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  • F X
  • The one and only
NH winter cooling
I almost replied in the topic, but hey, not every topic has to turn into the eternal global warming argument thread.
Well, both sides are right on that one, because it's not happening.
What do you mean by "it"?
I mean
colder winters (with more snow of course).
Of course. And I mean that as a global average of course. Of course you will always find regional variations in any global pattern.
If the NH winter (boreal winter) cooling trend was just regional cooling, natural variation, where small areas showed cooling rather than the expected warming, it certainly could be handwaved away and ignored. 

The best handwaving is to say "yeah, but it's not global" which is almost the last bastion of the true believer in "global warming is a fact no matter what any evidence shows".  The next to last one is "you have to look at a longer trend". (the very last bastion is "So what?")

If I show a twenty year trend of boreal cooling that actually is global, then we get the "you need a longer trend".  After that is explained, and why the theory matters, and why a 20 year cooling trend matters, that's when the "So what?" shows up.

I know this because this happened multiple times in 2015, and those conversations are still there.
http://talkrational.org/archive/showpost.php?p=2575311&postcount=412

It simply will not matter to a true believer, no matter how carefully the evidence and sources are provided, no matter how logical and scientific the argument is, it actually won't make any difference.

I used to think maybe one person would grasp it, but the MRI research has showed that the brain itself is wired to prevent any evidence from even getting through to the part of the brain that could think about what it means  Long before that the mind snaps shut, and an angry response blocks the rational discussion.

Like the quoted response in this post.  A dozen carefully presented graphs, from actual real sources (NCDC, GISS and the satellite data sets), that despite the adjustments still show a 20 year boreal winter cooling trend, globally, won't even make a dent.

That part at least is easy enough to show, but the irony is, even that won't get through to a believer.  It's goddamn hilarious on many levels.




"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #1
A big stumbling block for anyone who isn't being scientific about it is the issue of snow.  Snowfall amounts, snow cover extent, length of snow season, and of course the colder temps that always are associated with mid latitude snow, if you somehow have come to the belief "global warming causes more snow in mid latitudes" then it's hopeless.  That level of unscientific belief, that level of denial of reality isn't going to give way to facts, science, logic reason or anything else.

It's why I end up mocking people and laughing at the matter, nothing else is to be done.

Certainly warmer oceans and more available atmospheric water vapor can and will lead to greater snow amounts where it is always going to snow.  High altitude mountains, ice caps, (Greenland and Antarctica), polar latitudes during winter, that is also solid science, and the data shows it.

But to insist, after all evidence shows the opposite, that more snow in places like Chicago, or Boston, is due to warmer than normal winter temps, is an absurdity.  The US climate regions, the state data, and of course the station data (GHCN data) almost every data set uses clearly show snow is associated with colder temps, not warmer.

But goddamn, if somebody has made up their mind that warmer winters have more snow, good luck getting them to even look at any data.  It's a lost cause.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #2
A dozen carefully presented graphs, from actual real sources (NCDC, GISS and the satellite data sets), that despite the adjustments still show a 20 year boreal winter cooling trend, globally, won't even make a dent.
My point was that this is no longer the case. It was the case in 2012. It is not the case now. Here's the current 20-year winter trend:


Obviously not cooling globally. Yes, clearly regions that show cooling, though not nearly as much as they did a few years ago. And the reason for that is because the trend for those areas appears to have reversed in recent years. Here's the last 10:

  • ffejrxx
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #3
the last few thousand years has been the most consistant


  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #4
the last few thousand years has been the most consistant


No, there has been extreme changes in climate in the last 2000 years, something that clearly shows up in both the ice cores and the deep sea core data.

It was the case in 2012. It is not the case now. Here's the current 20-year winter trend:

OMG you agreed there was global winter cooling, but you got the period wrong. Neither the 20 or 30 year trend shows a global cooling for boreal winter, using 2012 as the end date.  Neither does just February.

And a twenty year trend is 97-16, or 98-17, and if you do look at the 20 year trend for winter you can still see the cooling trend now, despite the "warm" winters of 16/17

It's not strong enough to bring the global average negative, but looking at the regions showing a strong winter cooling trend shows why the areas where a lot of people actually live is cooling.  (and of course, the snow data supports this)

last twenty years trend boreal winter







"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #5
One problem with using GISS data is it is even more unreliable that the NOAA changes, and it doesn't match at all the actual station data.

Nor does GISS match NOAA, nor the sat data.

I use GISS maps because they are fast and easy, and neither the sat data nor NOAA offers such an easy method of plotting data.

Looking at the cooling trend and comparing NOAA and GISS, they just don't match, this is obvious.

The boreal winter trend I pointed out in 2014 using NCDC


The GISS version of it


Even with GISS munging the data so bad the trend is reversed, the drastic cooling shows up clearly.

  • Last Edit: October 06, 2017, 11:11:05 AM by F X
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #6
OMG you agreed there was global winter cooling, but you got the period wrong. Neither the 20 or 30 year trend shows a global cooling for boreal winter, using 2012 as the end date.  Neither does just February.
OMG you're right. I was misremembering. In fact there doesn't seem to have been a global winter cooling trend over any 20-year period since the 1970s. So why were you claiming there was one?

Fake ETA: Just saw your last post. Looks like NOAA has "munged the data" since whenever you got that graph too (bastards trying to make sure their measurements are more accurate):



And a twenty year trend is 97-16, or 98-17, and if you do look at the 20 year trend for winter you can still see the cooling trend now, despite the "warm" winters of 16/17

Sigh. Yes, I know. You are technically correct (the best kind of correct!) that what I posted is not a 20-year-trend, but a 21-year-trend. (Shouldn't that be more meaningful?) I almost edited my post to point that out, except for the fact that, as you can clearly see from the map you posted, even if you start with the abnormally hot year of 1998, the map still doesn't end up looking all that different from the one that starts in 1997.

It's not strong enough to bring the global average negative, but looking at the regions showing a strong winter cooling trend shows why the areas where a lot of people actually live is cooling.
Except they're not anymore. Look what happens if you start your trend just three years later...


Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #7
You can actually isolate a 28-year cooling trend for the contiguous U.S. from 1987 to 2015. Cherry-picking is fun! :) Extending it even one year in either direction makes it reverse though. :( Going any further than that of course makes the idea that U.S. winters are getting colder pretty laughable.

  • MikeS
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #8
I like cherries.  Red ones and black ones.  They're good in ice cream too.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #9
the "warm" winters of 16/17
Also, why is "warm" in scare quotes here? Is it just because it's weird to talk about winter being warm? Because 2016 and 2017 were respectively the 1st and 7th warmest winters on record for the contiguous U.S.

To put this "cooling trend" (yes, scare quotes is deserved here) in perspective, the year you were banging on about it, 2014, was not even a top 30 coldest winter on record for the U.S. Hell, 2010, the coldest winter the U.S. has had since 1985, wasn't even in the top 20! That's how much of a dent this "cooling trend" has made. The coldest winter of the past 30 years was not even a top-20 coldest winter.

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #10
It's almost like two different things are being displayed.



"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #11
Ah, I see, so when you said "global," you were actually only referring to about 30% of the globe. That makes sense.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #12
Also, want to guess what happens if you add the last three winters in there? Hell, even just 2015 would do it.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #13
Even in the contiguous U.S., one of your all-important "areas where a lot of people actually live," if you extend the trend by just 4 years, making it 1994-2017, it's a warming trend. So why is a 20-year cooling trend more significant to you than a 24-year warming trend that encompasses it?

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #14
if you extend the trend by just 4 years, making it 1994-2017, it's a warming trend.
What is a warming trend?
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #15
Ah, I see, so when you said "global," you were actually only referring to about 30% of the globe. That makes sense.
Don't be stupid.  The boreal winter trend is for the NH mid latitudes land temps, (for the most part).  It's not uniform, or symmetric, nor any other thing you make up.  Nobody is claiming the global mean is trending down, or that the boreal winter is a global trend. 

Stick to what is on the page, science works better that way.  That there could be any NH cold season trend that shows cooling, while the global mean is rising "faster than ever" is an amazing thing,  It's quite enough, no need to go crazy.


"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #16
Quote from: F X date=15Jim07388730 link=msg=123425
if you extend the trend by just 4 years, making it 1994-2017, it's a warming trend.
What is a warming trend?

What was unclear about what I said? Winters in the contiguous U.S., one of the major areas you've been going on about showing a cooling trend from 1995 to 2014, show a warming trend from 1994 to 2017. And over most other time periods you could choose over the past 130 years.
  • Last Edit: October 08, 2017, 07:18:32 PM by BenTheBiased

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #17
That there could be any NH cold season trend that shows cooling, while the global mean is rising "faster than ever" is an amazing thing
If the idea that an average can contain outliers amazes you I guess.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #18
If you consider the northern hemisphere winter trend to be an 'outlier' I guess.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #19
I mean by definition, yes, any data points that differ significantly from the average are outliers.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #20
Have you considered how many standard deviations away from the mean a data point should be in order to be considered as an outlier?

If and when you arrive at that number you might like to have another look at the global temperature distribution and think again about the statistical meaning of 'outlier'.

Just as a clue, if our data set happened to be planetary surface temperatures between, but not inclusive of, the orbits of Mercury and Mars and we determine an average temperature for that set - do you think there would be outliers?
  • Last Edit: October 09, 2017, 03:45:51 PM by Cephus0

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #21
 :smug:
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #22
Have you considered how many standard deviations away from the mean a data point should be in order to be considered as an outlier?
Not really, since I was just using it informally to make the point that it shouldn't really be considered "amazing" that data points may differ from the average. Based on your post, it seems you agree.

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #23
it shouldn't really be considered "amazing" that data points may differ from the average.
If you consider the northern hemisphere winter trend to be an 'outlier' I guess.
It's even funnier, because he hasn't actually looked at the data.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #24
No! Pronouns with unclear antecedents are never funny!