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Topic: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing (Read 1331 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #50
And the other point, which is valid, is that warmer oceans CAN CAUSE MORE SNOW in some regions, but only if it's COLD in those areas, otherwise there is more rain.  An increase in precip for regions where it's cold enough to snow WILL cause more snow, of course.

But that isn't what is being claimed. The claim is it snows more because it's warmer, which just isn't how it works.  The evidence shows this clearly.  A warm or mild winter never has a lot of snow, and a cold extreme winter does have more snow.

Regardless of the amount of precipitation.  This shows up clearly globally.

Once again, not for Greenland and areas where it is going to snow no matter the amount of precip, but in areas where most people live, where it matters the most.  Like Boston.  If it's a warm winter, more rain, less snow.  It's the extreme cold that makes for heavy snowfall, not the amount of precip.  Though both matter, it's just not how it works, to say it snowed more because it was warmer.

You have to look at the amount of water, the precip amounts.  A winter with low precip can have a lot of snow, or every little.  It depends on the temperature, and the weather patterns.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
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  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #51
Certainly if the oceans are warm, you can look at the data and see if the precip amounts increased.  (I did check)

And it's valid to claim warm open oceans (and lakes) can lead to more snow.  But you can't claim every heavy snow fall is due to warming, because it isn't true.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #52
Wow, the closest thing FX has posted to an acknowledgement that there's more to it than "idiots" and "fuckheads" in quite some time.

So do you think it's possible for increased energy in the system (i.e., global warming) to cause disruptions in atmospheric pressure systems, such that areas that are relatively warm (and indeed continuing to warm overall) might experience brief periods of extreme cold and (in concert with increased precipitation due to overall warming) experience unusually heavy snow events? Or is that an idiotic lie?

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #53
So do you think it's possible for increased energy in the system (i.e., global warming) to cause disruptions in atmospheric pressure systems, such that areas that are relatively warm (and indeed continuing to warm overall) might experience brief periods of extreme cold and (in concert with increased precipitation due to overall warming) experience unusually heavy snow events? Or is that an idiotic lie?
It's a simplistic idea, that's what is wrong with it.

If there was a warming trend, for the snow season, and there was more snow, one could make the argument that warming is causing the snowfall.  Or, if there was a cooling trend, and less snow, same argument.  It's mixing weather with climate to say one event is climate change.  The trend is what matters for climate, not any one event, or season, or even a couple of cold winters.

To claim global warming is the cause of record snow and cold, is a huge claim, and it's why it's not a settled issue by any means.  Even the cooling trend is disputed, though actual scientific studies do show that it's an actual trend.

They even named the Eurasian cooling "the Asian warming hole", because you can't just ignore it any longer.

Cold is very hard to ignore, and heavy and unusual snow impossible to ignore.

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #54
So there is a US warming hole, and an Asian warming hole, and of course the extreme snow and cold in Siberia, which Cohen has hypothesized is the mechanism for the NH winter cooling trend, centered around February.

It's interesting times.  Is CO2 causing it?  That's the real issue,
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #55
Nobody was arguing against that. Mild winters, at least over in the UK, mean more days above zero which means less days when you have any chance of snow at all.

Mild winters where its still below freezing (and isn't going to get above it at all) means more moisture can be held in the atmosphere, which means more potential snow, and warmer seas mean more moisture gets evaporated and goes into the system, so you get more precipitation of any kind.

I don't understand why this is such a controversial concept for you. Of course individual events will all be different, but you're looking at general trends.
Why do I bother?

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #56
Nobody was arguing against that.
Against what?  Just saying "that" isn't scientific, nor is it possible to know what you are claiming.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #57
Against what I said in my post. That mild winters mean less snow because its too warm to snow at all. A mild winter in Boston will give you lots of days above freezing and relatively little snow. A mild winter in Moscow will still be several degrees below on most days.
Why do I bother?

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #58
Against what I said in my post.

Which post?
  • Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 05:47:21 PM by F X
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #59
So do you think it's possible for increased energy in the system (i.e., global warming) to cause disruptions in atmospheric pressure systems, such that areas that are relatively warm (and indeed continuing to warm overall) might experience brief periods of extreme cold and (in concert with increased precipitation due to overall warming) experience unusually heavy snow events? Or is that an idiotic lie?
It's a simplistic idea, that's what is wrong with it.

It's not a simplistic idea at all. It's an idea that acknowledges the fact that global changes can have counterintuitive local impacts.

If there was a warming trend, for the snow season, and there was more snow, one could make the argument that warming is causing the snowfall.  Or, if there was a cooling trend, and less snow, same argument.

Now those would be simplistic ideas. In fact, there is a winter warming trend, globally. There is also a winter warming trend locally in the US in the long term, even in areas where there is a shorter term cooling trend. In fact, despite any recent local winter cooling trends, winters in the US this century have been considerably warmer than the average for the 20th century. So it certainly makes no sense to blame record snowfalls on local short-term cooling trends when those cooling trends haven't made a dent in the long-term warming trend for those areas.

It's mixing weather with climate to say one event is climate change.  The trend is what matters for climate, not any one event, or season, or even a couple of cold winters.

To claim global warming is the cause of record snow and cold, is a huge claim, and it's why it's not a settled issue by any means.

Well, this is really the point I've tried to get across in many discussions with you before. The snowfalls we're talking about, for the most part, in the context of the articles you like to deride as idiotic lies, are individual weather events, not descriptions of overall changes to climate. The connection that is usually made between those weather events and climate change is to describe a mechanism by which certain climate changes can make certain weather events more likely (i.e., the mechanism I described in my previous post). This is not to say that climate change caused a specific weather event (and the science certainly never says that). If these pop-sci articles do say that climate change caused a specific record snowfall, then they are wrong and misrepresenting the actual science, but most of the articles you tend to deride don't even really do that. Now you may still disagree that these climate changes can make extreme weather events more likely, and I think you are right that it isn't entirely settled, but it certainly isn't an idiotic or simplistic idea, and it is what much of the current scientific research suggests.

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #60
Lol Ben the braincell is back ;)

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #61
Nobody was arguing against that. Mild winters, at least over in the UK, mean more days above zero which means less days when you have any chance of snow at all.

Mild winters where its still below freezing (and isn't going to get above it at all) means more moisture can be held in the atmosphere, which means more potential snow, and warmer seas mean more moisture gets evaporated and goes into the system, so you get more precipitation of any kind.

I don't understand why this is such a controversial concept for you. Of course individual events will all be different, but you're looking at general trends.

You almost make it sound unreasonable that someone should think that it snows when it's cold.  So then as "carbon dioxide-driven temperatures" rise it appears that you would expect more snow.  The 'experts' of a few years back claimed that snow was a thing of the past because of carbon dioxide increases while the reality is much of the NH is like Martian spring - but never mind - you are an expert surpassing them and claim more snow instead.  I've asked this before but can you explain where and why the inflexion point lies between increasing snow due to increasing temperature and decreasing snow due to increasing temperature?   There must be one and it should fit with the geological record.

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #62
Nobody was arguing against that. Mild winters, at least over in the UK, mean more days above zero which means less days when you have any chance of snow at all.

Mild winters where its still below freezing (and isn't going to get above it at all) means more moisture can be held in the atmosphere, which means more potential snow, and warmer seas mean more moisture gets evaporated and goes into the system, so you get more precipitation of any kind.

I don't understand why this is such a controversial concept for you. Of course individual events will all be different, but you're looking at general trends.

You almost make it sound unreasonable that someone should think that it snows when it's cold.  So then as "carbon dioxide-driven temperatures" rise it appears that you would expect more snow.  The 'experts' of a few years back claimed that snow was a thing of the past because of carbon dioxide increases while the reality is much of the NH is like Martian spring - but never mind - you are an expert surpassing them and claim more snow instead.  I've asked this before but can you explain where and why the inflexion point lies between increasing snow due to increasing temperature and decreasing snow due to increasing temperature?   There must be one and it should fit with the geological record.
That would be 0'C or 32'F. You're welcome.
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  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #63
Against what I said in my post
It was your first post in the topic.  Your response makes no sense.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #64
Well, this is really the point I've tried to get across in many discussions with you before. The snowfalls we're talking about, for the most part, in the context of the articles you like to deride as idiotic lies, are individual weather events, not descriptions of overall changes to climate.
Bullshit. Both Mann and Trenberth clearly said, after the record snow fall in New England, that it was BECAUSE of the warming, which is bullshit as well.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #65
This myth that NH winters, or US winters, are warming is a lie.  Flat out lie.  The different climate regions have different trends, there is no "US winter", the entire country does not have the same climate.

The cherry picking usually starts at the coldest time for winters, and claims the "long term" is warming, which is bullshit.  It's a myth.

Anyone, even you, can simply check to see if a region that shows increasing snow is trending warmer or colder, for the period of increasing snow.  Same for a decrease in snow.

Note that where snow decreased, it actually was warning.  How does the alarmist fuckhead rationalize that?

There should have been an increase in precipitation in the warming areas, but instead we see a decrease.  And we see increasing snow where it is getting colder, which is exactly how weather works, as well as long term climate trends.

Except for those regions where precip is the main factor for snow, there we should see increasing snow with warming.  There are two different things.  The regions that always get snow, and the areas that depend on temperature to get snow.

They shown up clearly on the Rutgers snow lab graphics.  Where it is always snow covered they don't include any anomaly data, since it can't happen.  But the regions that show up as anomalies, there is where the temperature matters.  Colder means more snow, and no snow is always due to warmth.

It's physics.

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #66
And I know all this because I did the research, which anyone can actually do.  It's all online, and easy to use.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • Pingu
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #67
I have a Darwin-debased mind.

  • SR-71
  • Schmewbie
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #68
You know there has been a super El Nino over 2015/16 which has raised what we choose to measure as global temperatures.  You also know that when that happens a lot of heat gets transported to the poles.  What happens then is that the heat at the poles gets radiated to space.  In other words an El Nino event is when the the Earth coughs up a fur ball of oceanic heat and can you guess what happens next?  Global temperatures have already dropped in an 'unprecedentedly' spectacular way and the ENSO index is back to neutral tending towards La Nina.  As ENSO goes negative and AMO goes the same way plus a quiescent sun it's likely to get chilly for a while.

You do know that Arctic ice cover has varied considerably in a cyclical way over the last century don't you?

Like Neil "The Grass" says, keep your eye on the man, not the dog.  Natural variability is superimposed on the rising trend of AGW. Click to see trend for El Nino, La Nina and neutral years.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/oXcA9oq04n4?wmode=opaque&feature=oembed

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #69
Cooling



Global warming



Cooling



"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #70
This myth that NH winters, or US winters, are warming is a lie.  Flat out lie.  The different climate regions have different trends, there is no "US winter", the entire country does not have the same climate.

The cherry picking usually starts at the coldest time for winters, and claims the "long term" is warming, which is bullshit.  It's a myth.

Anyone, even you, can simply check to see if a region that shows increasing snow is trending warmer or colder, for the period of increasing snow.  Same for a decrease in snow.

Note that where snow decreased, it actually was warning.  How does the alarmist fuckhead rationalize that?

There should have been an increase in precipitation in the warming areas, but instead we see a decrease.  And we see increasing snow where it is getting colder, which is exactly how weather works, as well as long term climate trends.

Except for those regions where precip is the main factor for snow, there we should see increasing snow with warming.  There are two different things.  The regions that always get snow, and the areas that depend on temperature to get snow.

They shown up clearly on the Rutgers snow lab graphics.  Where it is always snow covered they don't include any anomaly data, since it can't happen.  But the regions that show up as anomalies, there is where the temperature matters.  Colder means more snow, and no snow is always due to warmth.

It's physics.


NH is warming though.

https://www.google.co.kr/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://commons.pacificu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi%3Farticle%3D1024%26context%3Dijurca&ved=0ahUKEwjls-KRwsXRAhWEE5QKHWhpDosQFggjMAE&usg=AFQjCNGhgTDPc1pm5JqTtufMpuiVA41TPQ&sig2=haUVAKso2hwvSrrRkiP4bw

And another:
https://www.google.co.kr/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi%3Farticle%3D1112%26context%3Dcarsey&ved=0ahUKEwjls-KRwsXRAhWEE5QKHWhpDosQFggzMAU&usg=AFQjCNHKxw0kCHxf0-nIgU9rFcT0p6hLzg&sig2=1mqlR55FN9q9JbGRVnDYKw

If NH isn't warming, how come the weather stations in NH show warming?
  • Last Edit: January 15, 2017, 05:40:04 PM by [Serious]

  • SkepticTank
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  • Calmer than you are
Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #71
npr had a bit about how the oil industry denying global warming is similar to the tobacco industry denying cancer (caused by smoking) 50 years ago.  I only heard a few minutes of it as I was driving to/from the store, but it was interesting.

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #72
Well, this is really the point I've tried to get across in many discussions with you before. The snowfalls we're talking about, for the most part, in the context of the articles you like to deride as idiotic lies, are individual weather events, not descriptions of overall changes to climate.
Bullshit. Both Mann and Trenberth clearly said, after the record snow fall in New England, that it was BECAUSE of the warming, which is bullshit as well.
That would be a weird thing for Trenberth to clearly say when he clearly said this (http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-012-0441-5):

Quote
The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question. All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be.
  • Last Edit: January 17, 2017, 08:16:27 AM by BenTheBiased

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #73
This myth that NH winters, or US winters, are warming is a lie.  Flat out lie.

No, it's just a statement that lacks enough context to either be true or false, as should be clear from the very next thing you wrote...

The different climate regions have different trends, there is no "US winter", the entire country does not have the same climate.

The cherry picking usually starts at the coldest time for winters, and claims the "long term" is warming, which is bullshit.  It's a myth.

Again, it depends on what is meant by "long term," but the trend for 1900 to the present is one of warming winters for the entire country, except possibly a small area of the Southeast. I feel pretty confident that the data supports that statement...



The rest of your post has nothing whatsoever to do with my point.

Re: The Arctic's Not Re-Freezing
Reply #74
Lol Ben the braincell is back ;)
Lol Post some more content-free rants.