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Messages - Alan Fox

Jesus Christ
How far does this conspiracy of fake news extend, FX?
Science / Re: NH winter cooling
More fake news from the Guardian

Are they just trying to scare us?

(This comment contains some irony)
Science / Re: NH winter cooling
Politics and Current Events / Re: Macron
Here is a Guardian article that points out that a pragmatic reason for Macron's stance on immigration is that it is popular among the French. If only "les arabes" would embrace French language, culture, food, style and  forget their own cultural identities. They wouldn't be exactly welcomed but they might be better tolerated.

(this comment contains some irony)
Is this beginning to become news?

Massachusetts attorney general Maura Healey (D) announced Saturday that her state will launch an investigation into Cambridge Analytica, a data firm used by the Trump campaign during the 2016 election, after Facebook suspended the firm.
Cambridge Analytica, Robert Mercer, Facebook data "theft", US election "rigging" (and Brexit). Carole Cadwalladr in the Guardian.
If a warming period happens that causes a large release of fresh water into the arctic, it reduces the amount of cold salty water sinking there.  First, fresh water floats on top of salt water, allowing much faster freezing in the winter, reducing the cooling of the surface waters.  This actually keeps the ocean warmer, meaning less salt water sinks, meaning the deep ocean conveyor current is reduced.  This will show up later, exactly how much later is actually unknown.

Second, cold fresh water will not sink, so it actually changes the general circulation of the oceans.

The amount of time for the Thermohaline Circulation to complete a cycle (meaning the water makes a full loop) ranges from 100 years, to 4000 years.  (this is something we really need to actually know)

The estimate for the oldest cold water from Antarctica to upwell in the north Pacific is 1000 years.  But that isn't actually known.

It is hypothesized that this fresh water influx can alter the global climate, and it is possible it is one driver of global climate change.  Certainly something causes small changes in the amount of summer sunshine the NH receives to change the global climate.

From the Realclimate article I linked:

]There are, therefore, two reasons why thus far we could have underestimated the risk of a breakdown of the Gulf Stream System. First, climate models probably have a systematic bias towards stable flow. Secondly, most of them do not take into account the melting ice of Greenland.
It's all quite interesting.
Interesting? That's a bit of an understatement. The Gulf Stream has an important effect on climate in Northern Europe. The possibility that this could be disrupted is worrying. More discussion here.
Also, when your timescales are decades and centuries... well...
This is where Hari Seldon's model broke down!
Science / Re: NH winter cooling
I told you I would place a bet on this.  No alarmists can admit the sun drives weather and climate.
This alarmist says it does. Which alarmist says it doesn't? The sun is the source of the energy that is producing the weather patterns on Earth
Science / Re: NH winter cooling

Next I'll go for point (6).

6.  AGW predicts that the poles will preferentially heat thereby decreasing the temperature differential.  If true that means less violent weather would be the unavoidable prediction from the AGW hypothesis.

Which sentence(s) do you disagree with.? The first sentence would be difficult indeed to disagree with as it is claimed literally everywhere.  For example
The poles are warming faster than other parts of the Earth - a fact that has been widely accepted for years.
Scientists have known for several years that temperatures in the Arctic are rising faster (due to global warming) than for the rest of the planet
Effects that scientists had predicted in the past would result from global climate change are now occurring: loss of sea ice

AGW predicts that the poles will heat faster than the rest of the planet.  Do you agree?

If so, when combined with point (3) which we just in principle agreed above then the second sentence regarding AGW therefore must also predict less violent weather is also indisputably true.  Is it not?  In other words, if temperature differential "encourages" the weather and AGW reduces the temperature differential then it would not be possible for AGW to generate more violent weather.
More heat energy being trapped on the Earth, means more energy available for extreme events.  If, as some predict, northern hemisphere temperature differentials reduce wind generated by that differential, then that energy has to go somewhere.

Science / Re: NH winter cooling
It is more than "a" factor - it is the factor and is the meteorology 101 absolute basic fact.  Why on earth would you want to use "a more neutral choice of words"?  You may as well claim that the expanding gasses from burning cordite don't 'drive' the shell in naval gunnery and is a bit 'efficient causey'.  But w/e, use the neutral word of your choice.  How about "encourage"?  The temperature differential between tropics and poles "encourages" the global weather patterns.  Would that be sufficiently neutral for you?
Disagree about the factor. But no big deal.
...young guy, can't think of his name right now, earned his Ph.D outlining three major phases of this process...
Zachary Blount?
Science / Re: NH winter cooling
Of course the alarmists fuckheads think the world is warming and now claim the colder winters are from warming.  The more things change, the more they remain the same.

And yes, during the extreme cold winters of the 70s the arctic was warmer at times.  Because physics and shit like that.

Of course the ignorist fuckheads will ignore that Northern Hemisphere permafrost is getting warmer and/or melting.  It doesn't fit with their religious beliefs. 

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Glaciers. Why are so many of the world's glaciers retreating?
Science / Re: NH winter cooling

Ok well let's deal with those points which are easiest to demonstrate first and in that way hopefully increase the 'agree' list at the expense of the 'disagree' list.

I'll take point (3) from the 'disagree' list first.

3.  What drives the weather is temperature differentials between tropics and poles
It's a factor.. I disagree with "drives". Smacks of efficient causes. We could probably find  a more neutral choice of words. No big deal.
Science / Re: NH winter cooling
@ Chephus0

Things we agree on:

  • What matters is evidence.
  • science you are supposed to be able to verify what it is you think is being said.
  • is not a matter of consensus.
  • In science the burden of supporting a hypothesis with evidence lies with the person(s) advancing the hypothesis.

Things we disagree on:

  • We have effectively the same conditions as prevailed in 1963 which triggered the great 'New Ice Age' scare of the seventies.
  • ...for decades now we have been told over and over that NH winters are going to become warmer and that snow will be a thing of the past.
  • What drives the weather is temperature differentials between tropics and poles.
  • Half a century ago we had conditions pretty much like they are today.
  • 150 ppm CO2 all multicellular life reliant on the photosynthesis-underpinned food chain is dead.
  • AGW predicts that the poles will preferentially heat thereby decreasing the temperature differential.  If true that means less violent weather would be the unavoidable prediction from the AGW hypothesis.
  • ...the same [ice-core] data demonstrate that carbon dioxide does not drive temperature.
Science / Re: NH winter cooling
It's all fun and games till the UK runs out of gas and people start freezing to death.
And how the UK managed its oil and gas resources is an object lesson in failure that has little to do with the UK climate.
Norway managed things a little better.
Science / Re: NH winter cooling
It's all fun and games till the UK runs out of gas and people start freezing to death.
Pleased to see you read the Guardian. Weather is not climate!
Science / Re: NH winter cooling
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
We have effectively the same conditions as prevailed in 1963 which triggered the great 'New Ice Age' scare of the seventies.
Who has? The 1963 winter was the coldest on record for England. It was not a World-wide event. Again you are confusing weather and climate. Funnily enough, I nearly mentioned that winter. I remember walking home with my parents from boxing day celebrations with uncles, aunts and cousins when the snow started to fall. It was bizarre, you couldn't make snowballs. I also remember learning about the Albedo effect from the BBC weather forecasts, being given as a reason why the cold weather persisted under warm sunshine
So half a century on with continuously accelerating atmospheric carbon dioxide during which we have endured psychotic nut jobs like James Hansen screeching about 'runaway global warming' and we have the same low temperature events.  Good luck with telling the public they have to freeze in the dark in order to haul the temperatures down still further.  Sometimes you just have to laugh.
What global warming also does, as well as causing average temperatures to rise is to cause more extreme weather events as there is more energy in the atmosphere to drive them, more storms, stronger storms, more wind, stronger wind, more precipitation. Where I live, the weather has see-sawed. A couple of days ago it was -6°C and snow flurries yet today it's sunny and 16°C. There's no normal any more.
Science / Re: NH winter cooling
Certainly that atmospheric CO2 has increased to almost double its level in the 1960s.
Seriously?  That's your final answer?
I'm only, just like you, some random guy on the internet, so I'm not (nor are you) in a position to be authoritative about atmospheric CO2 concentration. From sources such as ice core samples it would appear that, in the last 10,000 years or so, CO2 levels have remained between 180 and 280 ppm until the start of the Industrial Revolution since when, there has been an inexorable and accelerating rise to 410ppm and upwards. The annual rate of increase is also increasing to stand currently at over 2 ppm. I concede that my "almost doubling" is an exaggeration. It will take another 40 years or so to double from pre-industrial levels.

ETA correction.
Science / Re: NH winter cooling
@ F X

Are you just some random guy on the internet, or do you have some credentials that might make your opinion any more noteworthy than my own?