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Topic: 2017 hurricane season (Read 4084 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • rednoise
  • Sludgey Southern Kitcheneer
2017 hurricane season
The Pacific has been more active than the Atlantic this far in, but no one gives a shit about the Pacific. There are two areas of interest in the Atlantic right now; one system has a 50% chance of turning into something organized within the next 48 hours, SE of the Lesser Antilles. Right behind it is another unorganized system that has about a 20% chance of something being organized within the next 48 hours.

This season is going to suck for tracking because the NWS just went through some upgrades to their models, and the upgrades didn't really do anything. The GFS and NAM are still relatively terrible. But we have to have something to show for it so meteorologists will probably try to use it as much as possible, while trying to put less importance on the much more superior ECMWF model (of course, in conjunction with everything else in the spaghetti models), as they have in the past. The United States sucks once again and we'll all probably suffer for it.

In an ideal world, we would get a superstorm like Sandy. but which doesn't cause as much damage as it did and is just very localized in what it chooses to destroy; namely to pick up a sufficiently heavy piece of debris and hurling it at Trump. Or causes some very localized flooding and washes him into the Atlantic.

EDIT:  All info will come from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.
  • Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 11:19:38 AM by rednoise
"Marx and myself, one has fought harder all one's life long against the alleged Socialists than against anyone else"

-Engels

  • rednoise
  • Sludgey Southern Kitcheneer
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #1
"Marx and myself, one has fought harder all one's life long against the alleged Socialists than against anyone else"

-Engels

  • ksen
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #2
How convenient TS Don shows up the day after your glorious return. :hmm:

  • rednoise
  • Sludgey Southern Kitcheneer
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #3
And then dies the day after? Short lived and weak as fuck.
"Marx and myself, one has fought harder all one's life long against the alleged Socialists than against anyone else"

-Engels

Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #4
Several new ones were added recently. Hunker down, ksen!

  • ksen
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #5
I'm going to Orlando Saturday to spend the evening at Universal. Think I'll be ok?

  • MikeS
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #6
Looks like you'll be fine.  I'm in Lakeland (between Tampa and Orlando) and it's pretty much afternoon showers only.  These depressions will probably dry up the central Florida region and maybe cause a little wind but that's about it.


  • ravenscape
  • Administrator
  • Triggered
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #7
I'll be in FL for most of September.  :staregonk:

Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #8
I have to admit, I would love to see Mar a lago levelled by a hurricane.... :D

  • ksen
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #9
Looks like you'll be fine.  I'm in Lakeland (between Tampa and Orlando) and it's pretty much afternoon showers only.  These depressions will probably dry up the central Florida region and maybe cause a little wind but that's about it.

It rained during the evening.  Not like a downpour but just enough to wet your clothes and hair by the time you enter Universal City Walk and walk around to the Hard Rock.

  • MikeS
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #10
I'll be in FL for most of September.  :staregonk:
Oh, that's neat.  The NOAA page autoupdates whenever you enter the page.

I posted the Aug. 10 summary and now it's updated to today Aug. 15.

Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #11
Speaking of the 2017 Hurricane season...


  • rednoise
  • Sludgey Southern Kitcheneer
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #12


Looks like I'll be taking a direct hit here in a few days.
"Marx and myself, one has fought harder all one's life long against the alleged Socialists than against anyone else"

-Engels

Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #13
hurricane or storm?
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

  • ksen
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #14
Hang in there buddy!

  • rednoise
  • Sludgey Southern Kitcheneer
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #15
hurricane or storm?

They're not sure yet. I'm looking at the local forecast discussion and they seem like they don't want to say anything conclusive about how much it'll strengthen, but they're also just taking their cue from the NHC. It won't have much time to sit in the Bay of Campeche, though, so if it does strengthen, it probably won't be that bad (then again, the Gulf of Mexico is really hot atm.) Main issue will be flooding, though.

If I had to guess, mid-strength tropical storm to a weak hurricane. The last few times a hurricane hit the Texas coast, it's come up on the coast and disintegrated. I'd imagine the same thing will happen here. The strong hurricanes that hit Texas tend to form in the Caribbean rather than crossing over the Yucatan first.

But who knows! This shit's all a crap shoot.
"Marx and myself, one has fought harder all one's life long against the alleged Socialists than against anyone else"

-Engels

  • MikeS
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #16
Expect a lot of rain no matter the strength of the storm.

  • rednoise
  • Sludgey Southern Kitcheneer
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #17
Yeah, it's going to slow down when it actually hits. There's a front going through Texas that's going to block it. I think last estimates I saw, where I'm at is about 13 to 15 inches of rain possible.
"Marx and myself, one has fought harder all one's life long against the alleged Socialists than against anyone else"

-Engels

  • rednoise
  • Sludgey Southern Kitcheneer
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #18
Just saw an NHC discussion saying a warm eddy broke off into the path of the storm, making it intensifying into a hurricane a high probability.

We're trying to decide when to leave for Austin. Maybe tomorrow night, but maybe earlier.
"Marx and myself, one has fought harder all one's life long against the alleged Socialists than against anyone else"

-Engels

Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #19
Can you tie down the trailer?
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

  • rednoise
  • Sludgey Southern Kitcheneer
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #20
We could, but the tie downs wouldn't be up to code. They'd be tied to shitty anchors in sand and caliche. We're among trees, so wind isn't too much my concern. It's the flooding.

So, I dunno what we're going to come back to. Pretty scared, but we'll press on.
"Marx and myself, one has fought harder all one's life long against the alleged Socialists than against anyone else"

-Engels

Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #21
I wish I could help.
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

  • SkepticTank
  • Global Moderator
  • Calmer than you are
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #22
We're expecting lots of rain and up to 50 mph winds last time I checked the local news. There have been 3-4 major flooding events around Houston in the last two years, and two of them have had my neighborhood flood within a few inches of my foundation.

  • borealis
  • Administrator
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #23
Good luck, Texans.

I read 2 to 4 feet of rain might fall in some areas. Can that even be right?

  • SkepticTank
  • Global Moderator
  • Calmer than you are
Re: 2017 hurricane season
Reply #24
Good luck, Texans.

I read 2 to 4 feet of rain might fall in some areas. Can that even be right?
Depends on how long it lingers.  One of our recent flooding events I think we had a foot overnight. Allison dropped 3 feet of rain on Houston, but it lasted forever.