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The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing

Sluggish ice growth in the Arctic Nov 2, 2016

Quote
After a quick initial freeze-up during the second half of September, ice growth slowed substantially during early October. On October 20, 2016, Arctic sea ice extent began to set new daily record lows for this time of year. After mid-October, ice growth returned to near-average rates, but extent remained at record low levels through late October.  ... As of early November, extent remains especially low within the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, and Kara Seas.

In the past week, ice extent has actually decreased from already record low extent for this time of year.

What the Heck Is Going on at the North Pole? by Phil Plait
Quote
Starting in September every year the ice begins to reform, growing to a maximum. It reached that point on Sept. 10 this year, when it had the second lowest extent on record. After that day, though, it started to grow again.
Except ... it didn't. It started to, but then in early October the growth just stopped. A couple of weeks later it started to rise again, but stalled a second time in late October. In the weeks since then the amount of ice has actually fallen a bit. We are now at record low ice for this time of year, and have been for weeks.
Mind you, it's winter up there. The Sun shines at most a few hours a day at the southern edge of the Arctic Circle right now. Yet temperatures in the Arctic are soaring; in mid-November it was an average of a staggering 22° Celsius, or 40° Fahrenheit, above normal.

  • osmanthus
  • Administrator
  • Fingerer of piglets
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #1
Short version: the Arctic is fuckered.
Truth is out of style

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #2
We are doomed
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #3
Combined Arctic/Antarctic sea ice extent has dropped to five standard deviations below the mean. Both poles are experiencing record low extents for this time of year. Of course, it is summer in Antarctica so melt is expected. And the processes that shape ice growth and melt at each pole are quite different. But the decline in combined sea ice extent globally as both poles hit record low extents simultaneously is amazing.


Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #4
You know there has been a super El Nino over 2015/16 which has raised what we choose to measure as global temperatures.  You also know that when that happens a lot of heat gets transported to the poles.  What happens then is that the heat at the poles gets radiated to space.  In other words an El Nino event is when the the Earth coughs up a fur ball of oceanic heat and can you guess what happens next?  Global temperatures have already dropped in an 'unprecedentedly' spectacular way and the ENSO index is back to neutral tending towards La Nina.  As ENSO goes negative and AMO goes the same way plus a quiescent sun it's likely to get chilly for a while.

You do know that Arctic ice cover has varied considerably in a cyclical way over the last century don't you?

  • osmanthus
  • Administrator
  • Fingerer of piglets
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #5
Quote
Global temperatures have already dropped in an 'unprecedentedly' spectacular way...
Citation required. Not from Breitbart either.
Truth is out of style

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #6
What's weird about cephus' objection is that he's saying the big data models are wrong because they are modeling a chaotic system that can't be modeled then he goes on to propose his massively compressed model as more accurate.
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

  • osmanthus
  • Administrator
  • Fingerer of piglets
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #7
Hey, it's only wrong if someone else does it.
Truth is out of style

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #8
That's how I feel about a lot of things.
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #9
You know there has been a super El Nino over 2015/16 which has raised what we choose to measure as global temperatures.

No doubt you'll soon be crowing about a warming hiatus, just like you did after the last one.

Quote
You also know that when that happens a lot of heat gets transported to the poles.  What happens then is that the heat at the poles gets radiated to space.

And it also retards ice growth or enhances melt. Like it's doing now. Bigly.

Quote
In other words an El Nino event is when the the Earth coughs up a fur ball of oceanic heat and can you guess what happens next?

Watts bowels explode, releasing fecal matter all over the web?



  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #10
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #11






"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #12
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #13
What's weird about cephus' objection is that he's saying the big data models are wrong because they are modeling a chaotic system that can't be modeled then he goes on to propose his massively compressed model as more accurate.

I see you're still doing the model relativism gig Testy.  If it's a troll then haha good one!  If not I doubt it's possible to disabuse you of this but I'm ever optimistic and will have another go.

The big 'data' models I'm saying are wrong are the GCM's which are speculative in many areas, completely blind in other significant areas, too low in resolution to be of much practical utility and run with unevidenced and tbh astronomically unlikely positive water vapour feedback.  They have yet to correctly predict a single damn thing with the possible exception that there has been a small net positive temperature gradient over recent times.  I mean they got the gradient hopelessly wrong but never mind.  Of course the simple observation that we are recovering from the little ice age means we expect to be in a warming period around now anyway but whatever.

The "massively compressed model" I just used to explain heat transfer from warm ocean surface equatorial waters to the cold poles is usually called thermodynamics.  You know, the theory which is one of the basic central pillars of physics to which there are no known exceptions.

Do you see the difference and why I'm happy to accept the results from one but not the other?
  • Last Edit: December 14, 2016, 07:49:50 AM by Cephus0

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #14
You know there has been a super El Nino over 2015/16 which has raised what we choose to measure as global temperatures.

No doubt you'll soon be crowing about a warming hiatus, just like you did after the last one.

In whatever strange universe you inhabit looking at data as opposed to unvalidated model output = crowing.  Ok I got that.

You also know that when that happens a lot of heat gets transported to the poles.  What happens then is that the heat at the poles gets radiated to space.

And it also retards ice growth or enhances melt. Like it's doing now. Bigly.

Yes it does.  That's what happens when you get a bigly El Nino and El Nino is as you know a naturally occurring phenomenon.  So why then are you waving your chicken bones at the dip in ice cover as though it's something to do with carbon dioxide?  Did carbon dioxide just suddenly go through the roof and cause the bigly retardation of ice growth?

In other words an El Nino event is when the the Earth coughs up a fur ball of oceanic heat and can you guess what happens next?

Watts bowels explode, releasing fecal matter all over the web?

It's likely to get colder.  If it doesn't then you can come back here and I'll apologise profusely for ever having suggested such an outrageous thing.  Meanwhile I'l make this small prediction: that when the temperatures do begin to fall the voodoo climate pseudoscience industry will blame that too on human emitted carbon dioxide after having spent decades ensuring that we are completely unprepared to face it.

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #15
unevidenced and tbh astronomically unlikely positive water vapour feedback


  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #16
Meanwhile I'l make this small prediction: that when the temperatures do begin to fall the voodoo climate pseudoscience industry will blame that too on human emitted carbon dioxide after having spent decades ensuring that we are completely unprepared to face it.
For most of the NH the winters have been trending colder for some time now.  And they already blame it on global warming.

Try to keep up.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #17
"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #18
  • Last Edit: December 14, 2016, 08:59:05 AM by F X
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #19


In case you missed it somehow, the cooling trends as well as the warming trends shown there are both blamed on humans.

What's fascinating from a science POV, is that those regular up and down trends show up going back over a hundred years, and the actual data from weather stations (unadjusted) shows the cycles in winter and annual temperatures.

They also show up in the ocean data.




"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #20
For extra credit, can you name the cycles?  (they actually have a name, after the scientist who discovered them)

No, there is no article on them on Wikipedia.  You have to know what they are, it can't be easily googled.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #21
What's weird about cephus' objection is that he's saying the big data models are wrong because they are modeling a chaotic system that can't be modeled then he goes on to propose his massively compressed model as more accurate.

I see you're still doing the model relativism gig Testy.  If it's a troll then haha good one!  If not I doubt it's possible to disabuse you of this but I'm ever optimistic and will have another go.

The big 'data' models I'm saying are wrong are the GCM's which are speculative in many areas, completely blind in other significant areas, too low in resolution to be of much practical utility and run with unevidenced and tbh astronomically unlikely positive water vapour feedback.  They have yet to correctly predict a single damn thing with the possible exception that there has been a small net positive temperature gradient over recent times.  I mean they got the gradient hopelessly wrong but never mind.  Of course the simple observation that we are recovering from the little ice age means we expect to be in a warming period around now anyway but whatever.

The "massively compressed model" I just used to explain heat transfer from warm ocean surface equatorial waters to the cold poles is usually called thermodynamics.  You know, the theory which is one of the basic central pillars of physics to which there are no known exceptions.

Do you see the difference and why I'm happy to accept the results from one but not the other?
Are you saying thermodynamics are not accounted for in CGM's?
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #22
Are you saying thermodynamics are not accounted for in CGM's?
It's GCMs you tard.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_circulation_model
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #23
Are you saying thermodynamics are not accounted for in CGM's?
It's GCMs you tard.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_circulation_model
Right. In which thermodynamics are accounted for, right?
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #24
What's weird about cephus' objection is that he's saying the big data models are wrong because they are modeling a chaotic system that can't be modeled then he goes on to propose his massively compressed model as more accurate.

I see you're still doing the model relativism gig Testy.  If it's a troll then haha good one!  If not I doubt it's possible to disabuse you of this but I'm ever optimistic and will have another go.

The big 'data' models I'm saying are wrong are the GCM's which are speculative in many areas, completely blind in other significant areas, too low in resolution to be of much practical utility and run with unevidenced and tbh astronomically unlikely positive water vapour feedback.  They have yet to correctly predict a single damn thing with the possible exception that there has been a small net positive temperature gradient over recent times.  I mean they got the gradient hopelessly wrong but never mind.  Of course the simple observation that we are recovering from the little ice age means we expect to be in a warming period around now anyway but whatever.

The "massively compressed model" I just used to explain heat transfer from warm ocean surface equatorial waters to the cold poles is usually called thermodynamics.  You know, the theory which is one of the basic central pillars of physics to which there are no known exceptions.

Do you see the difference and why I'm happy to accept the results from one but not the other?
Are you saying thermodynamics are not accounted for in CGM's?

No.  I'm saying that GCM's use many complex and often interacting lines of theoretical input and also assumptions and parameters which aren't supported by empirical evidence.  They are essentially thermodynamic/fluid mechanical/radiation nonlinear coupled models where thermodynamics is one part of the three-way nonlinear coupling.

I think I see where you're heading with this argument now so I'll preemptively say that the transport of heat from equator to poles is not at all equivalent in terms of model complexity.  I don't care how the heat arrived in the ocean in the first place nor how it came to be at the surface during an El Nino.  All of that, complex as it may be, is irrelevant.  All I'm concerned with is the fact that it is hot and the poles are cold and so long as the two are not thermodynamically isolated then heat will flow from hot to cold.  I don't even care what the mechanism of heat transport is.  That too is irrelevant and I can treat it as a black box.  As it happens there is a nice thick atmosphere to thermodynamically connect the two via convection in the well known Hadley cells.

So I don't need to make any assumptions or consider complex nonlinear feedbacks or input questionable extrapolated and homogenised sparse data.  All I need do is make a pair of temperature measurements and note that the poles and equator are not thermodynamically isolated systems and that's all that's required for the thermodynamic model.