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Topic: official 2018 US midterm election thread (Read 1009 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #25
I'm not sure it's entirely fair to hold a guy accountable for individual company share an index fund he's invested in is holding.

That seems a little bit different than him consciously deciding to buy share in those companies in particular.
I agree.  in fact, I'd say it's a complete non-story.

eta: if your only holding in a company is through a broadly diversified mutual fund, that isn't a substantial interest.  any movements in the company's stock price are going to be totally diluted to the point where you essentially don't feel them.  ...   also you're probably not going to have a big enough stake in any one company to have significant voting rights, etc.
  • Last Edit: May 25, 2017, 08:54:33 AM by el jefe

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #26
I'm not sure it's entirely fair to hold a guy accountable for individual company share an index fund he's invested in is holding.

That seems a little bit different than him consciously deciding to buy share in those companies in particular.

It's not "fair" but who gives a shit? Hammering people politically with made-up bullshit is how the GOP has come to dominate state and federal governments.

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #27
I'm not sure it's entirely fair to hold a guy accountable for individual company share an index fund he's invested in is holding.
I'm not quite sure how to parse that sentence.
Quote
That seems a little bit different than him consciously deciding to buy share in those companies in particular.
VanEck Vectors Russia ETF is 100% Russian enterprises, so it's fair to say he's banking on the performance of the Russian economy.

Sberbank -  which is under the post-Crimea U.S. sanctions  - constitutes 8.48% of its assets. Gazprom another 7.45%, Rosneft another 4.26%. IShares MSCF Russia is 10.01% Sberbank, 9.94% Gazprom, and the rest is mostly Russian oil and gas concerns.

So, yeah it is a little bit different from consciously buying stock in those companies.
But not completely different.

Perhaps not the proverbial "getting caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy" kind of story, but not a non-story, IMHO.
"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #28
I'm not sure it's entirely fair to hold a guy accountable for individual company share an index fund he's invested in is holding.

That seems a little bit different than him consciously deciding to buy share in those companies in particular.

It's not "fair" but who gives a shit? Hammering people politically with made-up bullshit is how the GOP has come to dominate state and federal governments.
this is the correct attitude.

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #29
As long as you can keep actual reality/detailed analysis and "political reality" separate in your head so you don't end up down the rabbit hole of stupid yourself, there's no reason not to tar conservatives with every possible thing no matter how tenuous.

The dumbasses who shouted "DEATH PANELS!" and "RAMMED DOWN OUR THROATS!" are running the whole show now, and they fully believe in their own stupidity. Decorum is dead and isn't going to come back by liberals unilaterally disarming.

  • ToThePoint
  • search & destroy
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #30
I'm not sure it's entirely fair to hold a guy accountable for individual company share an index fund he's invested in is holding.

That seems a little bit different than him consciously deciding to buy share in those companies in particular.

It's not "fair" but who gives a shit? Hammering people politically with made-up bullshit is how the GOP has come to dominate state and federal governments.
this is the correct attitude.

In any case, reporter Ben Jacobs clearly burrowed under Gianforte's skin with his close scrutiny reporting. Enough to get body-slammed.
"This is your life and it's ending one minute at a time."

  • ksen
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #31
I'm not sure it's entirely fair to hold a guy accountable for individual company share an index fund he's invested in is holding.

That seems a little bit different than him consciously deciding to buy share in those companies in particular.

It's not "fair" but who gives a shit? Hammering people politically with made-up bullshit is how the GOP has come to dominate state and federal governments.
You make a good point.

Carry on.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #32
I'm not sure it's entirely fair to hold a guy accountable for individual company share an index fund he's invested in is holding.
I'm not quite sure how to parse that sentence.
Quote
That seems a little bit different than him consciously deciding to buy share in those companies in particular.
VanEck Vectors Russia ETF is 100% Russian enterprises, so it's fair to say he's banking on the performance of the Russian economy.

Sberbank -  which is under the post-Crimea U.S. sanctions  - constitutes 8.48% of its assets. Gazprom another 7.45%, Rosneft another 4.26%. IShares MSCF Russia is 10.01% Sberbank, 9.94% Gazprom, and the rest is mostly Russian oil and gas concerns.

So, yeah it is a little bit different from consciously buying stock in those companies.
But not completely different.

Perhaps not the proverbial "getting caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy" kind of story, but not a non-story, IMHO.

this is a fair point that I came back to post.  having a large holding of stock in russian companies overall does give him a stake in the performance of the russian economy, which may raise significant conflicts of interest, since as a congressman he would be in a position to make decisions affecting the russian economy in general.  for example, whether or not to keep sanctions on them comes to mind.

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #33
GIANFORTE HAS INVESTMENT TIES TO ISIS

that's all that matters for widespread communication. getting bogged down in details or explanations means losing votes.

  • ToThePoint
  • search & destroy
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #34
Billings Gazette Editorial Board pulls endorsement of Gianforte

Quote
Link to full statement

We're at a loss for words.

And as people who wrangle words on a minute-by-minute basis, that doesn't happen often.

What happens even less -- hopefully never again -- is a Montana candidate assaulting a reporter. While there are still questions left unanswered about GOP House hopeful Greg Gianforte's altercation with Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs, eyewitness accounts, law enforcement investigations and records are all shocking, disturbing and without precedent.

That's why The Billings Gazette editorial board is also doing something without precedent:  We're rescinding our editorial endorsement of Greg Gianforte.

Although we're greatly troubled by this action against a member of the media who was just doing his job, to make this an issue of media intrusion or even a passionate defense of the role of a free press during an election would be to miss the point.

If what was heard on tape and described by eye-witnesses is accurate, the incident in Bozeman is nothing short of assault. We wouldn't condone it if it happened on the street. We wouldn't condone it if it happened in a home or even a late-night bar fight. And we couldn't accept it from a man who is running to become Montana's lone Congressional representative.

We will not stand by that kind of violence, period.

We previously supported Gianforte because he said he was ready to listen, to compromise, to take the tough questions. Everything he said was obliterated by his surprising actions that were recorded and witnessed Wednesday. We simply cannot trust him. Because trust -- not agreement -- is essential in the role of representative, we cannot stand by him.

While we clearly made a poor choice in our original endorsement, an even bigger mistake would have been to stand by it, or say nothing even though this editorial appears on Election Day and may open us to criticism of trying to unduly influence the outcome.

We'd point out that all the other questionable interactions Gianforte had with reporters, including one case where he joked about ganging up on a reporter, must now be seen through a much more sinister lens. What he passed off as a joke at the time now becomes much more serious.

To the voters who have not voted yet, we simply urge you to evaluate each candidate very carefully and make the best choice.

To those who have voted: Unfortunately, Montana does not allow those who voted early to reconsider and vote again. We're one of the few states that does not. This would seem to be the best reason we should urge our state leaders to change that law.

We understand that not all the facts about the case have come out, and that Gianforte should be allowed due process. But the eye-witness accounts and the recordings have stunned us. And a citation by the Gallatin County Sheriff's Office makes this more than a misunderstanding that can be spun by campaign staff.

We also hope that other longer-term lessons can be realized from this bizarre, deplorable scuffle.

First, we hope that Republican party members and leaders call this for what it appears to be, an inexcusable act. We hope that partisan politics has not eroded our decency to the point where leaders and supporters feel the need to defend the indefensible.

Speaking of which, the Gianforte campaign should be appalled by its statement that would seem to justify the fight when it said the Bozeman Republican had tussled with a "liberal journalist." How would the campaign have known the reporter's political beliefs? And, is it suggesting that it's acceptable to put your hands on a reporter if you believe their political views are different from yours?

We also hope that this incident will cause us to take a long look in the mirror and a few deep breaths. This incident is not Montana. It's not America. It's not who we are, and attacking -- literally -- those with whom we disagree cannot be justified, tolerated or explained away. We must adopt zero tolerance for such behavior if freedom of expression means anything.

After voting, we'd suggest that residents in and around Billings attend the gathering at the Billings Public Library, "Civility in America" from 6:30 to 8 p.m. Thursday. It appears that we all need a refresher course on it.

We believe that you cannot love America, love the Constitution, talk about the importance of a free press and then pummel a reporter.

Beyond that, if Gianforte didn't have the good and common sense to simply walk away from questions he didn't like, we cannot believe he's going to be able to make much more difficult, complex decisions when he's in Congress.
In no way would we want our readers or our community to believe we stood behind what appears to be an assault or an attack.

We do not, and we do not endorse Gianforte.
"This is your life and it's ending one minute at a time."

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #35
Gianforte is still going to win  :smith:

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #36
betting markets had quist's odds jump from ~20 to ~40 on this news.  seems to be fading back into the 30s now. 

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #37
on a positive note, however, they now favor ossoff 2:1 over handel

  • ksen
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #38
Billings Gazette Editorial Board pulls endorsement of Gianforte

Quote
Link to full statement

More like Billings Gazette Editorial Board body slams Gianforte.

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #39
betting markets are just idiots making guesses, no smarter than us

  • linus
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #40
elections too

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #41
GIANFORTE HAS INVESTMENT TIES TO ISIS

that's all that matters for widespread communication. getting bogged down in details or explanations means losing votes.
He's also - like most ISIS members I assume - a young earth creationist.

But at this point, I guess losing (or gaining) votes is kind of moot.
"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #42
betting markets are just idiots making guesses, no smarter than us
I take them less seriously than I used to, because they've had several big misses (trump, brexit, nfib v sebelius), but I don't think they're total garbage. 

if it's something that depends on unknown decision-making inside someone's head (john roberts, still undecided or marginal voters the day before a close vote), obviously there's no way for that information to get out into the public and be used by bettors.

but with something like the special election that is now underway, there are, e.g., guys who are scouring local reports to get a sense of whether turnout in various areas is higher or lower than expected, and/or looking closely at how voters have responded in the past to politicians doing stuff like hitting reporters, etc.  and they are bidding the market up and down accordingly.  so any information that's out there gets sucked into the market and (admittedly messily) reflected in it.

so when the market says quist's odds are 35%, are they really 35%?  probably not.  but the fact that they have him under 50-50 is probably meaningful.  as is the fact that they have him far from 0, with a realistic shot.  and the fact that the market says his odds really did go *up* when the other guy attacked a reporter probably means something too.

I tend to read them almost qualitatively, as ballpark estimates.

  • Bilirubin
  • Ain't nothing ta fuck wit'
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #43
Does anyone doubt there is a connection between this incident*, and the president of the United States declaring the press "the enemy of the American people", and the multiple statements made during his campaign rallies encouraging his followers to get physical with the opposition?

*And when I say "this incident", I don't just mean Gianforte's lack of impulse control; I include the probable fact - as Mr. Harambe suggests - that there will be lots of public support for it.
Don Lemon certainly doesn't

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #44
needs appropriate context for those like me who don't know who don lemon is or what he said

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/05/25/don_lemon_vs_guest_gop_candidate_gianforte_attacked_reporter_because_of_trump.html
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #45
Republicans rebuke but stand by Montana GOP candidate charged with assault

I think, after the Access Hollywood tape, they've got this "rebuke but stand by" routine down cold.
"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #46
we recognize the need to say something negative about his actions, but want to clarify that this statement has no meaning whatsoever

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #47
Looking like gianforte will win by mid single digits. Another "good sign" for Democrats.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #48
looks slightly better than the polls which had the republican winning by ~10. 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/house/mt/2017_montana_atlarge_district_special_election_gianforte_vs_quist-6208.html

but yeah, the upset people were hoping for isn't materializing
  • Last Edit: May 25, 2017, 08:45:16 PM by el jefe

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #49
the district (montana-at-large) has a pvi of r+11.  if quist keeps it in single digits, beats the spread.

silver says the democrats need to beat the spread by an average of about 4 points next fall to retake the house.