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  • You aint got eight telescopes and a house in Monterey. I aint got a healthy heart. We all have our crosses to bear.

Topic: 2020 US Presidential Election (Read 734 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • Bilirubin
  • Ain't nothing ta fuck wit'
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #26
Quote
President Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and three Democratic senators in a new poll from a Democratic firm testing possible 2020 matchups.

The survey of registered voters, conducted by Public Policy Polling, found Trump trailing by wide margins against Sanders -- 52 percent to 39 percent -- and Biden -- 54 percent to 39 percent.

The poll also found Trump losing in hypothetical matchups against Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), although by smaller margins.

Trump trails Warren by 42 percent to 49 percent, Booker by 40 percent to 45 percent and Harris by 40 percent to 41 percent.

In a hypothetical race against Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Trump would see a tie, 40 percent to 40 percent.
The poll surveyed 836 registered voters between July 14 and 17 and has a plus or minus 3.4 percent margin of error.

Who cares. What about The Rock?
He's a Republican and Canadian, although the latter also did not stop Ted Cruiz so vOv

Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #27

Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #28
I don't know if I can boost for Bernie again this time around.  It was too exhausting.  I might get on board with Biden if he decides to run, though he would be nearly 80 fuckin years old.

Jimmy Carter was born Oct 01, 1924 (age 92)
Ronald Reagan lived Feb 06, 1911 - Jun 05, 2004 (age 93)
George H. W. Bush was born Jun 12, 1924 (age 93)
That's my grandparent's generation.

Bill Clinton was born Aug 19, 1946 (age 70)
Hillary Clinton was born Oct 26, 1947 (age 69)
Bernie Sanders was born Sep 08, 1941 (age 75)
Joe Biden was born Nov 20, 1942 (age 74)
Donald Trump was born Jun 14, 1946 (age 71)
That's my parent's generation.

Barack Obama was born Aug 04, 1961 (age 56)
Kamala Harris was born Oct 20, 1964 (age 52)
Cory Booker was born Apr 27, 1969 (age 48)
That's my generation.

At some point, if you're lucky, you have to take the car keys away from Mom or Dad.  We didn't do that in 2016, and now Dad's about to drive the Surburban into a ditch.

Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #29
When was the last time the incumbent pres was 'primaried', and what are guapo's odds that'll happen to the trumpster fire?

I don't even remember the last time an incumbent president really even had to run in the primary with any real effort.

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #30
When was the last time the incumbent pres was 'primaried', and what are guapo's odds that'll happen to the trumpster fire?

I don't even remember the last time an incumbent president really even had to run in the primary with any real effort.
Carter in 1980, I think.
"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #31
technically, I think there are always a few primary challengers, but they are nobodies like lyndon Larouche.  as far as significant primary challengers to a sitting president seeking renomination, I can't think of any since rfk and humphrey against lbj in 68.  iirc, reagan might have challenged ford in 76, but it's debatable whether that counts.

eta: whoops, forgot about ted kennedy challenging carter in 1980.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #32
fun fact:  according to jimmy carter, ted kennedy singlehandedly blew up his health care effort, because of political rivalry

Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #33
When was the last time the incumbent pres was 'primaried', and what are guapo's odds that'll happen to the trumpster fire?

I don't even remember the last time an incumbent president really even had to run in the primary with any real effort.

Obama almost lost the primary in WV in 2012 to an incarcerated man because wholly hell is WV racist

Long, strange trip for the state that originally started off by sticking with the Union over the treasonous slavers.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #34
to be empathetic, WV has been on the losing side of two recent things involving the democrats.  1) they have cared less and done less for unions, ever since bill clinton put them on this business-friendly trajectory.  2) obama actually took concrete action on climate change, which means putting the coal industry out of business.

whatever else might be said on these topics, they have screwed a lot of working class west virginians.  on #2, there isn't an easy solution, because calling global warming a hoax is not going to make it go away.  imo the solution is to make it up to the former coal workers with a ton of public assistance, including retraining, etc.

Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #35
at this point we either live under socialism or we live under water.

  • MikeS
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #36
whatever else might be said on these topics, they have screwed a lot of working class west virginians.  on #2, there isn't an easy solution, because calling global warming a hoax is not going to make it go away.  imo the solution is to make it up to the former coal workers with a ton of public assistance, including retraining, etc.
This a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario with West Virginia.  Although Bill Clinton, then Bush2 rolled back welfare for workers (lesser unemployment insurance, pushing retraining onto for profit schools, etc) coal started a resurgance with the energy price spike in the 2000s.  When the shit hit the fan in 2008/2009 economic crises, and natural gas fracking brought the energy market low, Obama was able to open up unemployment for greater than 1 year and went after the sham schools that were set up to indebt, not train, their students.  The Tea Party types started to roll back these benefits after 2010 such that when coal started declining the benefits on offer were not as generous.

But West Virginians didn't want any of it; they had been through boom and bust cycles before so they saw the environmental rules brought our by Obama as an assault against their lively hood and ignored any offer for "retraining".  All they wanted is a clear path forward to burn coal without understanding that natural gas fracking had already buried their industry, it was just the long slog through impoverishment to bankruptcy that was keeping the coal industry alive.

So all you had left was populism to promise the world to these "voters".  Roll back clean air rules, eliminate restrictions on mining like the clean water bills, open up exports, promise their jobs back.  These people stepped up and voted Trump Populism into office.  And over the last 6 months, when even THIS wasn't enough to stop coal demand from dropping, coal companies have been lobbying to congress to pass rules excepting coal power plants from closing for the next 2 years as an "emergency power generation" function; a request that even the Trump Department of Energy refused to consider.

Appalachian coal is becoming a niche mining industry to fill Metallurgical (Coking) coal demand from those mines who still have that type of deposit (around 30+% of the coal mined).  The only thermal coal work that will continue will be some of the larger low sulfur mines feeding remaining power plants in the east.  And this thermal coal will still be threatened by Powder River Basin coal from Wyoming where the seam is over 60 feet thick and can compete on the Mississippi and eastern ports with Appalachia coal costs.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #37
axios attempts to lay out the democrats' 2020 field. 
https://www.axios.com/dems-begin-lining-up-2020-staff-cash-2480249930.html

I will correct them here:
------------------

* too old
** not likeable
*** boring (either old news or bland personality)
**** thin resume
***** outside mainstream


Watched most closely:
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) **?, *****
Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) *
Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.)
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.) ***
Sen. Kamala Harris (Calif.)
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo

The classics:
Joe Biden *
John Kerry *, **, ***
Al Gore *?, **, ***
former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley ***

Outsiders:
New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu - ****
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti - go back to the wire, littlefinger
Washington Gov. Jay Inslee
Colorado Gov. Hickenlooper

Has begun seeking staff:
Montana Gov. Steve Bullock
Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.) ***
Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio) - ****

Many in Obamaworld like:
former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick
Rep. Seth Moulton (Mass) - ****
former Missouri SecState Jason Kander - ****

Many in Clintonworld like:
Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe - hate this guy.  he is incapable of smiling sincerely or talking differently from a used car saleman
former Ag Secretary and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack
former HUD Secretary Julian Castro

Possible if wins reelection:
Sen. Sherrod Brown (Ohio) - my current favorite.  he's from the rust belt, popular in his home state, swing-state ohio.  personally likeable and sincere.  positioned in the "obama zone", with one foot in both the progressive and moderate/establishment wings of the party.  lastly, he's a white guy, and I think the democrats would be slightly better off nominating white guys, as a tactical matter.  (white males as a group seem to be more turned off by candidates outside their group than any other demographic; women and nonwhites are used to candidates that don't look like them and aren't snowflakes about it.)

Wants to be mentioned:
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.) ***

Wild cards:
Sen. Al Franken (Minn.) - no comedians, please. I know he's a good senator. he's also a comedian.
Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo
New York Mayor Bill de Blasio *****
Rep. John Delaney (Md.) - who??

Non-politicians:
Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg can we please go back
Mark Cuban to taking the presidency seriously?  maybe I'm
The Rock just an out-of-touch elitist, but I think the
Starbucks Executive Chairman Howard Schultz presidency is an important
Disney CEO Bob Iger job, and we should have standards for who we hire for it.  this is real life, people.  not some game show.  it matters who we pick.
Oprah - ... wait a minute.  Oprah against trump is actually kind of ingenius...
George Clooney ...but back to what I was saying....
  • Last Edit: September 01, 2017, 11:39:57 AM by el jefe

  • VoxRat
  • wtactualf
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #38
Sen. Al Franken (Minn.) - no comedians, please. I know he's a good senator. he's also a comedian.
this reservation no longer holds, now that America has elected a "reality TV star / professional asshole" .
"I understand Donald Trump better than many people because I really am a lot like him." - Dave Hawkins

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #39
and my sincere hope is that we collectively remember that as a big mistake

  • MikeS
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #40
Sen. Al Franken (Minn.) - no comedians, please. I know he's a good senator. he's also a comedian.
this reservation no longer holds, now that America has elected a "reality TV star / professional asshole" .
I look forward to the word 'Douche' entering the political descriptive adjective mainstream.  It will be a South Park premonition fulfillment.

Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #41
Littlefinger was Martin O'Malley

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #42
right, it's just that the names similar.  garcetti - carcetti (?)

Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #43
'Hardcore Prophecy: The Trump of Doom'

Quote
This album tells the story of the 2020 presidential election.  The voice you hear is Dan Carlin, but he didn't say any of this stuff; the story was built from thousands of short audio clips from his podcasts (Common Sense and Hardcore History).  Dan Carlin is not responsible for any of the content.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGYeTmHHZQM

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #44
O'Malley making friends

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/16/martin-omalley-democrats-244945

very smart on multiple levels.  it meshes well with what the party needs to do and is realizing it needs to do: take downballot races seriously.  fight the gop everywhere, all four years of the cycle, every race down to dogcatcher, and continuously for all 4 years. 

he also might be buying the right stock at the right time, if the democrats have a wave in 2018.  he would be someone who obviously helped make it happen, to the gratitude of both the party generally and any winners he helped in particular.

Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #45
President Tommy Carcetti will happen yet! You'll all see!

Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #46
If only O'Malley were half as charismatic as his fictional counterpart.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #47
yeah.  hoping that can be learned.  O'Malley's a good guy

Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #48
We could certainly do worse.

Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
Reply #49
Jeff Merkeley is also pretty good.
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor