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Topic: official 2018 US midterm election thread (Read 1011 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #50
Watching that dude's victory speech right now. I could take him. Maybe I will go reporter on his ass.
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #51

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #52
file under "things that won't matter in 2018 because of voter suppression"

  • ksen
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #53
Gotta admit I was really hoping for a win here.  I have to remind myself that these have been in heavily republican districts so coming this close is still good news for 2018.

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #54
The polling for this was consistently +7-9 R and had Gianforte over 50%. It was always going to be a longshot.

As for voter suppression, at least so far, the courts haven't been putting up with that. We'll see how it goes.

  • JonF
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #55
Well, this is abnormal behavior and I suppose there's always a first time.
But Greg Gianforte is no kid; he's in his mid-fifties.
He's just getting started.  He's one of those that believe nobody should retire because Noah didn't.

Gianforte: Retirement is Not in the Bible
"I would never consider my evaluation of his work to be fair minded unless I had actually read his own words." - Dave Hawkins

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #56
As for voter suppression, at least so far, the courts haven't been putting up with that. We'll see how it goes.

Courts can rule all they want but it requires enforcement. Lawsuits afterwards don't really change anything about who does and does not take elected office.

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #57
the most recent court rulings were throwing out gerrymandered districts for racial reasons. that's not something that can be ignored or violated like other injunctions or rulings against other crappy voter suppression efforts.

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #58
Sure but implementation of new non-gerrymandered districts can take time and even in adjusted districts, the repubs can simply put fewer election sites in black communities (they've done this with some success already in other states). There are a ton of ways to influence voter turnout and voting accessibility that will be difficult if not impossible to respond to before the fact, and you can bet they'll pull out all the stops in the midterms.

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #59
ok, everything is bad forever then

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #60
Burgerfurry, I have a suggestion for something you can ignore

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #61
I'm not optimistic. I'm really not optimistic.

  • ksen
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #62
I'm not optimistic. I'm really not optimistic.

Why not?

Even with all their current shenanigans the repubs only won the electoral college by around 80,000 votes.

I'm very optimistic that the Trump presidency has given the Left a huge wake up call to get off their asses and vote.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #63
I'm not optimistic. I'm really not optimistic.

Why not?

Even with all their current shenanigans the repubs only won the electoral college by around 80,000 votes.

I'm very optimistic that the Trump presidency has given the Left a huge wake up call to get off their asses and vote.
I am too

especially for any college age bernie bros who stayed home or voted third party because clinton's "just as bad!", and are now having their first experience with "oh wow, this republican guy really is worse.  maybe I should have done something to stop him."

they're not old enough to remember Nader and all that.  I guess kids are doomed to repeat our mistakes rather than listening to us and avoiding them.  *smh wistfully*

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #64
i knew plenty of people like that who certainly remembered 2001.

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #65
yeah man all those woke peeps realized "my bad" and Kerry won by a fucking landslide in 2004

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #66
lol

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #67
Yeah basically my feeling is that sitting here and saying "it's unfathomable that the republicans will win in 2018 and 2020" is just setting yourself up for failure. It's fathomable. It is probably likely given what we know about republican efforts to disenfranchise and terrorize minority voters. Everyone is pointing to Nixon and saying "well, look, that led to an impeachment" but despite that being a serious effort to undermine American democracy, most of the politicians at the time still had some modicum of decency, and Nixon was trying to hide his misdeeds rather than bully the government into complicity.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #68
bush got an absurd boost with everyone for happening to have been president on 9/11, to like literally 80 or 90% approval, and that hadn't faded by November 2004. 

also, everyone was caught off guard by the rise in popularity of a previously obscure cable news network that was "reporting" that George Bush was awesome and democrats support the terrorists, along with brazenly lying about wmds.  one could have previously assumed that when republican politicians fuck up, it would cost them points even with republican voters.  suddenly you couldn't count on that anymore.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #69
and pretty sure these Nader voters really did mostly shift to kerry

  • ravenscape
  • Administrator
  • Triggered
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #70
If 2018 sucks for Democrats, I'm out.  I'll vote as an expat, but life is too goddamn short to spend living through the glory years of the alt-reich.

Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #71
bush got an absurd boost with everyone for happening to have been president on 9/11, to like literally 80 or 90% approval, and that hadn't faded by November 2004.

You're assuming here that either a conspicuous terrorist attack will not happen on US soil in the next 18 months or that we won't have a Reichstag fire.

Quote
also, everyone was caught off guard by the rise in popularity of a previously obscure cable news network that was "reporting" that George Bush was awesome and democrats support the terrorists, along with brazenly lying about wmds.  one could have previously assumed that when republican politicians fuck up, it would cost them points even with republican voters.  suddenly you couldn't count on that anymore.

If you don't think we're not going to have a sudden surge of weaponized pro-admin news media in the next 18 months, you're crazy.

  • ksen
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #72
Black Voters Aren't Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party

Quote
But the Georgia 6 April primary was a continuation of some 2016 turnout trends too -- trends that should worry Democrats. In 2016, turnout among whites was up across the country, and in highly educated areas like the 6th District in the suburbs of Atlanta. This redounded to Democrats' advantage. At the same time, black turnout was down precipitously, from 66 percent in 2012 to 59 percent in 2016. This black-white turnout gap continued in the first round of Georgia's special election, where the Democrats got impressive turnout levels from all races and ethnicities -- except African-Americans.

Lower black turnout in 2016 might be explained as a reversion to the mean after that group's historic turnout for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. It's possible that Clinton could never inspire black turnout the way the first African-American president could. But even if this shift is more of a return to the old status quo, Democrats will still have to grapple with these turnout levels going forward, and there are powerful lessons we can learn from the party's failure to raise or maintain previous black turnout levels in 2016. Painting Trump as a bigot did not motivate more African-Americans to vote, in 2016 or in the Georgia 6th. Hope and shared identity seem to be much more effective turnout motivators than fear.

  • Bilirubin
  • Ain't nothing ta fuck wit'
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #73
Black Voters Aren't Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party

Quote
But the Georgia 6 April primary was a continuation of some 2016 turnout trends too -- trends that should worry Democrats. In 2016, turnout among whites was up across the country, and in highly educated areas like the 6th District in the suburbs of Atlanta. This redounded to Democrats' advantage. At the same time, black turnout was down precipitously, from 66 percent in 2012 to 59 percent in 2016. This black-white turnout gap continued in the first round of Georgia's special election, where the Democrats got impressive turnout levels from all races and ethnicities -- except African-Americans.

Lower black turnout in 2016 might be explained as a reversion to the mean after that group's historic turnout for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. It's possible that Clinton could never inspire black turnout the way the first African-American president could. But even if this shift is more of a return to the old status quo, Democrats will still have to grapple with these turnout levels going forward, and there are powerful lessons we can learn from the party's failure to raise or maintain previous black turnout levels in 2016. Painting Trump as a bigot did not motivate more African-Americans to vote, in 2016 or in the Georgia 6th. Hope and shared identity seem to be much more effective turnout motivators than fear.
This matches my unofficial polling results* of political trinket tourist gifts sold in a kiosk at Reagan International Airport, where the African American who sold me my sweet hot pink Hillary! shot glass said she was not going to vote, because Obama was her President.







*Sample size=1

  • borealis
  • Administrator
Re: official 2018 US midterm election thread
Reply #74
"It's time to bust the myth:most Trump voters were not working class*

*As defined in part by income
Quote
Observers have often used the education gap to conjure images of poor people flocking to Trump, but the truth is, many of the people without college degrees who voted for Trump were from middle- and high-income households. That's the basic problem with using education to measure the working class.

In short, the narrative that attributes Trump's victory to a "coalition of mostly blue-collar white and working-class voters" just doesn't square with the 2016 election data. According to the election study, white non-Hispanic voters without college degrees making below the median household income made up only 25 percent of Trump voters. That's a far cry from the working-class-fueled victory many journalists have imagined.

...

A recent National Review article about Trump's alleged support among the working class bordered on a call to arms against the less fortunate, saying that, "The white American underclass is in thrall to a vicious, selfish culture whose main products are misery and used heroin needles. Donald Trump's speeches make them feel good. So does OxyContin" and that "the truth about these dysfunctional downscale communities is that they deserve to die."
This kind of stereotyping and scapegoating is a dismaying consequence of the narrative that working-class Americans swept Trump into the White House. It's time to let go of that narrative.
What deserves to die isn't America's working-class communities. It's the myth that they're the reason Trump was elected.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/05/its-time-to-bust-the-myth-most-trump-voters-were-not-working-class/