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Topic: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data (Read 1626 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #25
#bothsides

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #26
I don't actually keep up with the massive piles of posts from both sides, but even so, the issue of colder winters (with more snow of course) is a bone of contention.  Alarmists either deny it is happening, or turn around and say it proves warming.

Deniers say it isn't happening, or that it is natural variability.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #27
Well, both sides are right on that one, because it's not happening. You could cherry-pick a given start date to show it happening when you first started getting obsessed with it in 2012 or so, but after the last few winters, it sure as hell isn't happening now. Unless you're talking about a one-year trend starting in 2016.

  • F X
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Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #28
Well, both sides are right on that one, because it's not happening.
What do you mean by "it"?


"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
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Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #29
Meanwhile, back in the actual real world ...
Extreme cold winters fuelled by jet stream and climate change
Quote
The research, carried out by an international team of scientists including the University of Sheffield, has found that warming in the Arctic may be intensifying the effects of the jet stream's position, which in the winter can cause extreme cold weather, such as the winter of 2014/15 which saw record snowfall levels in New York.

Scientists previously had two schools of thought. One group believe that natural variability in the jet stream's position has caused the recent severe cold winter weather seen in places such as the Eastern United States and the UK. The other camp includes scientists who are finding possible connections between the warming of the Arctic - such as melting sea ice, warming air temperatures, and rising sea surface temperatures - and the emerging pattern of severe cold winter weather.

More intense winters (and their increased frequency) are a new phenomenon courtesy of a warming Arctic.

Super-cold winters in the UK and US are due to Arctic warming

And of course the extreme (and record) cold is hand in hand with record amounts of snow, because that is exactly what the data and scientific knowledge of weather both predicts, and explains.  Despite what any idiot tries to tell you otherwise.

The areas that should experience more snow because the oceans are warmer, like Greenland, high mountains, and maybe Antarctica, those regions we expect to see more snow when the oceans are warmer.  But that isn't what the studies are about.  Blue Hill is a good proxy for Boston climate change, because of it's location, and it's careful data gathering.

And of course it shows exactly what we know is reality.  As winters trend colder, snow amounts trend up.

  • Last Edit: September 29, 2017, 03:38:23 PM by F X
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #30
Actual scientist know that mid latitude NH winters have been getting colder (not the arctic for the most part) , and they are in different camps.
 
Quote
Scientists have been divided over the cause of recent cold winters. One camp believes they are merely the result of natural jet stream variability, but the other is convinced there is a connection with global warming.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2110499-super-cold-winters-in-the-uk-and-us-are-due-to-arctic-warming/

There is a third group, the solar physics group, and they think it's the sun causing it.  No real scientists ignores the data, which clearly shows the NH winters have been trending colder.  With more snow.

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
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Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #31
Blue Hill is a good example of how actual real data, not adjusted fake data, can tell us something about the real world.

Of course it matches (almost perfectly) the rest of the world,(the areas that also show the colder winters, with increasing snow), which is main reason we can know the data is high quality.

Don't be an idiot and think every last location is experiencing colder winters, because that isn't what anyone is saying. 
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #32
Well, both sides are right on that one, because it's not happening.
What do you mean by "it"?



I mean
colder winters (with more snow of course).
Of course. And I mean that as a global average of course. Of course you will always find regional variations in any global pattern.

  • F X
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Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #33
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #34
Actual scientist know that mid latitude NH winters have been getting colder (not the arctic for the most part) , and they are in different camps.
 
Quote
Scientists have been divided over the cause of recent cold winters. One camp believes they are merely the result of natural jet stream variability, but the other is convinced there is a connection with global warming.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2110499-super-cold-winters-in-the-uk-and-us-are-due-to-arctic-warming/

There is a third group, the solar physics group, and they think it's the sun causing it.  No real scientists ignores the data, which clearly shows the NH winters have been trending colder.  With more snow.
The mechanism by which the sun influences climate is becoming clear.  It might just be that an increasing greenhouse effect and a quiet sun are fighting it out for who is going to dominate.

If a big stratovolcano goes off then both will bow before the power of the earth itself.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #35
Blue Hill matches the other quality stations for January trends

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #36
The recent papers blaming the NH cooling trends on various reasons, have a real problem when you look at the bigger picture.

For example.  The "blame the polar vortex" reason for south east US winter cooling does not explain why regions outside that region also see a Jan trend that shows no global warming.



"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #37
The Blue Hill data is one of those rare stations that isn't that adjusted (by NOAA or NASA), because they have been careful and scientific and even more importantly, the data shows long term annual warming, with out the need to adjust the past.
Well it seems I was wrong about this.  I know, I know, it's rare, but sometimes I am wrong.





It seems they just can't help themselves, or maybe the computers did it, who the fuck can know?

The extensive research Blue Hill has done with the data does show how the new electronic sensors bias the data, but it makes the daytime high higher, not lower.  Because the electronic sensors will record very brief transient highs, the ASOS data records a brief warm event as the daily high, which means the Tmax data from the new equipment has a warm bias, which of course makes the daily mean higher.

So the data should be adjusted down, but that is not what they do.  Blue Hill uses both the original equipment and the new sensors, and compares the results. The true believer could care less, but in science belief isn't what really matters.


"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #38
I haven't worn a coat once yet this year.  Unheard of.  Should I invest in arctic wear, based on FX's analysis?  And ignore the warnings of a hellacious fire season to come, thanks to warm dry weather.  Or is he simply a fucktard who lives to argue, mothers holding their babies and all?
  • Last Edit: February 25, 2018, 10:02:24 PM by Dean W

Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #39

Where are you getting these graphs from? This doesn't even match what Blue Hill reports on its own website:

http://bluehill.org/observatory/2013/05/2012-mean-temperatures/
2012 January mean according to Blue Hill's website: 31.2. Your graph has it below 31.

http://bluehill.org/observatory/2013/08/2013-mean-temperatures/
2013: 29.5. It's below 29 on your graph.

2014: 24.8. It's below 24 on your graph.

From 2012 on, your graph pretty consistently lists temperatures lower than those the Blue Hill website lists.

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Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #40

The extensive research Blue Hill has done with the data does show how the new electronic sensors bias the data, but it makes the daytime high higher, not lower.  Because the electronic sensors will record very brief transient highs, the ASOS data records a brief warm event as the daily high, which means the Tmax data from the new equipment has a warm bias, which of course makes the daily mean higher.

Only records transient highs, eh? 

Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #41
The NOAA values are actually pretty close to the ones on Blue Hill's website. Some are slightly higher, some are slightly lower. Examples:
2012
Blue Hill: 31.2
NOAA: 31.5
Up 0.3

2013
Blue Hill: 29.5
NOAA: 29.2
Down 0.3

2014
Blue Hill: 24.8
NOAA: 24.7
Down 0.1

Overall, it looks like NOAA's numbers are actually closer to those listed on the Blue Hill website than the ones on FX's graph are. Still wondering where those are from.

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #42
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #43
The Blue Hill data is GHCND:USC00190736


https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USC00190736/detail

Which "Blue Hill data" are you saying that is? The January mean temperatures listed on that unsourced graph you posted? Are you saying they came from that link? If so, I'm not seeing it.

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #44
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #45
Is your graph in there somewhere? Is the data that produces your graph in there somewhere? If so, is there a more direct link to it?

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #46
If so, is there a more direct link to it?
No graphs anywhere, you have to make your own.

 Read the readme.txt

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/readme.txt
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #47
Okay, let's take it as read that that's what you did. What might explain the difference between the values on the graph and the ones reported on Blue Hill's website?

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #48
Okay, let's take it as read that that's what you did. What might explain the difference between the values on the graph and the ones reported on Blue Hill's website?
That's a damn fine question actually.

But here is something I have found using the actual data.  It doesn't matter much that they adjust the data (before showing it to the public and such), because they can't actually change the readings from the observer stations.  That's actually a crime, to alter official government data.

Using the actual data clearly shows that stations show the same trends, even when separated by hundreds of miles.  Time of observation bias, instrument changes, none of actually changes the long term trends, which show up clearly.  The altered data however, does not show the natural climate cycles, and often bears no relationship with reality at times.  It's a main reason for knowing it's nonsense.

The PRISM group does alter some locations but that data still shows climate cycles, as well as the UHI effect.  Which you would expect to show up in unaltered actual data.  Chicago stations show a completely different story than the USCRN stations around it.

And the USCRN also show that many of the quality GHCN stations actually are measuring the temperature, precip and snowfall quite well.  Which is why so many of them show the exact same long term trends.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data
Reply #49
Okay, let's take it as read that that's what you did. What might explain the difference between the values on the graph and the ones reported on Blue Hill's website?
That's a damn fine question actually.
Do you have any ideas? My first guess would be that they're calculated differently. Monthly average isn't raw data. It has to be calculated from the daily measurements. What was your method for doing that? Is it the same as NOAA's?