Skip to main content
Log In | Register

TR Memescape


Topic: obamacare repeal effort thread (Read 2359 times) previous topic - next topic

Autonemesis, el jefe, Bilirubin, JonF, Faid, Quizalufagus and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.
  • 647

  • 201

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #150
fair enough!

but our PResident is an anti-vaxxer idiot so

  • osmanthus
  • Administrator
  • Fingerer of piglets
  • 3,962

  • 806

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #151
Look on the bright side: this shit is likely to kill a lot of really stupid people.
Truth is out of style

  • 1,936

  • 660

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #152
And people with compromised immune systems who have to depend on stupid people doing the right thing for herd immunity.


 :stareicide:

  • osmanthus
  • Administrator
  • Fingerer of piglets
  • 3,962

  • 806

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #153
Collateral damage.
Truth is out of style

  • el jefe
  • Needs a Life
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
  • 2,007

  • 417

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #154
Collins now firmly against the ahca

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/324423-susan-collins-comes-out-against-house-gop-healthcare-bill

she had criticized the bill before and urged the house to reconsider the medicaid rollback.  but now she is actually saying she can't support it. 

she did qualify that with "in its current form".  however, I don't think that means she is persuadable.  she says the bill "really misses the mark" and "doesn't come close to achieving the goal of allowing low-income seniors to purchase health insurance".  I read that as her saying she is not even close to a yes.  ...  I think adding "in its current form" was just to soften the blow a little.

  • osmanthus
  • Administrator
  • Fingerer of piglets
  • 3,962

  • 806

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #155
Trump now firmly in favour of the AHCA. :grin:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/17/14961066/donald-trump-gop-health-bill

Quote
"I want everyone to know I'm 100 percent behind [the American Health Care Act]," President Trump said today. "The press has not been speaking properly about how great this is going to be. I watch, I say, 'That's not the bill we're passing.'
Which will make it hard to pin it all on Ryan. :popcorn:
Truth is out of style

  • 6,661

  • 983

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #156
Trump now firmly in favour of the AHCA. :grin:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/17/14961066/donald-trump-gop-health-bill

Quote
"I want everyone to know I'm 100 percent behind [the American Health Care Act]," President Trump said today. "The press has not been speaking properly about how great this is going to be. I watch, I say, 'That's not the bill we're passing.'
Which will make it hard to pin it all on Ryan. :popcorn:
ryan is so ten minutes from now, aka invisible?
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

  • el jefe
  • Needs a Life
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
  • 2,007

  • 417

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #157
house vote scheduled for thursday, on the 7th anniversary of obama signing the law

http://us.cnn.com/2017/03/17/politics/house-obamacare-repeal-thursday/index.html

house gop leaders "continue to work toward" getting enough votes and are optimistic they will get there, with the president's help.  the freedom caucus said their position hasn't changed and they are not sure what leadership is thinking. 

my impression is trump has legitimately picked up a few votes, and is thinking he can close the rest of the gap at least partly with fauxmentum - winning by manufacturing the impression you're already winning.  it seems to have worked on gop primary voters a year ago.  let's see if it works on gop congressmen now.

have your popcorn ready on Thursday

  • SkepticTank
  • Global Moderator
  • Calmer than you are
  • 2,272

  • 335

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #158
Has Steve Scalise (Majority Whip) come out one way or the other on this?

eta:  Yes

  • el jefe
  • Needs a Life
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
  • 2,007

  • 417

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #159
there are two competing self-fulfilling perceptions here.  basically, republican fence-sitters don't want to be on the losing side.  so if its chances of getting through both houses look clearly better than 50-50, they tend to grow from there.  and vice versa if the chances are clearly under 50-50.

a specific aspect of the second one, which may be playing out, is that even if chances are improving in the house, house republicans know the current bill is in real trouble in the senate.  do they want to be on record voting to cut medicaid, in a bill that is doomed in the senate?  probably not, if their state relies heavily on it.

also, stepping back a little, the fact that it appears impossible to simultaneously address the objections of enough holdouts in both the house and Senate is probably apparent to everyone. that must give them the impression it's unlikely to pass, possibly triggering the self-fulfilling perception that it won't pass, as we get close to the day of the vote.

  • el jefe
  • Needs a Life
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
  • 2,007

  • 417

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #160
possible turn of events to watch for:

late panic in gop ranks prompts ryan to reschedule the vote.  trump angrily chews him out over the phone, believing (correctly) that the rescheduling is a sign of weakness that will further hurt the bill's chances.  however, ryan explains that the bill's chances were already too low, so the choice was between embarassing delay and likely humiliating defeat, rather than simply between winning and losing as trump seems to think.  trump does not understand this response, because it has too many words, and angrily persists in calling ryan weak and pathetic.

though all of this is premised on the bill's apparent chances in the house deteriorating in the final days, which may not be the case.  guapo's odds of this scenario: 30%

  • SkepticTank
  • Global Moderator
  • Calmer than you are
  • 2,272

  • 335

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #161
I'll go with they know they don't have the votes and change it to repeal now and replace later (basically Rand's plan, right???) and never replace it with anything.

  • el jefe
  • Needs a Life
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
  • 2,007

  • 417

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #162
senate won't go along with that

  • 6,661

  • 983

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #163
I think it would be political suicide.
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

  • el jefe
  • Needs a Life
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
  • 2,007

  • 417

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #164
the hill counts at least 16 house republicans against the ahca.  assuming democrats hold the line, ryan can only afford to lose 21.

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/322903-the-hills-whip-list-where-republicans-stand-on-obamacare-repeal-plan

eta:  they also count 8 as likely/lean no, and 12 as unclear/uncertain.

assuming these estimates are ~correct, trump and ryan need to win over 15 from the 12 unclears + 8 lean-no's

that seems like an uphill battle.
  • Last Edit: March 18, 2017, 03:56:38 PM by el jefe

  • 647

  • 201

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #165

  • el jefe
  • Needs a Life
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
  • 2,007

  • 417

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #166
the hill's count has no votes up 1, to 17.  still 8 lean-no, and 12 unclear/undecided.


  • 647

  • 201

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #167
Only Nixon could go to China, only Republicans could bring us single payer


  • ksen
  • Needs a Life
  • 910

  • 189

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #168
Huh, wonder what changed between last year and this year?

  • 1,348

  • 197

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #169
Enough time had passed that people got to use their access to healthcare?
Why do I bother?

  • el jefe
  • Needs a Life
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
  • 2,007

  • 417

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #170
Enough time had passed that people got to use their access to healthcare?
that's one thing.

also, I suspect Andrew Sullivan was right:  to make sense of the republican opposition to obamacare, you have to drop the "care" part.  so maybe now that the terrifying, black, closet-terrorist "dictator!!!!1!1" is gone and America's glorious Anglo-Saxon leadership is restored, they can settle down and think rationally about health insurance policy.

and here's a third possible contributing factor.  during the obamacare debates and implementation, some conservatives lamented that single payer would have been better than this.  I took it as completely insincere, opportunistic crocodile tears, since their main objections to obamacare had been that it was "socialized medicine" and "a government takeover of health care", and single payer obviously would have gone further than the ACA in both respects.  however, maybe they actually meant it.  or at least have convinced themselves of it since then.

fourth possibility:  a segment of the gop has imprinted on trump like ducklings, and he has made several (admittedly casual) endorsements of the idea that the government should buy everyone health insurance.  this view was then downloaded into the minds of tens of millions of MAGA-bots.

hey, however they get there...

  • 353

  • 78

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #171
ROFL. MAGA-bots. Nice.

  • el jefe
  • Needs a Life
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
  • 2,007

  • 417

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #172

  • JonF
  • Needs a Life
  • 2,825

  • 249

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #173
And Jesus said to Paul of Ryan...

Quote
"Look, Jesus, you have rare talent, and it should be rewarded," Pious Paul said. "I have a partner, The Donald, who would like to work with you: He'd set up a lovely hospital, and the rich would come and pay for you to heal them. You'd get a percentage, and it'd be a real money-spinner. Overhead would be minimal because every morning you could multiply some loaves and fishes. You could strike it rich!"
"I would never consider my evaluation of his work to be fair minded unless I had actually read his own words." - Dave Hawkins

  • el jefe
  • Needs a Life
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
  • 2,007

  • 417

Re: obamacare repeal effort thread
Reply #174
freedom caucus is saying they have the votes to kill it. 

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/324921-house-conservatives-say-they-have-enough-votes-to-defeat-obamacare-bill

and I'm guessing they are not counting the votes of moderate republicans who are against the bill for opposite reasons.