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Topic: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable? (Read 3694 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #175
Terry (i) Gross on NPR tonight was interviewing some guy from The New Yorker about Tillerson and yeah we're rally fucked but at least NPR is fake news.

  • rednoise
  • Sludgey Southern Kitcheneer
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #176
http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/36426106/if-nkorea-attacks-hawaii-youll-have-minutes-to-prepare-heres-what-the-state-wants-you-to-do

I think I'd just grab a bottle of whiskey and start chugging.

This, along with the movements with the UK is making and with what Corker said, and Trump's soft play of Stupid Risk, seems to point to some fucked up shit happening soon. But it could also be nothing except everyone reacting to Trump and his unbelievably dumb, vague statements.
"Marx and myself, one has fought harder all one's life long against the alleged Socialists than against anyone else"

-Engels

Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #177
Or justhis unbelievable dumb.
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #178
What could possibly go wrong?

Interesting take on the proliferation problem and what this does to potentially throw the whole 'nuclear club' into potential chaos.

  • meepmeep
  • Administrator
  • zombiecat queen
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #179
lol our non-functional State Dept and government run by fucking idiot lunatics and ideologues is going to get millions of people killed: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42160227

  • ravenscape
  • Administrator
  • Triggered
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #180
http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

How many kilotons are we talking?

Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #181
We're gonna miss you when the bomb hits SF, Raven.

Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #182
If this report is accurate, and the missile didn't survive re-entry, that implies the threat to the US might be just the charred wreckage  falling to the ground.

"we witnessed the DPRK missile blow up and fall apart" (South China Morning Post)
Quote
In a message on a staff online communication platform, the airline's general manager of operations Mark Hoey, also a former 747 chief pilot, said: "Today [November 29] the crew of CX893 reported, 'Be advised, we witnessed the DPRK missile blow up and fall apart near our current location. We advised ATC [air traffic control] and ops [operations] normal. Just letting you know'. Looking at the actual plots, CX096 might have been the closest, at a few hundred miles laterally."

'Blew up and fell apart' (BBC)
Quote
The company confirmed to the BBC that crew witnessed "what is suspected to be the re-entry" of the missile into the earth's atmosphere.

  • MikeS
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #183
Re-entry and targeting are pretty tricky things to get correct.  The size of early US bombs (megatons) was related to the accuracy of their early missiles (a circle a few miles wide).  Since then the accuracy of US missiles (tens of feet) and cruise missiles (tens of feet) has seen the size of the warhead reduced to avoid the massive collateral damage that isn't really useful to an army at war.

The randomness of a North Korean missiles and bombs means actual military threats are only meaningful close to North Korea.

  • meepmeep
  • Administrator
  • zombiecat queen
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #184


  • linus
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #186
A large ship is not allowed to leave a South Korea harbor after it violated sanctions.
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/31/asia/north-korea-ship-seizure-intl/index.html

  • meepmeep
  • Administrator
  • zombiecat queen
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #187
The North Koreans are so irrational and goofy and cartoony.


  • ravenscape
  • Administrator
  • Triggered
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #188
Leader of the Free World.

  • meepmeep
  • Administrator
  • zombiecat queen
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #189
another round of applause for john kelly and the other adults in the room for doing such a marvelous and fantastic fucking job of bringing discipline to the oval office

  • linus
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #190
statesmanlike

  • linus
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #191
Someone should explain to him how good it is for his golf and hotel business to not have a nuclear war.

  • meepmeep
  • Administrator
  • zombiecat queen
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #192
he literally just fucking live tweets fox news and lol millions of people could very well die


Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #193
and on that he he truly became president death, destroyer of worlds

  • meepmeep
  • Administrator
  • zombiecat queen
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #194
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/01/03/why-nuclear-war-with-north-korea-is-less-likely-than-you-think/

Quote
For the past few generations, political scientists who write about the outbreak of conflict mainly argued that leaders were irrelevant, focusing instead on international factors such as great power relations or domestic political factors such as whether the two countries involved had democratic institutions.

But more and more scholarship suggests that leaders make a large difference in determining whether and how countries go to war. And it's not just in dictatorships such as that of North Korea; even more constrained leaders, such as U.S. presidents, matter. Leaders' beliefs and experiences before coming into office can be critical in determining whether a country goes to war and what military strategy will be used in the event of war.

But structural forces are strong in this case

Even if leaders have discretion, they are constrained by material and situational constraints. No U.S. or North Korean leader can realistically change or avoid some of these constraints.

One constraint stems from the two sides' formidable military capabilities, which mean that a general war with North Korea would be devastating, as Barry Posen argued last year. Even before North Korea acquired a nuclear capability, its artillery put tremendous pressure on South Korea. Add to that its missile arsenal -- which, as nuclear experts have chronicled, can now probably deliver an intercontinental ballistic missile armed with a nuclear warhead against the United States.

A second unavoidable constraint is geography, which may make war less likely. North Korean artillery points directly at Seoul, just 35 miles from the demilitarized zone (DMZ). South Korea may oppose a war, which could influence U.S. behavior. North Korea also borders China, a powerful country whose economic support keeps North Korea afloat.

But China faces its own geographic reality with respect to North Korea, and China is increasingly frustrated with North Korea's behavior. In the event of war, China does not want refugees flooding across the border into China. Yet China also does not want a unified Korean Peninsula with U.S. troops on its border.

Indeed, in the Korean War, the United States tested geographic constraints by pushing beyond the prewar dividing line, the 38th parallel, in an attempt to unify Korea. China intervened to prevent such an outcome, and the conflict stopped where it started.

All sides know that a war would be a huge and difficult military and political problem. So there are strong incentives to try to deter the other side, rather than escalate.

U.S. and North Korean leaders have reason to make war even less likely

Although the focus on Trump and Kim almost always suggests that their behavior increases the risk of war, they actually have strong incentives to reduce the prospect of war.

Despite rhetoric about North Korea's irrationality, Kim's pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles was rational. He wants to stay in power, and nuclear weapons constitute invasion insurance. But a war probably would spell the end of the regime, giving North Korea little reason to start a war.

On the U.S. side, few wars probably have been war-gamed more than a conflict on the Korean Peninsula. U.S. decision-makers know how costly a war might be. Knowledge of these costs makes war less likely.

A leader-driven war would have to overcome strong structural pressures

If "leaders matter" for military decision-making, then with different leaders, we might get a different outcome. So what about Trump and Kim might lead to conflict?

One factor from Trump's side could be risk acceptance. Trump could decide that he wants to start a war despite the costs, and count on U.S. missile defenses to shoot down North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile launches and protect the homeland (an awfully big gamble). In theory, Trump's lack of experience also could make him less cognizant of the costs of war and less able to draw on his more experienced advisers.

From Kim's side, studies suggest that dictators -- who face fewer checks and balances -- are more risk-acceptant. With fewer people to tell them no, they are more likely to escalate in general.

If war occurs, one pathway is through a misreading of one side's incentives by the other. For example, Kim's desire to stay in power could lead Trump to believe that, even in the face of limited U.S. strikes against North Korean nuclear and missile facilities, Kim will back down instead of escalate. But it would be hard to credibly signal that those strikes would be limited, and if Kim believes the United States is coming after him, escalation becomes more likely.

Of course, war could also come via miscalculation and, eventually, some kind of preemptive strike. But research suggests that war spirals of that sort are extremely rare.

In war, as in elections, the fundamentals matter

Many questions in political science and history boil down to this: Do individuals or structural forces shape events?

Although recent evidence in international relations scholarship points to the importance of leaders, the North Korean standoff reminds us of the power of structural factors. That may provide some comfort to those who read the president's tweet on Tuesday night and worried about the risk of war.

  • ksen
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #195
Hahaha, like Trump gives a shit about any of that.

We're going to war with North Korea and Raven is going to die in a ball of nuclear fire.

Which reminds me, hey osmanthus, you have all the server access stuff you need for when Raven gets vaporized?

  • ksen
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #196
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/01/trump-officials-mull-north-korea-strike-bloody-nose.html

Quote
According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump administration officials are "quietly debating whether it's possible to mount a limited military strike against North Korean sites without igniting an all-out war on the Korean Peninsula."

This "bloody nose" strategy would entail responding to some provocation by North Korea with a limited strike to demonstrate the potential price of dictator Kim Jong-un's continued misbehavior.

:smithicide:

  • meepmeep
  • Administrator
  • zombiecat queen
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #197
wait i thought they were the adults in the room

Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #198

  • ksen
Re: War with N. Korea, is it inevitable?
Reply #199
wait i thought they were the adults in the room

They are.  :cripes: