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Topic: obamacare repeal effort thread (Read 13428 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • RAFH
  • Have a life, already.
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1500
insurers are suing too.  according to this, they will probably win in the end, but the legal battle will be messy and take time.  also, the experts don't anticipate courts would grant an injunction against trump's move in the mean time.
The insurance companies always win. It's in their business model. Doesn't matter what or who or when or whatever, they always win. They are like the casinos, they always win. Overall. They let some individuals win to give the illusion of the possibility of somehow winning, but for the most part, everyone loses. And with the insurance industry, it's small bites here and there.
Are we there yet?

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1501
reportedly, congressional republicans were taken by surprise on this (which is something I was wondering about).  seems like it is a unilateral, impulsive flail by trump.  apart from a few moderates voicing opposition and a few tea partiers (including paul ryan) voicing support, gop is mostly being noncommittal for the moment.  however, a large segment of them, including people beyond the moderate fringe, have previously said they oppose this approach.  e.g., senator cornyn (r - tx - asshole) said he doesn't want to "cause further hardship for the people of Texas just to prove a point".  sounds like he sees the political risk.

so it seems like there is some appetite among a large subset (possibly still a minority) of congressional republicans, for giving clarifying statutory authorization for CSR.  however, it would probably also be toxic in their intra party politics to have voted to "bail out obamacare".  moreover, I am guessing most republican voters of every kind are loving this executive order and beating off about it.  I also think trump will see a poll bump for it (consisting of disappointed conservatives coming back to him), and gop primary voters will care a lot about how this is handled.  so voting for restoring funds is hard for them to do.

still, even under the rosiest projections of how the blame game might go, i don't think gop congresspeople can be certain they wouldn't take more of the damage if they allow the insurance markets to blow up.  and they are already worried about a blue wave next fall.  so they don't want to vote against it either.

trump just threw a very tough vote in their lap, on top of the legislative logjam they are already looking at.  and I think he badly misread the politics of this, and doesn't get that he has once again handed leverage to the democrats.  the democrats have seen republicans  make dumb gambits before, and are good at the drill of calmly letting them suffer the wrath of the public until they come back begging for a way out.

  • ravenscape
  • Administrator
  • Triggered
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1502
I don't think you can go wrong expecting Trump to fuck people over with executive orders.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1503
trump is flip-flopping on whether he supports alexander-murray.  shortly after his executive order, he seemed to oppose it.  then the next day he told alexander he wanted it done and done soon.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/13/trump-opposes-bipartisan-obamacare-rescue-plan-243752
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/16/trump-bipartisan-senate-obamacare-deal-243846

guessing it was pointed out to him in between that he may have actually given the democrats more leverage.  ....  he may also have gotten private pushback from congressional republicans who were reportedly caught off guard by the executive order, and don't need another really tough vote on top of the legislative logjam they're already trying to battle through over the next few months.
  • Last Edit: October 17, 2017, 08:45:28 AM by el jefe

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1504
murray and Alexander reached a deal to extend the subsidies for two years in exchange for giving states some flexibility to weaken essential benefits.  trump apparently is on board.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/17/us/politics/alexander-murray-deal-obamacare-subsidies.html?referer=https://politicalwire.com/

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1505
assuming this passes and gets signed into law, this sets up an insurance cliff in two years, at which point the democrats will have more leverage.  either they will take at least one house of congress in 2018 (=> actual power), or they will remain out of power, and it will more certain that any negative developments will be blamed entirely on trump and/or the gop, heading into a presidential election year.

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1506
assuming this passes and gets signed into law, this sets up an insurance cliff in two years, at which point the democrats will have more leverage.  either they will take at least one house of congress in 2018 (=> actual power), or they will remain out of power, and it will more certain that any negative developments will be blamed entirely on trump and/or the gop, heading into a presidential election year.
You make it sound like this matters anymore. We know that all the GOP as to do is say it's all Obummer's fault. They don't have to back it up with anything resembling facts. Doesn't matter. So they've got ~30% of the vote in the bag.

Are there enough centrist motivated voters to make up that gap, with all of the built in advantages the GOP has with gerrymandering?

  • Faid
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1507
  • Last Edit: October 18, 2017, 06:43:20 AM by Faid
Who even made the rule that we cannot group ducks and fish together for the simple reason that they are both aquatic? If I want to group them that way and it serves my purpose then I can jolly well do it however I want to and it is still a nested hierarchy and you can't tell me that it's not.

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1508

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1509

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1511
if the gop does fold on this, guapo predicts it will be after the midterm primaries next year, but before the midterm general

  • ToThePoint
  • search & destroy
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1512
"This is your life and it's ending one minute at a time."

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1513
obamacare open enrollment numbers set new record for the opening week

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/359011-obamacare-signups-surge-in-early-days-to-set-new-record

...despite trump's cuts to advertising and outreach.  now, the sign up period is also shortened, so there need to be sign ups at a record rate just to match last year's overall enrollment.  but these early numbers suggest that is at least doable.  would love to see trump's meltdown if we pull it off.
  • Last Edit: November 06, 2017, 02:29:31 PM by el jefe

  • ravenscape
  • Administrator
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Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1514
Saw that for the California exchange aka Covered Callifornia, 75% of of the enrollees will pay less than they did last year.

Not sure how we pulled that off, but yay!

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1515
I have a stupid question ...

Senate Plans to End Obamacare Mandate in Revised Tax Proposal
Quote
[ ... ] Repealing the mandate, a longstanding Republican goal, would save hundreds of billions of dollars over the next decade. That would free up money that is earmarked to expand middle-class tax cuts. [ ... ]

How, exactly, does repealing the mandate save hundreds of billions of dollars?  :confused:

"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1516
they also have shit in place to defund medicare by billions. i feel like they are a little too exuberant here and this is the kinda shit where their reach far exceeds their grasp because going after medicare sounds like a plan for getting their asses kicked.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1517
VR -

i had the same reaction at first, but that part is actually not bullshit.  there are people who get subsidies and/or medicaid, but who wouldn't get health insurance without the mandate.  so scrapping the mandate would get the government off the hook for some chunk of money.

there's a related part of this where the bill's supporters are possibly half-right, but trying to get away with a swindle.  they question the part of the cbo's model where 7 million people leave medicaid (~ half the overall increase in uninsured they project) in response to the loss of the mandate, because medicaid has no premiums - it is free insurance.  therefore, whatever leads the cbo to think those people would stop getting it, it seems like a questionable assumption.  I actually buy that the republicans may be right about that.  it makes sense.  I'm guessing most of the 7 million might cheer the end of the tyrannical mandate, but then be like "wait....  I'm getting insurance for free.  why would I stop that?"

here's the swindle, though:  while denying those 7 million would stop getting medicaid, they are still trying to count that reduction in medicaid coverage toward their budget savings.  they are trying to have it both ways.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1518
they also have shit in place to defund medicare by billions. i feel like they are a little too exuberant here and this is the kinda shit where their reach far exceeds their grasp because going after medicare sounds like a plan for getting their asses kicked.
it strikes me as more dumb flailing motivated by their internal politics.  I don't assume anything anymore, but this seems as ill-conceived as several other strategies they've tried recently which have all failed.

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1519
VR -

i had the same reaction at first, but that part is actually not bullshit.  there are people who get subsidies and/or medicaid, but who wouldn't get health insurance without the mandate.  so scrapping the mandate would get the government off the hook for some chunk of money.

there's a related part of this where the bill's supporters are possibly half-right, but trying to get away with a swindle.  they question the part of the cbo's model where 7 million people leave medicaid (~ half the overall increase in uninsured they project) in response to the loss of the mandate, because medicaid has no premiums - it is free insurance.  therefore, whatever leads the cbo to think those people would stop getting it, it seems like a questionable assumption.  I actually buy that the republicans may be right about that.  it makes sense.  I'm guessing most of the 7 million might cheer the end of the tyrannical mandate, but then be like "wait....  I'm getting insurance for free.  why would I stop that?"

here's the swindle, though:  while denying those 7 million would stop getting medicaid, they are still trying to count that reduction in medicaid coverage toward their budget savings.  they are trying to have it both ways.
In other words, the savings come from having fewer people with insurance, some of whose insurance is paid for by the federal government. That was my first guess, but it's always been my sense that having fewer people with insurance was not so much a good thing as, well, a bad thing. In terms, obviously, of health. But even just in terms of government (though not necessarily federal) expense. Because who ends up paying, e.g.,  for the inevitable uptick in ER visits?
"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1520
yeah, it may turn out to be illusory savings when you take that into account

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1521
Not to mention, of course, that encouraging the youngest, healthiest among us to opt out means that those remaining the in the system will be older, sicker, and more expensive. 

But of course that's a feature, not a bug.
"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1522
was a little worried yesterday, because reportedly when the idea of putting mandate repeal in the tax bill was discussed at a policy luncheon (attended by the whole gop senate caucus?), no one voiced a hard objection to it, not even collins, murkowski, or mccain. 

however, murkowski and collins both had said in recent days that they thought it would complicate tax reform, which is a somewhat negative signal.  and (I believe) they were both undecided to negative on the senate tax bill in the first place.  so this moves things a bit in the wrong direction for them.

mccain, I hope will decide against this.  given the positions he has staked out on both obamacare repeal and tax reform, it seems like supporting this would be would be a stretch for him.  it's not a bipartisan solution, it's not being done through normal order, and policywise it is poorly thought out garbage.  he also didn't support bush's tax cuts for the rich.

corker would ostensibly be swayed by including the mandate repeal, since it (sort of, maybe) reduces the deficit, which was his main concern.  also, he is opposed to the aca.  however, if the savings are illusory, then he might not be satisfied.  he doesn't accept dynamic scoring, so why would he accept other budget gimmicks in lieu of fiscal discipline?

lastly, in the case of all four of them, as well as Jeff flake, I think we have seen some indications that, to varying degrees, they actually care a little about the merits and/or real ultimate effects of the policy changes.  thus, I tend to think they would dislike repealing the mandate without accompanying changes to stabilize the insurance markets , because it basically would set a bomb on the insurance markets and light the fuse.  tea partiers and trumpeteers might like that kind of terrorist legislating, but these 5 senators don't.

indeed, collins and murkowski both (I believe) mentioned alexander-murray, and said they wanted it brought to the floor, and there was a report that they will get that.  suspect they will not vote for the senate tax bill (now including insurance mandate repeal) unless alexander-murray becomes law.  possibly the same for mccain and flake.  (don't know where corker is on alexander-murray).  ....  but the yes badgers won't vote for alexander-murray regardless.  and, I don't think alexander-murray or similar provisions could be added to the tax bill without running afoul of reconciliation rules, so there's no escape available by merging them.

so I think in order to pass this tax bill, mcconnell will have to swindle someone.  get the votes for one package by promising certain senstors alexander-murray either will or won't actually become law.  and I don't think anyone will let themselves be swindled like that.  I don't think at least our 5 mavericks will settle for the fig leaf provided by "well I cast the right votes, but leadership tricked me!"  I think the three men care because they won't be senators for much longer and they care a little about legacy, and the two women care, because they will be senators for a long time and their states stand to get screwed badly if they're not careful what they vote for.

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1523
I think the most troublesome thing for me is that this bill, which is utterly shit and screws over a large chunk of the US, has such a given number of yes votes from the rank and file GOP. The fact that we have to hope that 3-4 of them actually have some balls and/or give a shit about their constituents is mind boggling to me.
Yet, these fuckwits keep getting (re)elected.

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #1524
It's amazing how far government has broken down. They have majorities in both houses and the White House, but they still can't manage any process beyond crafting a horrible bill in secret with zero study or outside input and then throwing everything the can grab at the wall at the last second to try to get something passed.