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Topic: official 2018 US midterm election thread (Read 1010 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
official 2018 US midterm election thread
yes, it's still 18 months away, but we do have some tentative early evidence of how it will go

no, not the polls.  they may look good for the democrats atm, but they really are meaningless this far out.

I'm talking about the lay of the land:  retirements, recruitments, redistricting, and which offices are up for election. 

there is a self-fulfilling dynamic that takes place with recruitments in particular.  if it is perceived that one party is likely to do well, then they will be better able to recruit the best candidates for various offices.  if the party isn't expected to do well, the best people will not want to waste time and reputation on a losing race, and the party will be stuck with non-name losers.  well, the perception so far this cycle is that the democrats will probably do at least ok, if not well.  and, accordingly, they are currently crushing the gop at the recruitments game.

senate

the gop enters this cycle with its senate majority probably safe, because the democrats are defending a large number of vulnerable seats, compared with only 1 or 2 vulnerable republicans.  however, the gop has largely failed to recruit good candidates to run against the vulnerable democrats.  that will probably translate into a loss of some seats for them.  we've seen time and again with senate races that the candidates matter, and a shitty one can very easily blow a winnable race.  it's not just about the letter next to their name.

house

the republicans start with a bigger majority in this chamber, percentagewise.  however, they don't have the same structural advantage they have in the senate, since all house seats are up for election.  the democrats are killing them in recruitments here, like in the senate.  the gop has 8 retirements so far, to the democrats' 4 (though it looks like only one of each is a competitive district).  lastly, the courts have recently struck down three republican gerrymanders, in wisconsin, texas, and alabama.  don't know the details, but if compliant maps are drawn in time, that could lead to a gain of another seat or two.

both

lastly, there is the historic tendency for the party not in the white house to gain seats during the midterms.  it is not a hard rule; it's had exceptions.  and it seems to benefit republicans more than democrats (gop voters are better about still showing up).  moreover as a line of evidence, it is not totally independent of the points above, and is somewhat already reflected in them.  that said, it still bolsters the case.

in conclusion, the democrats are headed for catastrophic losses in both the house and the senate, not to mention governors' mansions and state legislatures.  guapo's odds: 100%

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #1
yeah dems are gonna get trounced. dark days ahead.

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #2
I don't think you actually read his post

  • ToThePoint
  • search & destroy
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #3
One of the top races on the watch list:
US Senate Senate election in Texas  (voting held on Nov 6, 2018)
 
Declared candidates:
Incumbent Republican US Senator Ted Cruz running for re-election to a 2nd term
vs
Democratic Representative (Texas 16th congressional district) Beto O'Rourke is seeking his party's nomination

Beto may not win, but I'm looking forward to damage the internet will inflict on Cruz.
"This is your life and it's ending one minute at a time."

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #4
we've seen time and again with senate races that the candidates matter, and a shitty one can very easily blow a winnable race.  it's not just about the letter next to their name.

:sadyes:

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #5
I don't think you actually read his post

I just read his "in conclusion" but it doesn't matter. Dems are getting trounced.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #6
another republican gerrymander struck down.  this time in NC.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/05/22/supreme-court-strikes-down-north-carolina-maps-congress/100855582/

eta:  NC's congressional delegation is 10/13 republican, despite the state being close to 50-50.  a redrawing could take 3 or 4 seats away from the gop (that they didn't deserve...).  keep in mind, the redrawing will happen with a democratic governor involved now.  you know, the guy the gop legislature keeps trying to strip of his power because they are crybabies.
  • Last Edit: May 22, 2017, 09:20:50 AM by el jefe

  • ksen
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #7
Um, guys?

In Most Expensive House Race Ever, Ossoff Takes the Lead

Quote
There has been very limited public polling since the primary, but a new Survey USA poll shows Ossoff up 51-44 among likely voters.

I don't know what Survey USA's reputation is but still . . .

  • RAFH
  • Have a life, already.
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #8
Um, guys?

In Most Expensive House Race Ever, Ossoff Takes the Lead

Quote
There has been very limited public polling since the primary, but a new Survey USA poll shows Ossoff up 51-44 among likely voters.

I don't know what Survey USA's reputation is but still . . .
With but a few examples. the majority always wins. Eventually.
The issue is more damage control than winning.
Are we there yet?

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #9

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #10
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/05/24/greg-gianforte-fox-news-team-witnesses-gop-house-candidate-body-slam-reporter.html

fox news crew saw the whole thing and is reporting it.  their report makes gianforte look even worse than jacobs' own.  jacobs didn't mention getting punched.

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #11
Unreal
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #12
Remember the shirts that said "Montana, at least the cows are sane" ?
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

  • ToThePoint
  • search & destroy
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #13
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/05/24/greg-gianforte-fox-news-team-witnesses-gop-house-candidate-body-slam-reporter.html

fox news crew saw the whole thing and is reporting it.  their report makes gianforte look even worse than jacobs' own.  jacobs didn't mention getting punched.

Charged with misdemeanor assault.
"This is your life and it's ending one minute at a time."

  • MikeS
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #14
If Gianforte wins I bet he gets a whip position quickly.

  • ToThePoint
  • search & destroy
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #15
Well, this is abnormal behavior and I suppose there's always a first time.
But Greg Gianforte is no kid; he's in his mid-fifties.
In spite of his conservative/Christian background, I suspect he may have knocked his wife and/or 4 kids around in the past. Or maybe he was hyped-up on go-pills.

eta: I'm betting half my chips there's some hidden history of domestic violence in Gianforte's background.

  • Last Edit: May 24, 2017, 11:24:00 PM by ToThePoint
"This is your life and it's ending one minute at a time."

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #16
this bodyslam will single-handedly win him the election.

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #17
Does anyone doubt there is a connection between this incident*, and the president of the United States declaring the press "the enemy of the American people", and the multiple statements made during his campaign rallies encouraging his followers to get physical with the opposition?

*And when I say "this incident", I don't just mean Gianforte's lack of impulse control; I include the probable fact - as Mr. Harambe suggests - that there will be lots of public support for it.
"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #18
Does anyone doubt there is a connection between this incident*, and the president of the United States declaring the press "the enemy of the American people", and the multiple statements made during his campaign rallies encouraging his followers to get physical with the opposition?

*And when I say "this incident", I don't just mean Gianforte's lack of impulse control; I include the probable fact - as Mr. Harambe suggests - that there will be lots of public support for it.
I assume it's part of the same sentiment.  whether there's a causal arrow connecting trump's statements to this act is hard to say.  but I think it's likely they are part of the same causal web of angry old white guys repeating to each other that the press is an anti-American conspiracy, and getting themselves really worked up about it.


  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #20
well, even if he wins, maybe he'll be unable to serve because he is in jail.  so the gop still loses a seat, even if the democrats don't gain it.

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #21
then we just get another special election  :stopper:

  • fredbear
  • Militantly Confused
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #22
Free Republic folks seem to think on balance that it will get him more votes. The lying liberal media need to be taught a lesson, doncha know.
"...without considering any evidence at all - that my views are more likely - on average - to be correct.  Because the mainstream is almost always wrong" - Dave Hawkins

  • ToThePoint
  • search & destroy
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #23
So apparently there is a little history between Gianforte and the reporter who he sucker-punched.

Ben Jacobs is the same reporter who wrote a story in The Guardian regarding Gianforte's financial ties to U.S. sanctioned Russian companies:

Quote
This story was originally published on 28 April 2017

A Republican congressional candidate has financial ties to a number of Russian companies that have been sanctioned by the US, the Guardian has learned.

Greg Gianforte, who is the GOP standard bearer in the upcoming special election in Montana, owns just under $250,000 in shares in two index funds that are invested in the Russian economy to match its overall performance.

According to a financial disclosure filed with the clerk of the House of Representatives, the Montana tech mogul owns almost $150,000 worth of shares in VanEck Vectors Russia ETF and $92,400 in the IShares MSCF Russia ETF fund. Both are indexed to the Russian equities market and have significant holdings in companies such as Gazprom and Rosneft that came under US sanctions in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of the Crimea.

read more at theguardian.com
"This is your life and it's ending one minute at a time."

  • ksen
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #24
I'm not sure it's entirely fair to hold a guy accountable for individual company share an index fund he's invested in is holding.

That seems a little bit different than him consciously deciding to buy share in those companies in particular.