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Messages - Martin.au

1
Ahhh. Just remembering the original argument from this thread, since dropped like a hot potato. Happy times. :D
2
Don't even need to faff around with cheques. You can just use credit card.
https://ncse.secure.force.com/donate?UnitPrice1=100

And, if you donate more than $40, you get a year's membership to their newsletter. :D
3
I expect it's more about avoiding an early knifing. I kinda thought the LNP had sorted out their fascist/conservative problem a bit with the defection of Bernardi.
4
Here we go. The Australian right wing wants to to copy US Republican voter suppression tactics. ::)

Because they're champions of democracy, of course.

Labor says NSW voter ID plan is 'undemocratic' and unnecessary

Quote
The recommendation was made by NSW's joint standing committee on electoral matters, despite evidence from the NSW Electoral Commission that voter fraud was not taking place on any significant scale.

The then NSW electoral commissioner, Colin Barry, told the committee that the laws were likely to bring "no gain but substantial downsides".

"My concern would be that making voting more inconvenient to electors will act to reduce participation, particularly amongst older electors and those who may have a tenuous engagement with the democratic process," Barry said.

The ABC's election analyst, Antony Green, also gave evidence to the committee in a personal capacity, cautioning against implementing a voter identification requirement.

"I worry about voter ID laws, partly because I think that it is a solution looking for a problem," Green said.

Idiots. That's not going to be very effective in a country with compulsory voting. I suspect it's going to go down as another coalition brainfart.
6
Dave still didn't answer my question. :(
7
So much for the tolerant left. :D
8
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/20/us-forbids-devices-larger-cell-phones-flights-13-countries

What the hell?

US authorities have secretly required airlines from 13 nations to forbid passengers from carrying any electronic or electrical device larger than a cellphone.

The new edict was distributed in an email described as "confidential" from the US transportation safety administration (TSA) on Monday.
9
Dave not answer my question. Sad!
10
Morality rating system - 10=good, 1=bad

Sex with wife - 10
Sex by unmarried person with unmarried prostitute who is not being coerced by a pimp, etc - 7
Ditto above, but coerced by pimp - 1
Sex by married person without spousal consent with unmarried prostitute who is not being coerced - 5 (depends on reason)
Ditto above but with someone else's spouse - 1

Does that clear things up?

Where do you classify:
Consensual sex with long term, committed partner of opposite sex?
Consensual sex with long term, committed partner of same sex?
11
Hmmm, Finland 38% renewables in 2014, much cheaper than Italy, at 17%, Spain at 20% and Ireland at 16%, and even Denmark at 30% (in 2014).

Excellent, so from your chart, we can conclude renewables are cheaper.

Perhaps put in a bit more work next time.
12
I was going to ask him if he was going to do the rest of the work his graph required, or whether he considered it "evidence" on its own.
13
Cephus, really, the plan the state government have just come up with is entirely concerned with reliability of supply. That's the whole point of it. It is safe to assume that it will be as well engineered as any other commercially available solution. And it has also been chosen with economics in mind, even though there is probably no way you will believe this.

No I do understand they believe that.  I don't suspect anything nefarious is going on at all and they are acting fully in good faith.  There are engineers who disagree with their approach though and it is indeed interesting to watch as the whole thing unfolds.  They are leading the pack here and some will not wish to gamble on them being correct.

The most fascinating thing about it is that they cannot ever even in principle admit to being wrong.  I'm not saying they are wrong at this stage but whether they believe in the engineering and economical cases or not, if it all goes tits up they are bound to say it was all a huge success anyway because of the planet-saving ideology.  The fact that Australia is feeding gigatons of coal directly into the furnaces of Asia is entirely irrelevant - the ideology says that little SA must be carbon free - and so free it will be at any cost.  They say there's nothing new under the sun but I'm not sure there's ever been anything to parallel this case.



Out of curiosity, what would your solution be?
14
Bit of an update on The Mal from Snowy River. RN Drive had the former executive officer of Snowy Hydro's strategic engineering talking about it. According to him, the gummint's claim of up and running in 4 years is extremely optimistic. He estimates 7 to 10 years.

I get the impression he also thinks the estimate of $2 billion is a bit of a joke, although he didn't throw any other figures around. He still seems to think the feasibility study is worth doing.

One weird thing he did say was that the system would need baseload to pump the water back uphill at night. That may have been a brain fart, or he may not have thought through the operation, because pretty obviously the water is most likely to be used at night if there is also significant use of solar during the day.

Not much solar in NSW yet, but electricity may be cheaper at night, when demand is low. I think they might be thinking about this hydro system in a different way than we are. :D
15
Thought so.

"This governance system leaves little space for the SA government to take action to ensure system security. On the contrary, the NEM was set up to remove direct government involvement in the electricity sector. This was because a market was considered more efficient to achieve the same service."

https://theconversation.com/south-australias-energy-plan-deals-a-blow-to-state-federal-relations-74703

Turns out the SA government doesn't have much influence in energy management.......until now. :D
16
Hmmm hydro, now solar.

How long till we hear Malcolm utter "multi technology mix"? :D
17
With stuff like this, I always try and imagine the society that occurs as an end result (assuming no intervention). I often look to distopian films as a way to summarise my opinion.

Dredd (2012) is too socialist for this budget.
Snowpiercer is a better approximation. Separate the poor from the rich, and let the poor starve.

Given that workers are less and less necessary to production due to automation and robotics, there are basically two options for capitalism: UBI and eugenics.  I think as a class, they'll do what they can get away with.  Class war grows ever nearer to war for survival.

I've always assumed the .01% wouldn't get away with starving the 99.99% -- that the rest of us wouldn't just lie down and let the oligarchs starve billions to death.

The willingness of Trumpists in their MAGA hats to do just that makes me feel like I've been overly optimistic.
the trick is to make security/military jobs pay well.

No. The trick is to make security & military jobs pay 'enough', where 'enough' has to be a little bit more than what poor people get. Then just let the naturally thuggish side of humanity fill the positions, MAGA hats and all.

They'll be happy because they have more than the people they can beat up on, and their bosses will be happy because they are cheap.

In addition, making them cheap and expendable means they'll do all sorts of nasty to keep their jobs.

Too cynical?
18
With stuff like this, I always try and imagine the society that occurs as an end result (assuming no intervention). I often look to distopian films as a way to summarise my opinion.

Dredd (2012) is too socialist for this budget.
Snowpiercer is a better approximation. Separate the poor from the rich, and let the poor starve.
19
That's pretty fucked up (Not you, TBM, the budget).
20
It's a fuck-up. ::) The main problem has been market regulation, or more accurately lack of it. The short version is that the power generating companies can make more money by letting the system go to the wall than they can by keeping everything stable. This is a failure on the federal level, but they want to blame the states for it if, this is the important bit, said state is currently governed by the Labor party (federal opposition, at the moment). They don't want to blame any states that are run by LNP governments at the moment, because that would be shooting themselves in the foot.

I could go into more detail, as could Martin and Fenrir. How much do you want?

Not sure how much control any particular state can affect on the "National Energy Market" anyway. SA's government doesn't currently own any power generation capacity (Nothing major anyway). It's all private sector.
21
So does Australia have an actual crisis in generation capacity (or, in this case, reserve capacity) or did the market that was set up NOT cover the shortfall in SA during a time of lower renewable generation.
It seems, from the outside, that any market set up from existing assets that doesn't at LEAST provide the same service and back-up that existed before is an inefficient system.  It falls directly into the Energy Ministers lap if he is in charge of regulating the power providers to cover shortfalls in the system no matter where they occur; and for him to come out an lambast a region for not "preparing" correctly when the prior state controlled system provided all the cover necessary is the height of hubris.

The others have discussed market problems, but I'll add that there may soon be a problem with capacity too. Hazelwood (1600MW), one of the big coal power stations in Victoria is going to shutdown in a week or two.

This is going to hurt and benefit SA at the same time.

Less capacity interstate may make those states less likely to be able to supply energy to SA on bad renewable days, or days of high demand. However, it also raises the demand for renewables to flow back across the border to Victoria.

Which partly explains why SA is beefing up our own capacity, and isolating ourselves to some degree from the market. The "insurance" that was available through the Heywood interconnector with power from Victoria may not be as reliable as it has been in the past.
22
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
What's the movie that seriously involves air traffic controllers? i'ts apparently not Tin Cup or Happy Gilmore. So what is it?

Thinking about it, I think it probably is Tin Cup, and descriptions of the film have just failed me.
Ground Control?

John Cusack, Cate Blanchett, Billy Bob Thornton and Angelina Jolie in "Pushing Tin"?
Shit, I'll have to check that out. With a cast like that it's gotta be worth a look. :yes:


Eh. Don't get your hopes up. :D
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/pushing_tin
48%
23
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
What's the movie that seriously involves air traffic controllers? i'ts apparently not Tin Cup or Happy Gilmore. So what is it?

Thinking about it, I think it probably is Tin Cup, and descriptions of the film have just failed me.
Ground Control?

John Cusack, Cate Blanchett, Billy Bob Thornton and Angelina Jolie in "Pushing Tin"?

lol. Holy fuck. That's it. You're brilliant.

I estimate I've watched over 10,000 films thus far. :D
24
Politics and Current Events / Re: Trumpocalypse
What's the movie that seriously involves air traffic controllers? i'ts apparently not Tin Cup or Happy Gilmore. So what is it?

Thinking about it, I think it probably is Tin Cup, and descriptions of the film have just failed me.
Ground Control?

John Cusack, Cate Blanchett, Billy Bob Thornton and Angelina Jolie in "Pushing Tin"?
25
Just saw Truffles waving his dick around and pretending to be Banjo on steroids. Mighty impressive stuff. :grin:

This Snowy 2.0 idea sounds like it's worth looking at. It may (or may not) be a good option for the long term. At the same time it's pretty obviously been pulled out of their arses, with bugger all thought or preparation, just so they can wave something around now that SA has given them a wedgie. Pure "ours is bigger than yours" posturing. And it does absolutely nothing to fix the current problems that started this bunfight off.

I can help thinking of Utopia whenever a pollie in the shit starts banging on about "nation-building" projects of great expense that will be awesome in a decade or so. Particularly when said pollie and his mates have never mentioned it before. :p

Minor issue with the Snowy 2 scheme (from what I've read so far), is that it's basically a big pumped hydro system - essentially a big battery. Batteries and pumped hydro will be awesome, once there is adequate power to charge them up. However, plugging them into the existing NSW and Vic grids, means that most of the charging will be done using coal.

They'll make cash off it, by pumping during low demand (cheap) times, and producing power during high demand (pricey) times. However, what those states really need to make good use of such a scheme is bucketloads of renewables to do the pumping.