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Messages - Fenrir

Aaaaand it now seems he's made an entire thread based on that flawed reasoning. Oh well.

Then apparently forgot it wasn't this one.

It's all good. That was a mistake, not an error.
Smearing what kids? Give me an example. I think you guys are just smoking dope again.

You know the kids who were shot up in Florida?


Emergency Reboot required

Stand away from the thread



As an aside, I find it sort of interesting - and telling - that whenever anyone mentions the importance of understanding the species within his ecosystem, Dave always assumes we are talking about "plants". 

Typically he will denigrate that as an "inventory" of plants.  Here he dismisses it as "plant analysis".

Better evidence of his inability to understand the intrinsically holistic nature of ecology could scarely be had.

"I can't spell cow. But I can lift one. Hurr Hurr."
Hogwash. We have plenty of information with which we could make informed decisions.

I really do want to create a simulation sometime. That would be freaking awesome.
It would get bogged down in discussions about what it is even supposed to simulate and that it's not doing that.
I cannot see this going anywhere but nowhere.
Nah. Wouldn't be that hard.  The goal would be to test the "Pingu Food Production System" vs. the "Dave Food Production Systrm" ... mainly how many annual food calories could be produced vs. Number of man hours to produce it.

You just aren't getting this "depends on what the island is" thing, are you?

And there is no "island" that is "like Missouri" because Missouri, when I last looked was in the middle of a fucking great continent.
Dave only chose islands to make sure "we" couldn't leave. So pretend he said we were walled into a small area of Missouri.

Doesn't change the "it depends" part, but the "no island like" should be relatively irrelevant.

My point was the larger one, that the very idea that we should have assumed that when he said "an island" he meant "something like Missouri" because of course he did, is symptomatic of his ignorance and dismissal of really important differences between climates and biome.

Of course when he said "an island" we didn't think "like Missouri". Anyone with half an ounce of ecological sense would immediately ask "how large?  what latititude? what longitude?"  The whole reason his thought experiment is so absurd is that the answers depends on what, in another context, he would call DETAILS.

So if he means an area of Missouri with a barbed wired fence and security guards around it, then he should say so.  And he should also say whether, for example, it includes a river.


The world is a WHOLE, which is why it is so utterly ludicrous to be discussing what he calls "holistic" solutions to a tiny unspecified part.

Yeah. I just find some parts of Dave's stupidity...easy to translate. His choice to use island rather than jail was because the standard fantasy of forced isolation is an island; he didn't think it through the details. As such, I personally don't find rehashing his inability to put together a cohesive world from extremely common tropes that interesting. More interesting to me is understanding why - even in a case as close to matching what he actually wants - he thinks this thought experiment will prove anything.
I think it will demonstrate the superiority of an animal foods based system. But if I'm wrong ... Ok. I'm wrong several times a day. It's part of science.

The thing with science is to find out where your basic assumptions are wrong and adjust them.

You don't do science.
... but last week a Facebook friend in New York state reported 11 tons per acre DM per year. 

Wow. Impressive.

So impressive I did a quick google search on dry weight yield of hay (type and treatment unspecified).

Not so impressed now.

I am dissappint.
Why are you now not so impressed and dissappint?

2016 avg for arizona was 8.6 ton/ha for example.

Several examples of yield in excess of 20 ton/ha (with them dread "inputs" shock horror) on first couple of pages of results for example.

Lost interest after that.
... but last week a Facebook friend in New York state reported 11 tons per acre DM per year. 

Wow. Impressive.

So impressive I did a quick google search on dry weight yield of hay (type and treatment unspecified).

Not so impressed now.

I am dissappint.
Yeehah. David  trying to get to first base.

Which would be great if we were playing baseball instead of hurling.

Here's the hard cold numbers again...

Row crops - 5.4 million sq miles - 3.456 billion acres
Permanent crops - 0.593 million sq miles - 0.379 billion acres
Permanent Pastures - 12.9 million sq miles - 8.256 billion acres
Woodland - 15.4 million sq miles - 9.856 billion acres
TOTAL - 34.3 million sq miles - 21.9 billion acres

If you take out the forested land that leaves about 12 billion Acres which feeds about 7 billion people. So that's about 1.7 billion acres per person on average. If each person consumes an average of 800,000 food calories per year, then that's about 470,000 food calories per acre on average Worldwide.

These are just actual numbers. No Dave Spin.

Dave, does the number for "Permanent Pastures" include the higher slopes of the Himalayas? I'm not convinced that the people who are herding yaks there will think that your method is useful.
And broad swaths of Arizona, Mexico etc. desert regions and alpine seasonal rangeland.

Sheesh. Just nip into town and get some water.

Bloody knockers.
Orangutan are herbivores.

Bunch. Move. Rest.

Problem solvered.

You're triggering my pedantry.

Orang utan

Orang - people

Hutan - forest
Dave, under your plan to save the world, what ecological systems will be dominant?
Isn't your plan to cover the world with 2 acre lots of pasture/woodlands, supporting a handful milk producing herbivores?

Well that's the crux of the matter. David isn't interested in biodiversity or "nature". David is interested in production systems and in optimising production.

Talk of biodiversity and ecosystems and "nature" is just marketing spin. Largely marketing to himself it seems.

The evidence suggesting David has no real grasp of the realities of agricultural systems just underpins his general ignorance.

And no, that doesn't mean I'm poo pooing his hobby farming or his adventures in producing some of his own food, or even his dicking about with straw in general.

The hubris, general incompetence and righteous arseholery is hilarious though.
Here is the Wikipedia discussion of this topic... I find this part particularly useful...

traditional diversity measuresspecies density, take into account the number of species in an areaspecies richness, take into account the number of species per individuals (usually [species]/[individuals x area])diversity indices, take into account the number of species (the richness) and their relative contribution (the evenness); e.g.:Simpson indexShannon-Wiener index

Which index did you use to measure Shannon diversity on your property and why did you choose that particular index?

How did you control for edge effects?

So that's a concrete prediction? Within, say, 3 years, they will be in prison?


Yeah ... 3 years is probably about right.

OK, so from my perspective, this prediction is completely batshit insane.

The NSA spying on Americans was illegal, but Bush (under whose administration it started) never underwent any indictment, and was never prosecuted.
Worth mentioning again. The fact that these people think Obama and Hillary (for some reason) are going to jail because the FBI might not have given as much information as it should have about its sources when applying for a FISA warrant is just so far removed from reality I can't even imagine how one gets there.
Well of course there's much more to it than that. Our hypothesis is that Obama himself along with Hillary conspired to throw a presidential election.


Our hypothesis?

Ah, the old - I'll play dumb and stupid, no-one will pick the difference - ploy.

Prolly hook a generator up to David's rotational system and power reality island from the spin.

Unfortunately that renders a trebuchet counterproductive. Hmm, I'm conflicted.
Introductions / Re: Squee ...
Not a very high bar to aim at.

Even Jackie Lambie is allowed to vote for Jackie Lambie.
I'd pick borealis and testy.  Maybe Faid for broken bones.

And the seeds I'd ask for would include flax and/or hemp (that'll bring testy on board).
How many man-hours per day will your program require for feeding everyone?

I don't know, Dave.
I know you don't know. But it's worth thinking about. If you are as proficient as Walter Haugen then each person will spend about 2 hours every day producing 2000 calories per day. If one person is really energetic and needs 3,000 calories per day then that person will spend three hours per day.

Meanwhile, over on my Island, each person will spend only about one hour every 3 days on a rotation system.  :wave:

A rotation of one.

What is the sound of one Dave fapping?

It's holistic donchaknow.
Allan Savory has done the observation part for us [citation needed] although we can do our own observations as well [citation needed]. He has observed herbivores and perennials in nature and has noted that they are bunched together in much tighter groups than  for example cattle in most conventional domestic situations [citation needed]. He has observed that this creates an enormous impact on the perennial grasses [citation needed]. His next observation has been that these tight groups tend to stay on the move [citation needed]. Why? [Good question. Why do you think that might be?]

How does any of this particularly inform farm management?
Re Gouda:

Where would David age it?

In his car?

In a custom hay-stack?

A tarp lean-to?
Dave, are you intending any of your surplus raw cow milk to be made for sale to others?

Not sure if you are aware of Missouri regulations on this...

Wasn't paying much attention but David appears to think he can circumvent the regs by making the rubes provide their own containers and filling them on demand direct from cow in paddock via cheap vacuum pump.

Meanwhile most people don't realize what a stupid system it is because it's the only system they know and they've been brainwashed. Often by people sporting PhDs. Thank ancel keys.


Ironically so.
Explain what you mean ... how do you think animals were managed back in the 14th century?  In what part of the world?

Avoidance with half twist and pike.

Muffed the landing.

Please direct me to the literature recording the farming and recommended husbandry of Wildebeest. It must be quite extensive by now.