harder to make that line work, so the new shift is finding some other statistical outlier.

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #69
Of course, with the recent record setting years, it's getting harder to make that line work, so the new shift is finding some other statistical outlier.
I don't care about whatever nonsense you are trying to make claims for, and since you don't provide any evidence, it's meaningless drivel.

Cohen et al 2012 points out the winter trend starts in 1988, but notes it depends, but that does show the MH winter cooling trend, which varies for North America and Eurasia, which is noted in the papers I have linked to, multiple times.

We investigate the relative magnitudes of the contributions of surface temperature trends from different latitude bands to the recent warming hiatus.

Multiple papers have stated now the same thing I noted back in 2010, and 2011, that the regions seeing extreme snow and cold, also show a trend of cooling, not warming, for the boreal winters.

And in fact it is the extreme cooling trend that makes it appear their is a pause in warming. The other seasons don't show the same thing, it's the cold winters bringing down the global mean, and it's mostly a NH event, though Antarctica shows a cooling trend, but the reason for that is thought to be ozone depletion.

Hansen's 2000 theory that the CO2 producing by burning fuels is balanced out by the cooling effect of the pollution from this, and that the warming we saw before the pause was from CfCs and ozone depletion, and with levels of both decreasing, the pause is from a reduction of both the greenhouse warming from the CfCs, and rising ozone levels.

Solar physics tells us the quiet sun is the reason.  Cohen thinks it's Siberia snow cover.  Others said it was Pacific cooling, others said wind changes, others said AMO changes, and of course there are those who say it didn't happen.

It's certainly not a settled issue, with some papers saying it's natural variation, others saying it's caused by reduced sea ice, others saying AMO and PDO changes, and there are even more ideas than this.

The one thing that is pure denial is to say it isn't happening at all.  Or worse, that it fits with the CO2 theory (basic global warming theory)

Both of those claims are wrong.  No doubt about that.


"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #70
Nobody who looks at the data thinks Canadian winters are now warm. Just that they're not as cold as before. Which is what "warmer" means.
It's interesting, because some areas of Canada show the same boreal winter cooling trend that is quite obvious.

I wasn't looking at Canada in 2010, when I checked the data for the US northeast.  After the record setting blizzards (3 in a row in Feb 2010) I was amazed to find a cooling trend for the region, a 30 year cooling trend.



Note the Canadian regions showing it as well.



Global warming is not supposed to making the coldest months show a cooling trend.  With an increase in snow.

  • Last Edit: January 30, 2017, 11:51:10 AM by F X
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #71
They actually claim "Despite the record snowfall on the East Coast in 2014/215, that winter was the sixth warmest on record. Now, it's the seventh."

So the warmer actually believes the record snow and cold was one of the warmest winters ever.

There is no getting through to that sort of belief.
FX, do you understand what an average is? Do you understand that, for example, the average of a number of data points can be high and yet still contain individual data points that are low? I ask because it really seems like you don't.

Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #72
F X, you do know that Nunavut is also in Canada? You know, the red bit at the top?
Why do I bother?

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #73
I don't care about whatever nonsense you are trying to make claims for, and since you don't provide any evidence, it's meaningless drivel.
...
Solar physics tells us the quiet sun is the reason.
:rofl:
"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

Re: Why I don't believe the bullshit (climate or even weather news)
Reply #74
Of course, with the recent record setting years, it's getting harder to make that line work, so the new shift is finding some other statistical outlier.
I don't care about whatever nonsense you are trying to make claims for, and since you don't provide any evidence, it's meaningless drivel.

Cohen et al 2012 points out the winter trend starts in 1988, but notes it depends, but that does show the MH winter cooling trend, which varies for North America and Eurasia, which is noted in the papers I have linked to, multiple times.

We investigate the relative magnitudes of the contributions of surface temperature trends from different latitude bands to the recent warming hiatus.

Multiple papers have stated now the same thing I noted back in 2010, and 2011, that the regions seeing extreme snow and cold, also show a trend of cooling, not warming, for the boreal winters.

And in fact it is the extreme cooling trend that makes it appear their is a pause in warming. The other seasons don't show the same thing, it's the cold winters bringing down the global mean, and it's mostly a NH event, though Antarctica shows a cooling trend, but the reason for that is thought to be ozone depletion.

Hansen's 2000 theory that the CO2 producing by burning fuels is balanced out by the cooling effect of the pollution from this, and that the warming we saw before the pause was from CfCs and ozone depletion, and with levels of both decreasing, the pause is from a reduction of both the greenhouse warming from the CfCs, and rising ozone levels.

Solar physics tells us the quiet sun is the reason.  Cohen thinks it's Siberia snow cover.  Others said it was Pacific cooling, others said wind changes, others said AMO changes, and of course there are those who say it didn't happen.

It's certainly not a settled issue, with some papers saying it's natural variation, others saying it's caused by reduced sea ice, others saying AMO and PDO changes, and there are even more ideas than this.

The one thing that is pure denial is to say it isn't happening at all.  Or worse, that it fits with the CO2 theory (basic global warming theory)

Both of those claims are wrong.  No doubt about that.




Ok, I've got some data, but before let's' agree on some terms. Now, let's say a decade ago scientists predicted a temporary slowdown in the rate of warming, followed by the increased warming we've seen the last few years, and someone posted about it on some forums including a tongue in cheek prediction that even though such a pause was predicted ahead of time, deniers would still use such a pause to try and claim that global warming had really stopped forever. That would be pretty interesting data, would it not? And hypothetically, to rebut it you would need to find an article predating that identifying a pause or predicted pause over that same time period with an alternate explanation, right?

And if that sounds like a trap, it totally is, but you really only have 2 choices, accept that climate science is making accurate predictions and that those predictions are good support for mainstream climate science (thereby undercutting your prefered interpretation), or come out against the idea of accurate prediction being something you'd expect from a reliable model (thereby undercutting your own credibility as someone who can meaningfully reflect on evidence generally).

Well, I suppose there's a third option where you'd just pretend this post doesn't exist, but I suspect everyone will throw it back in your face if you just try to dodge it like that.