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Topic: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark. (Read 3890 times) previous topic - next topic

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  • Faid
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #50
Who even made the rule that we cannot group ducks and fish together for the simple reason that they are both aquatic? If I want to group them that way and it serves my purpose then I can jolly well do it however I want to and it is still a nested hierarchy and you can't tell me that it's not.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #51
lol

  • Pingu
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #52
Nope.  Firstly, the polls haven't closed, secondly there aren't any (not in the normal sense of the word, anyway) and thirdly, the odds were shortened this morning.
I heard on NPR this morning,that it was illegal to publish exit polls, but not illegal to actually do polling. And the betting markets were being driven by big money that was performing their own polling.
interesting legal question might be whether someone involved in the betting markets (gamblers or the house) are in violation of the law against publishing exit polls.  by placing bets based on private exit polls, and bidding the price up or down accordingly, they are effectively signaling the exit poll results to the public.

and if not, then there's the question of whether the law should or will be amended to cover them.

The law is pretty well outdated by early voting by mail anyway.  And it's only even at all relevant because we have a single time zone with polling stations all closing at the same time.

But I seriously doubt that much in the way of literal "exit polling" (i.e. sampling voters as they leave the polling stations) is going on.  It is really expensive to do a good exit poll, which is why no public exit polling is being done - because the methodology doesn't apply to a referendum.

What will happen instead is that as the early votes come in, pollster's will extrapolate, based on past opinion polls in each region, whether the votes for each option are greater or less than predicted.  If, say, the Leave vote in Sunderland is worse than polling in that region suggested, then that will be the first clue that Remain is winning, even if Leave are ahead in Sunderland.
I have a Darwin-debased mind.

  • Pingu
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #53
OK, so pound still up on the day:

Quote
Investors have put their money on a vote to remain in Britain's EU referendum, with the pound hitting a new high for 2016 and the FTSE 100 share index rallying strongly.

As the market exuberance of recent trading sessions continued throughout polling day itself, there were, however, fresh warnings that investors were setting themselves up for heavy losses in the event of a Brexit when the outcome of the referendum becomes clear on Friday.

The pound broke through $1.49 against the dollar for the first time since December before shedding some of those gains in afternoon trading to stand at $1.4799 (still up 0.6% on the day). The FTSE 100 index of leading shares added a solid 1.2%, or 77 points, to close at 6338 - the highest for eight weeks.
I have a Darwin-debased mind.

  • Pingu
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #54
Betfair have got the probability of Remain at 84% right now.

https://www.betfairpredicts.com/

A key polling detail was finding that the economy (on which Remain leads) had caught up with Immigration (on which Leave leads) as a crucial issue.

The economic argument is a slam dunk.  So is the immigration argument, actually, for Remain, but people are stupid.
I have a Darwin-debased mind.

  • Pingu
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #55
[dupe]
I have a Darwin-debased mind.

  • RexT
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #56
I can feel you starting to relax some. Good! Please don't kill any of your wrong-voting neighbors, Lizzie. :)

  • Brother Daniel
  • Global Moderator
  • predisposed to antagonism
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #57

  • Pingu
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #58
:whyyou:
I have a Darwin-debased mind.

Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #59
I'll just put this here....

http://hurryupharry.org/2016/06/20/why-i-am-voting-leave-by-professor-alan-johnson/
like I said before, I don't have a good grasp of the overall politics involved but I am generally sympathetic to this sort of argument. When the financial sector is given the power to make policy, nothing good comes out of it.
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

  • Faid
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #60
The entire EU is basically the financial sector given the power to make policy.
Who even made the rule that we cannot group ducks and fish together for the simple reason that they are both aquatic? If I want to group them that way and it serves my purpose then I can jolly well do it however I want to and it is still a nested hierarchy and you can't tell me that it's not.

  • Pingu
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #61
I'll just put this here....

http://hurryupharry.org/2016/06/20/why-i-am-voting-leave-by-professor-alan-johnson/
like I said before, I don't have a good grasp of the overall politics involved but I am generally sympathetic to this sort of argument. When the financial sector is given the power to make policy, nothing good comes out of it.

And if that WAS what the EU meant, and leaving didn't, then I'd agree.

The issue is whether it is.  And it seems pretty clear to me that it is not.

I think the Eurozone is a quite different issue.  I was always against joining the Euro, and I think Greece probably shouldn't have.  I think countries need the freedom to manage their own currency, because managing your own currency is an important lever in distributing wealth.

But the EU isn't the same as the Eurozone.  It's essentially a market, on the one hand, and a counterweight to inequality (in my view) on the other.  The EU gives us employment laws that protect workers rights, for instance, and ensure that products are safe.  It doesn't stop us farming out production to Bangladeshi sweatshops, but it makes it more attractive to employ people who do have employment protection.

I'd say it limits the power of the "financial sector" rather than handing power to it.

I have a Darwin-debased mind.

Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #62
Ah. I just learned something. Thanks. So, what is the eurozone? Is that explicitly about currency?
Love is like a magic penny
 if you hold it tight you won't have any
if you give it away you'll have so many
they'll be rolling all over the floor

  • Pingu
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #63
Ah. I just learned something. Thanks. So, what is the eurozone? Is that explicitly about currency?

Yes.  There's a currency called the Euro, and 19 of the 28 members of the EU have it as their currency, including Greece, Italy and Spain, who have struggled to keep their economies up to the pace of the Euro.  Most of the Eastern European countries aren't in it, and nor is Sweden, so we all have our own currencies. 








I have a Darwin-debased mind.

  • Pingu
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #64
I have a Darwin-debased mind.

  • Faid
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #65
Yeah, I should have pointed out that my previous comment applied more to countries like us, within the Eurozone. However,  within that zone, when it is necessary to impose an artificial 'recession' to make a country investment-friendly again (since its currency cannot be devalued as would normally happen), the laws and regulations that lead to said recession are political and originate from the EU. For us, it sure looks like the political power and decision-making simply serves the needs of the financial sector. And I don't think that state of affairs can hold in the long run.
Who even made the rule that we cannot group ducks and fish together for the simple reason that they are both aquatic? If I want to group them that way and it serves my purpose then I can jolly well do it however I want to and it is still a nested hierarchy and you can't tell me that it's not.

  • Pingu
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #66
Yeah, I should have pointed out that my previous comment applied more to countries like us, within the Eurozone. However,  within that zone, when it is necessary to impose an artificial 'recession' to make a country investment-friendly again (since its currency cannot be devalued as would normally happen), the laws and regulations that lead to said recession are political and originate from the EU. For us, it sure looks like the political power and decision-making simply serves the needs of the financial sector. And I don't think that state of affairs can hold in the long run.

I completely agree.  Sharing a currency is a very real ceding of sovereignty.  At its crudest, it means you can't devalue your currency in order to make exports cheaper and imports more expensive.  "Quantitative easing" might be a tool you shouldn't use too often, but it's a bloody useful way of stimulating the economy and redistributing wealth in a tight spot.

When you guys were having your crisis, I was all for you reinstating the drachma.
  • Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 02:03:38 PM by Pingu
I have a Darwin-debased mind.

  • Faid
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #67
We should have done it 5 years ago. Now things have escalated so much that we're basically left with no options. And it's primarily become a political issue for Europe, so...
Who even made the rule that we cannot group ducks and fish together for the simple reason that they are both aquatic? If I want to group them that way and it serves my purpose then I can jolly well do it however I want to and it is still a nested hierarchy and you can't tell me that it's not.

  • Faid
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #68
Oh-oh.

Quote
EU has conducted a nationwide poll of over 10,000 people over the last 48 hours. The results are as follows:

Leave 52%
Remain 48%

The poll was conducted between 6pm on June 21 and 6pm on June 23rd and suggests a narrow Leave victory.

The poll excludes those that said they would not be voting or undecided.
Who even made the rule that we cannot group ducks and fish together for the simple reason that they are both aquatic? If I want to group them that way and it serves my purpose then I can jolly well do it however I want to and it is still a nested hierarchy and you can't tell me that it's not.

  • Faid
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #69
Other polls show completely reversed results. Looks like this is really gonna be on the edge.
Who even made the rule that we cannot group ducks and fish together for the simple reason that they are both aquatic? If I want to group them that way and it serves my purpose then I can jolly well do it however I want to and it is still a nested hierarchy and you can't tell me that it's not.

  • Pingu
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #70
The polls are useless.
I have a Darwin-debased mind.

  • Pingu
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #71
Well, they have some use. The YouGov one is encouraging.  But they are best treated relative to their own last samples, rather than as absolute indicators.

Pound is surging though.  US$1.50 to the £, on the basis of that YouGove poll.
I have a Darwin-debased mind.

  • Pingu
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #72
Oh-oh.

Quote
EU has conducted a nationwide poll of over 10,000 people over the last 48 hours. The results are as follows:

Leave 52%
Remain 48%

The poll was conducted between 6pm on June 21 and 6pm on June 23rd and suggests a narrow Leave victory.

The poll excludes those that said they would not be voting or undecided.

It was Leave.EU that commissioned it.  Sounds like a very dodgy poll.  Farage doesn't even seem to believe it.
I have a Darwin-debased mind.

  • el jefe
  • asleep till 2020 or 2024
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #73
I'll say this for Cameron: if Remain ekes out a win, he will have successfully called the bluff of two independence movements either of which could have drastically altered the course of your country, and incidentally destroyed him.  he will be able to say "now, enough of those distractions....", and get back to ~ normal (albeit shitty tory) governing

  • Pingu
Re: EU referendum. UK about to walk off cliff in dark.
Reply #74
:hmm:

Or, you could say, he came closer to losing the entire nation than any other PM, twice!
I have a Darwin-debased mind.