The new paradigm is to look at the actual observations and compare them with the individual ensemble outputs.
They then identify which models are closest to the observations and give those model outputs a higher weighting in computing the grand canonical average.
Obviously enough If you arrange for some algorithmic procedure to generate a combined output whilst weighting those which are currently running closest to the observations then you can in effect never be wrong.
My favorite bits...Quote from: Cephus0 on December 07, 2017, 01:26:15 PMThe new paradigm is to look at the actual observations and compare them with the individual ensemble outputs.They're doing what now? Testing their models against empirical observations? Tell me more about this crazy "new paradigm"!Quote from: Cephus0 on December 07, 2017, 01:26:15 PMThey then identify which models are closest to the observations and give those model outputs a higher weighting in computing the grand canonical average.They what? Refine their models based on their observations? What kind of crazy nonsense is that?Quote from: Cephus0 on December 07, 2017, 01:26:15 PMObviously enough If you arrange for some algorithmic procedure to generate a combined output whilst weighting those which are currently running closest to the observations then you can in effect never be wrong.Obviously enough, if you refine your theories to match your observations, your theories make accurate predictions. What a dastardly trick!
Unless it becomes a cooling world of course.
Burt told us that on Dec. 2, 1966, 12 inches fell in 60 minutes in Copenhagen, N.Y., and on Jan. 26, 1972, Oswego, N.Y., was inundated with 17.5 inches in a two hour period. Not surprisingly, both of these records were the result of the snow machine blowing off Lake Ontario.The Alaska storm was definitely not lake-effect, but a similar amount of moisture was involved. An atmospheric river -- a plume of very wet air -- transported warm, Pacific Ocean moisture all the way up into the high latitudes and smacked into the mountainous coast of Alaska.The atmospheric river was aided by the North American Winter Dipole, which is a "fancy term to describe abnormally warm conditions in the West and cold conditions in the East," according to the Capital Weather Gang's own Jason Samenow. "Under such a pattern, the jet stream, the super highway for storms that divides cold and warm air, surges north in the western half of the nation, and crashes south in the eastern half."
The sarcasm tell
So, wait a minute, we can expect more cold weather because of climate change?Before anyone cues the climate debate, Cohen is quick to add that his findings do not conflict with climate scientists who say the world is warming."Nothing in my papers or my ideas argues that the Earth shouldn't continue to warm," he said.In his recent paper, "An observational analysis: Tropical relative to Arctic influence on midlatitude weather in the era of Arctic amplification," Cohen argues that areas of the Eastern U.S., Europe and East Asia may be affected by warming in the Arctic.The effect of that warming is more cold, and possibly more snow, in these areas during winter.Climate science has long held that the Tropics exert the greatest influence on Earth's climate system because they are the warmest, largest and most energetic region on the planet.Climate change may produce more severe weather and a hotter planet, but temperature variations will be less severe, according to scientific consensus."All the conventional wisdom in the field has been about how we're going to get this muted swing in temperature," Cohen said.In other words, a warming world, and a warming Arctic, should mean warmer weather and fewer cold extremes.
Everything you just posted is wrong. What you think is the "conventional about global warming" is wrong. That you believe there is a prediction that warming winters is the greatest signal of AGW is wrong.
And another 19 inches fell before dawn Tuesday, bringing the total to 53 inches -- the greatest two-day total in commonwealth history. The previous record was the 44 inches that fell in Morgantown in March 1958.And it's not over for Erie - the snow is expected to continue falling through Wednesday.
The research not only finds a dramatic increase in snowfall, it further explains connections in the global climate system by attributing the record accumulation to warmer waters thousands of miles away in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans.
No, and an intelligent person has no trouble arguing over something they disagree with. An idiot will just post "wrong" and not support their ideas.
Cohen shows exactly why his theory is valid, and as time goes by we get more information to see if it's a representation of nature.
All the conventional models that predict warming show less temperature variation as the planet warms.
Less cold extremes, less snow, (except for high altitudes and polar regions),
the most warming in the boreal winters, over land, and at high latitudes.
The question of "why" we have observed more extreme cold and snow, along with a cooling trend for boreal winters, is a very important one.