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Messages - SR-71

1
https://www.livescience.com/62523-physicists-crowdsource-a-reality-check.html

Dinna find a related topic.   Blame the search function.  Thought this forum might have someone at least vaguely interested in this article.

Quote
A groundbreaking quantum experiment recently confirmed the reality of "spooky action-at-a-distance" -- the bizarre phenomenon that Einstein hated -- in which linked particles seemingly communicate faster than the speed of light.

And all it took was 12 teams of physicists in 10 countries, more than 100,000 volunteer gamers and over 97 million data units -- all of which were randomly generated by hand.

2
https://www.livescience.com/62006-arctic-warms-united-states-freezes.html

Quote
And the relationship between Arctic warmth and severe winter weather was strongest in in the northeastern U.S. -- in fact, a temperature spike in the Arctic meant that the U.S. Northeast was two to four times more likely than usual to experience a bout of extreme winter weather, the scientists reported in a new study.

I noticed the inverse relation, but hesitated to mention it until someone who studies these things did.  Well, now we have it, published in March 2018 in Nature Communications.

Quote
Past climate projections predicted that, in a warming world, winters would be the seasons to heat up the fastest -- and yet recent winters in the Northern Hemisphere were more severe than scientists anticipated, said Judah Cohen, the study's lead author and director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, an organization that assesses risks from weather events and climate change.

To understand what might be driving these unusual episodes, Cohen and his colleagues looked at pulses of warmth in the Arctic during winter months, to see how they lined up against weather anomalies elsewhere in the globe.

"When the Arctic pulse is warm, you tend to get an increase in occurrences of extreme winter weather across the midlatitudes, including the eastern U.S., northern Europe and northern Asia," Cohen told Live Science.

The relationship between spiking Arctic warmth and pockets of cold to the south was "really, really strong" -- and it was strongest in the eastern U.S., Cohen said.

Of course, FX and Cephus are way smarter than these deceitful eggheads and will soon set the record straight about what's really behind the inverse relationship.



3
Science / Re: NH winter cooling
4
Science / Re: Status of disease eradication programs
I guess we could shoehorn this in here.  Therapy, cure, or something, for reversing arteriosclerosis.  Works in mice, may work in people.

http://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2018/03/22/vascular-aging-mice-study

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On the potential for the study's results to translate to humans

"I'm quite optimistic with this one, because our blood vessels work the same way as in mice. This isn't a complicated disease like Alzheimer's. And so I think that actually I'd be surprised if there isn't some benefit in people. Of course the challenge is to make a drug, and we have to make sure it's super safe, but we're already doing human studies over the road from my lab at Harvard. And so far it looks really good."

Go forth and eat you a Twinkie, people.
5
You and Cephus just keep revomiting the same vomit that's been debunked over and over.  It's beyond stupid.
6
No one said that.  It's a typically stupid straw man.  The global temperature mean - whatever physical meaning you may wish to ascribe to taking an average temperature of the entire planetary fluid systems using thermometry - is quite possibly increasing.  I'd expect it is following the LIA.  I'd certainly hope it is because if it isn't that likely spells a return to a new local minimum which isn't good news at all.  In other news there are areas which appear not to be following the generalised trend and running counter to the predictions of the AGW hypothesis  The primary point is that when a record gets adjusted on a rolling permanent basis then it isn't a record at all.  It is a reflection of certain hypotheses advanced by those doing the adjusting.  The secondary point is that if you wish to ascribe the putative temperature rise to some causative agent then you need to provide the evidence to support those claims.  And the tertiary point is of course that NH winter cooling would be evidence refuting the AGW hypothesis.

Cephus allatime do the UD thing.
7
Sensors below the sea, on the sea surface, on land, in radiosondes, airplanes and satellites all report rising temps and THEY ARE ALL WRONG!  We know this because FX and Cephus0 at TR tell us so. 
8

Also missing is anything where they cite warm bias attributable to the sensors themselves.  If there is any comparison of the old thermometers to the current sensors, I didn't find it.
9
Frost pocket.  Sounds suspiciously like a transient low. 
10
I don't see anything about a big problem with warm bias, except in the one where they identify "frost pockets", IOW radiative lows, aka "transient lows".

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During radiational cooling, warm air is lost to the atmosphere and cools. This forms a temperature inversion, where the denser, colder air then settles into the exposed areas at the lower elevations, creat- ing what are often referred to as frost pockets. On this evening, the average minimum tem- perature of Raup's seven stations was -18.6°F (-28.1°C), yet the range extended from a high of -7.5°F (-21.9°C) near the former greenhouse located at the Bussey Institution (now the site of the Massachusetts State Lab) to a low of -26°F (-32.2°C) in the shrub collection (now the home of the Bradley Rosaceous Collection). The flat area south of the Bussey Hill summit (now called the Explorers Garden) experienced a minimum temperature of -16.9°F (-27.2°C).

You're conflating the issues of microclimate, which include UHI but also "frost pockets" with an instrumentation issue which really isn't a problem.  See, you are not the first genius to find that there are some slight differences between the way fluid filled thermometers and electronic instrumentation measure things.  Grown ups, like legitimate meteorologists and associated climate related disciplines find a way to deal with the issue, but you throw up your hands like a babby and rend your garments over it. 

That's mostly because your goal isn't to understand anything better, but just to spread doubt and uncertainty in the vulnerably feeble minded. 
11
That whole thing was bullshit, just like this.  The other posters sunk your battleship. 

Still waiting for the Blue Hill raw data discontinuity. 
12
When did they start using the sensors?  Did they throw the old instruments away the same day or did they compare readings for a while to check for agreement?  Is there a warm bias discontinuity in the Blue Hill record contemporaneous with the implementation of the electronic sensors?

 
13
When did they start using the sensors?  Did they throw the old instruments away the same day or did they compare readings for a while?  Is there a warm bias discontinuity in the Blue Hill record contemporaneous with the implementation of the electronic sensors?

 
14
Is FX claiming that transient lows just do not occur in nature? No such thing as a cold gust of wind? :dunno:

That seems to be the case.  He suffers from conflation of issues. 
Hahaha now that is funny.

I simply read every paper on the matter and then shared some info that is known about ASOS systems.  I was first clued to this back when I talked to a climatologist/meteorologist, who has run a COOP station and a NOAA station for 50 years now.  There are COOP stations that still use the old equipment (and the NOAA required as well).  Not just Blue Hill.  There are multiple stations that have complete records with the same equipment, as well as the new automated stations, so we can compare the two.  None of this is any mystery.

The automated stations are crap for climate data.


Here's the usual I am a great authority and you are as bugs under my feet spiel.   Won't someone spare a thought for all the hiring authorities at our great scientific institutions who can't find competent, qualified personel because they are all too busy writing blogs or holding court on chat forums. 
15
The "extreme" swings in annual data that start showing up after ASOS was required for climate stations are interpreted by idiots as "the climate is becoming more extreme" when in fact it is measurement errors.

Here's the old if you don't like the readings blame the instrument manuever.  So predictable. 
16
Science / Re: NH winter cooling
Of course the alarmists fuckheads think the world is warming and now claim the colder winters are from warming.  The more things change, the more they remain the same.

And yes, during the extreme cold winters of the 70s the arctic was warmer at times.  Because physics and shit like that.

Of course the ignorist fuckheads will ignore that Northern Hemisphere permafrost is getting warmer and/or melting.  It doesn't fit with their religious beliefs. 





17
Is FX claiming that transient lows just do not occur in nature? No such thing as a cold gust of wind? :dunno:

That seems to be the case.  He suffers from conflation of issues. 

First, it was that the electronic sensor registers dTemp/dTime at a sharper slope than mercury.  OK, fine.  If so, then it will work the same for Tmax or Tmin. 

Second, it seems that only man made high "transients" count, or that there are no natural low temp transients.  Ok, fine, but that's the old Urban Heat Island issue, nothing to do with properties of the thermometer, otherwise his argument would apply equally to fleeting high or low temps being recorded.

Third, he points to the spec sheet of the Davis unit as evidence that the high bias is because of the warm transients.  Well, no.  The spec sheet shows a "Radiation induced temperature error", in other words, error caused by the housing, or "shield", heating up in the sun in the afternoon.  This will happen no matter where the station is located. 

He's confused, the way he does, ya know. 

18
What?  They  forgot to put the part about the airport in there.  Those idiots!

You're telling me they use passive shield instead of aspirated shield?  Why are they being so cheap?  From the way you talk they're supposed to be some kind of benchmark.
19
Nonsense.  What I mentioned is still right there.  No need to lie about it.
The extensive research Blue Hill has done with the data does show how the new electronic sensors bias the data, but it makes the daytime high higher, not lower.  Because the electronic sensors will record very brief transient highs, the ASOS data records a brief warm event as the daily high, which means the Tmax data from the new equipment has a warm bias, which of course makes the daily mean higher.

So the data should be adjusted down, but that is not what they do.  Blue Hill uses both the original equipment and the new sensors, and compares the results. The true believer could care less, but in science belief isn't what really matters.
The "transient" high temps are from wind and hot surfaces (pavement, runways, parking lots), which change the respiration fan efficiency, and since the heat shield depends on that circulation to prevent spikes from such an event, it's a known problem.

Cold conditions do not suffer from "transient" cold events, you dumb ass.  There is a cold bias, but for a different reason.

But hell, we know facts are the last thing that will matter.


No transient lows he says!  Magic!
20
It's not my dumb argument that either the instrument only records transient highs and ignores lows, or that there are no transient lows to record.  That's your dumb argument. 
21
Because the electronic sensors will record very brief transient highs, the ASOS data records a brief warm event as the daily high, which means the Tmax data from the new equipment has a warm bias, which of course makes the daily mean higher.
Only records transient highs, eh? 
No you idiot.  Learn to read.  When it's windy, ASOS records transient high temps (usually from hot runways and paved areas) which means the daily high (Tmax) is not anything like what an old fashioned mercury Tmax thermometer would record.

Mercury takes time to expand, so a mercury thermometer won't record a brief gust of hot air, that an electronic sensor in an ASOS shield will record as a high of 110F.  The mercury thermometer will stay at 106F


If it records transient highs it records transient lows, you idiot. 
22
Science / Re: New Jersey Killer Tick Invasion
we're in Burlington county, whose schools seem to be considered above average.  I realize most of South jersey is either ghetto or bumfuck.

Welcome to exit 4. 
23
Science / Re: New Jersey Killer Tick Invasion
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/07/25/national/woman-japan-bitten-stray-cat-last-year-worlds-first-die-tick-borne-disease-carried-mammal-ministry/#.WpjOOChORHg

I had six years of infantry in Korea, which means out in the outdoors most of the time, and never had a single tick as far as I know.  Accordingly, it was surprising to see, a year or two ago, a news clip that Korea had a horribad tick problem and there's some weird ass tick disease.  Making an assumption based on the news link, the same disease is in Japan, and can spread from tick to cat to human.  Now we have some super swarming east asian tick invasion?  Oo
24
Science / Re: Annual Blue Hill Observatory Climate Data

The extensive research Blue Hill has done with the data does show how the new electronic sensors bias the data, but it makes the daytime high higher, not lower.  Because the electronic sensors will record very brief transient highs, the ASOS data records a brief warm event as the daily high, which means the Tmax data from the new equipment has a warm bias, which of course makes the daily mean higher.

Only records transient highs, eh? 
25
Science / Re: NH winter cooling
Oh yeah, Blue Hill, the place is turning into an icebox.  They could only squeeze out their 9th warmest year on record in 2017.

http://bluehill.org/observatory/2018/01/2017-was-warmer-and-wetter-than-average/