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Topic: Global warming is making for record cold  (Read 939 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • Pingu
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #50
It's a complicated situation.  Some regions are warming, some are cooling, some are staying the same. 

That is why I asked you about global means.

The ocean data and surface data and satellite data and ice and snow data does not show a greenhouse forced warming.  That much is certain.

Unless you change the theory, you can't say the 20 year trend is global warming from CO2 forcing.  It does not fit the theory.

Cohen and others may turn out to be right, but that would mean a different theory of greenhouse warming.  I think the ozone/CfCs theory, along with solar forcing, explains things better than the CO2 theory.  Hansen agrees with me.

So it's not the warming you are denying, it's the cause?

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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #51
Hansen et al 2000

Quote
A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting.
https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha05200y.html
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #52
Are you going to post anything to respond to or not?
post 32

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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #53
Hansen et al 2000

Quote
A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting.
https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha05200y.html

Right.  So you accept that there is net warming, and that GHGs are substantially responsible, but you think that the contribution from CO2 is overestimated?

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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #54
Interesting that Hansen held that view in 2000. I don't know if he still does, wrt the rate of warming in the decades prior to that.
But here's what he wrote in 2008:

Quote
Combined, GHGs other than CO2 cause climate forcing comparable to that of CO2 [2, 6], but growth of non-CO2 GHGs is falling below IPCC [2] scenarios. Thus total GHG climate forcing change is now determined mainly by CO2 [69]. Coincidentally, CO2 forcing is similar to the net human-made forcing, because non-CO2 GHGs tend to offset negative aerosol forcing [2, 5].
Thus we take future CO2 change as approximating the net human-made forcing change, with two caveats. First, special effort to reduce non-CO2 GHGs could alleviate the CO2 requirement, allowing up to about +25 ppm CO2 for the same climate effect, while resurgent growth of non- CO2 GHGs could reduce allowed CO2 a similar amount [6].
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #55
So you accept that there is net warming, and that GHGs are substantially responsible, but you think that the contribution from CO2 is overestimated?
No, it;s not that simple, you keep trying to state a position and then ask if that is what I "accept" or "agree" with. It's not like that in science. I think ozone depletion AND CfCs and contrails and deforestation and dams and ship tracks and solar changes and air pollution and volcanoes and ocean cycles and stratospheric changes and probably a lot more, all influence the system.  And that we don't actually know enough about the natural changes to be able to tell what part is our doing. 

CO2 is a minor issue to me.  It's certainly not settled that it will cause a water vapor feedback loop and cook the planet.  And since past warmings were far greater than current levels, I'm not worried the ice caps will melt soon.  In fact, it very well may be that an enhanced greenhouse effect will end up causing them to expand. Plass and others wrestled with this problem.  How could the glacier building phase start when CO2 levels were the highest?  What would an enhanced greenhouse effect actually cause?

Remember this started with theories to explain the ice ages.
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #56
So you accept that there is net warming, and that GHGs are substantially responsible, but you think that the contribution from CO2 is overestimated?
No, it;s not that simple, you keep trying to state a position and then ask if that is what I "accept" or "agree" with.

I'm just trying to establish what your current position is.

It's not like that in science.
::)
I think ozone depletion AND CfCs and contrails and deforestation and dams and ship tracks and solar changes and air pollution and volcanoes and ocean cycles and stratospheric changes and probably a lot more, all influence the system.  And that we don't actually know enough about the natural changes to be able to tell what part is our doing. 

CO2 is a minor issue to me.  It's certainly not settled that it will cause a water vapor feedback loop and cook the planet.  And since past warmings were far greater than current levels, I'm not worried the ice caps will melt soon.  In fact, it very well may be that an enhanced greenhouse effect will end up causing them to expand. Plass and others wrestled with this problem.  How could the glacier building phase start when CO2 levels were the highest?  What would an enhanced greenhouse effect actually cause?

Remember this started with theories to explain the ice ages.

OK, I get the picture.

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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #57

Quote
To understand the drivers of this winter cooling trend, we perform three 20-member ensembles of simulations with different prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice in the atmospheric model ECHAM6. Our experimental results suggest that the Arctic sea ice loss does not drive systematic changes in the Northern Hemisphere large-scale circulation in the past decades.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL065327/full

:stuckup:

One could argue that running computer models isn't an actual experiment, but the cause of the cooling trend is still debated.  (other theories are Cohens Siberia snow feedback, stratospheric changes from the sun, Pacific ocean cooling, ozone loss, and about 20 others)
  • Last Edit: January 20, 2017, 09:03:50 AM by F X
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #58
Ewing and Donn were one of the reasons I used to be worried about an early ice age coming.  The theory that an ice free arctic is the driver of climate change was rejected, but the science they used was sound.

Clearly low arctic ice is going to cause something to happen.  But like so many things, it's hard to be able to know what exactly that will be.
  • Last Edit: January 20, 2017, 09:12:21 AM by F X
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #59


The extreme warming shown for the arctic and northern climes doesn't mean it's warmer in winter.  Like with northern Siberia, or Canada, where the trend means instead of averaging -55F in winter, it might average -45F in winter.

People get confused and think the warm colors means it's warm.  It's not.  It's just not as cold.
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #60
Quote
To understand the drivers of this winter cooling trend, we perform three 20-member ensembles of simulations with different prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice in the atmospheric model ECHAM6. Our experimental results suggest that the Arctic sea ice loss does not drive systematic changes in the Northern Hemisphere large-scale circulation in the past decades.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL065327/full
Quote
To understand the drivers of this winter cooling trend, we perform three 20-member ensembles of simulations with different prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice in the atmospheric model ECHAM6. Our experimental results suggest that the Arctic sea ice loss does not drive systematic changes in the Northern Hemisphere large-scale circulation in the past decades. The observed Eurasian winter cooling trend over 1998-2012 arises essentially from atmospheric internal variability and constitutes an extreme climate event. However, the observed reduction in Arctic sea ice enhances the variability of Eurasian winter climate and thus increases the probability of an extreme Eurasian winter cooling trend.

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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #61
So you accept there has been a cooling trend now?
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #62
I'll let whatever strawman that question was direct to answer for itself.

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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #63
"To understand the drivers of this winter cooling trend"

It's a simple point.
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #64
People get confused and think the warm colors means it's warm.  It's not.  It's just not as cold.

"Warm" and "not as cold" are both expressions of relative temperature.

"To understand the drivers of this winter cooling trend"

Cooler than what?

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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #65
"To understand the drivers of this winter cooling trend"

Cooler than what?
Than the GMST, it's clearly stated in the paper.
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #66
I'll let whatever strawman that question was direct to answer for itself.
The questions about "the pause" as well as why the NH winter trend is cooling, are actual serious matters.  That both sides deny or try and use these issues for political hay (or whatever) isn't scientific.  Finding out why is.

In 2010, 2011, 2012 and even 2014 the alarmists denied there was a pause, or that the NH winter trend was negative, no matter what evidence came to light.  Strangely, some of the deniers/skeptics also denied there was any winter cooling trend, making Tamino and some of the deniers on the same side of the issue.

Using "alarmist" and "deniers" is just a shortcut for the two extremes.

 Alarmists = we are fucking doomed and we need to stop fossil fuels like 10 years ago or billions will die and shit

Denier =  no amount of pollution or burning of fossil fuels or deforestation will change the world in any way that is bad

I consider both extremes idiots, fuckheads and they also smell bad.  Just kidding, I have no idea about their body odor.

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #67
I'll let whatever strawman that question was direct to answer for itself.
The questions about "the pause" as well as why the NH winter trend is cooling, are actual serious matters.  That both sides deny or try and use these issues for political hay (or whatever) isn't scientific.  Finding out why is.

In 2010, 2011, 2012 and even 2014 the alarmists denied there was a pause, or that the NH winter trend was negative, no matter what evidence came to light.  Strangely, some of the deniers/skeptics also denied there was any winter cooling trend, making Tamino and some of the deniers on the same side of the issue.

Using "alarmist" and "deniers" is just a shortcut for the two extremes.

 Alarmists = we are fucking doomed and we need to stop fossil fuels like 10 years ago or billions will die and shit

Denier =  no amount of pollution or burning of fossil fuels or deforestation will change the world in any way that is bad

I consider both extremes idiots, fuckheads and they also smell bad.  Just kidding, I have no idea about their body odor.



the issue is still the same. You are trying to cherry pick narrowly tailored data sets to find something that fits your narrative. Saying one month in Greece was cold, or that northern hemisphere winter snowfall was higher than usual for one year, or that NH has some cold winters doesn't really mean much on it's own. It isn't "Greece January warming", it's GLOBAL warming. It's not "northern hemisphere winter precipitation change" it's GLOBAL climate change.

If we look at Tuesdays that are prime numbers during leap years, we might get some weird outlier, but that data set isn't generalizable. Neither are the examples you are giving. That's why every time you post one, I can reliably zoom out just a little bit and show you the larger warming trend.

Greece had a cold January? True, but the past year has been above average there, the past decade shows a warming trend, The hottest january on record was last january,

Northern hemisphere snowfall was up? True, but sea ice, glaciers, and ice sheets generally are all down and temperature is up.

New hampshire winter temperatures are down? Actually this doesn't even appear to be true. http://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1112&context=carsey

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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #68
New hampshire winter temperatures are down? Actually this doesn't even appear to be true. http://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1112&context=carsey
Can't tell if humorous, or you actually don't understand NH = northern hemisphere
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #69
New hampshire winter temperatures are down? Actually this doesn't even appear to be true. http://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1112&context=carsey
Can't tell if humorous, or you actually don't understand NH = northern hemisphere

The more common abreviation for NH is New Hampshire, and given that you're prone to taking a small region and trying to argue that is has some sort of broader significance, I assumed you were doing so again.

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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #70
Bullshit.
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #71
"To understand the drivers of this winter cooling trend"

Cooler than what?
Than the GMST, it's clearly stated in the paper.
Reading is hard.
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #72
You lot are going to have trouble even feeding yourselves. The EU will make a mint out of this.

Great lettuce crisis is a taste of climate crop chaos to come

Quote
If there's one thing this can teach us, it's the extent to which climate change can wreak havoc on food grown for the world's wealthy. Europe is likely to see far more freak weather events of this sort, if global temperatures increase by 2 °C.


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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #73
Snow fell in the Sahara desert for 10 days this winter, a place that does see some snow in the high mountains, But not the kind of heavy and continuous snow that this winter brought, to the low dry desert.  The increase in cold and snow for boreal winters is not something global warming theory predicts, nor does it explain it.

This will not matter to the idiots who blindly believe everything is caused by global warming.  But of course they are blaming humans for the weather now, a very old thing, people have blamed weather on other people, or themselves, or an angry God, or something, for a very long time.

The very idea that it might be the sun is just too horrific for a global warmer to even consider. They just "know" it's all carbon dioxide, and it's your fault.

Now it's reached the point where the idiot thinks if the entire world stopped burning fuels (like, to stay alive and warm), the winters would become milder.  Of course 17 years ago the lack of snow was the clear signal of a warmer world, and back then they were blaming you for snow going away.  (and of course both the increasing fall and winter snow, as well as the decreasing spring and summer snow cover, both are from global warming)

It really does seem now, reading the fuckhead spench that drizzles out daily, that no matter what happens, it's because of human caused changes.

If it's the coldest ever, that's global warming.

If icebreakers become trapped in record unexpected sea ice, that's global warming.  (and if there was almost no sea ice, that would also be global warming)

And of course a warm winter is also "climate change", as is flooding, drought, rain, snow, ice, sleet, or the lack of precip. Stronger jet streams, weaker jet streams, colder winters, warmer winters, it's all climate change, because the fuckhead knows human caused changes are the reason for everything.

That the usual skeptics are staunch defenders of this mythos, that part is very fucking strange.

The very idea that the sun can influence climate seems to be something the global warmer finds revolting.
  • Last Edit: February 10, 2017, 05:44:56 AM by F X
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Re: Global warming is making for record cold
Reply #74
Interesting times.