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Topic: NH winter cooling (Read 4677 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #250
After 8 years of what you believe to have been clearly explaining and providing evidence for whatever it is you're trying to demonstrate on this topic, have you persuaded anyone here of it? Has anyone said, "Oh, yes, I now see that you're right, FX. You've explained your position clearly and supported it sufficiently"?

Have you considered that the problem might not be me?

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #251
After 8 years of what you believe to have been clearly explaining and providing evidence for whatever it is you're trying to demonstrate on this topic, have you persuaded anyone here of it?
I see your confusion.  You think I have a goal of persuading you.  Now that is funny.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #252
Have you considered that the problem might not be me?
I don't consider you a problem to be solved.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #253
After 8 years of what you believe to have been clearly explaining and providing evidence for whatever it is you're trying to demonstrate on this topic, have you persuaded anyone here of it?
I see your confusion.  You think I have a goal of persuading you.  Now that is funny.
I assume you have the goal of communicating something in your posts. Has anyone here ever given you acknowledgement that you successfully communicated whatever it was you were trying to communicate? Or if my assumption is wrong, why do you post here?
Have you considered that the problem might not be me?
I don't consider you a problem to be solved.
Did you genuinely not understand that my question meant "Have you considered that you might not be a very good communicator"? Or was that just a joke? Is English not your first language?

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #254
If after 8 years you can't figure out when somebody is having a bit of fun with you, you actually might be some kind of idiot.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #255
I assume you have the goal of communicating something in your posts.
That's not an assumption, that is a given. 
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #256
Here is some communicating.
Quote
But according to a scientific study published this month, the Southeast's colder winter weather is part of an isolated trend, linked to a more wavy pattern in the jet stream that crosses North America. That dipping jet stream allows artic air to plunge into the Southeast. Scientists call this colder weather a "hole" in overall global warming, or a "warming hole."

"What we are looking at is an anomaly," said Jonathan M. Winter, an assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth College and the principle investigator in the study. "The Southeast is the exception to the rule."
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article200169249.html

Quote
We present a novel approach to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of regional cooling across the eastern U.S. (commonly called the U.S. warming hole), by defining a spatially explicit boundary around the region of most persistent cooling. The warming hole emerges after a regime shift in 1958 where annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures decreased by 0.46°C and 0.83°C respectively. The annual warming hole consists of two distinct seasonal modes, one located in the southeastern U.S. during winter and spring and the other in the midwestern U.S. during summer and autumn.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076463/full
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #257
Here is some more communication.
Quote
Although the Deep South has a reputation for hot, steamy weather, part of the Southeastern United States actually experienced cooler-than-normal temperatures in the years between 1991 and 2012.
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/05/140509-global-warming-hole-southeast-climate-change-scienc

All three of those quotes contain some serious bullshit. 

If the real data and the real story was laid out, it wouldn't make one bit of difference.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #258
Okay, whatever. :dunno: Have fun.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #259
<FX>
See? I told you it wouldn't make a difference!
</FX>

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #260
Has anyone here ever given you acknowledgement that you successfully communicated whatever it was you were trying to communicate?
All the time.  In fact, it is very common.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #261
<FX>
See? I told you it wouldn't make a difference!
</FX>

Quote
We could do a long running thread all about surface temperature data *adjustments* but none of it would make any difference to an indoctrinate.
http://talkrational.org/archive/showpost.php?p=2653144&postcount=1164

I've done many threads about the adjustments, on many forums, and it certainly doesn't matter at all.  No matter how overwhelming and obvious the evidence is, it doesn't make a dent.

It's just like the nonsense about "it snows more because it's warming".   If after a very long time, and after the evidence is just too much to somehow ignore, the true believer will end up posting "so what?", or "whatever", and still not learn a damn thing.

It's a level of fuckhead behavior that is predictable and entertaining as well.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #262
There are three recent papers "explaining away" the very obvious boreal winter cooling trends, and all of them are bullshit papers.  Yet the alarmists doesn't even bother to check to see if the info in the papers (not the conclusions) is even true.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • SR-71
  • Schmewbie
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #263
I'm sure the authors will be absolutely stricken to learn that FX has declared their work bullshit.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #264
I've done many threads about the adjustments, on many forums, and it certainly doesn't matter at all.
Well, it's certainly hard for anything to matter when you abandon these threads because you're such a baby that you'd rather throw a spam tantrum than continue them when your alt-sci ramblings get moved to the appropriate place, but I'm up for continuing there if you are...
http://talkrational.org/index.php/topic,806.500.html
I predict you won't though because...
It's a level of fuckhead behavior that is predictable and entertaining as well.

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #265
Well, it's certainly hard for anything to matter when you abandon these threads because you're such a baby
There you go again, making shit up, hen acting like what you made up is real.  It's very much the opposite of scientific.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #266

You don't even have to be an expert to realize how desperate and stupid things are, when the method is described,
Quote
Lets take a look at the difference in temperature trends between MMTS and LiG/CRS stations. To calculate this, we will be assigning all USHCN stations to a 2.5×3.5 lat/lon gridcell, and identifying all gridcells that have at least one MMTS and one LiG/CRS station reporting each month for the past 40 years. By limiting our analysis to these gridcells, we will ensure that the spatial coverage of both sets remains the same. Its worth noting that the sensor identification we are using is from 2009, and all stations currently MMTS will have made the transition to MMTS sensors at a different time over the past 26 years. This means that any bias to the temperature trends introduced by sensor switching should show up in the difference between current MMTS and CRS stations.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2010/a-cooling-bias-due-to-mmts/

That is the sort of complicated bullshit that we see all the time, in an effort to deny what the actual data shows.

What one does, if there is some question about new instruments adding changes to data, is compare climate trends from a station that changed over, with a station that did not.  Since there are multiple stations to use, and because despite the distance, trends are very much the same from different stations, it isn't hard to do. 

Blue Hill still uses the same instruments to avoid any artificial changes added by instrument changes.  So it's simple to compare with Amherst, which does use the electronic sensors.  If the new instruments caused some change to the trend, it will show up.

We can also use other stations, since an actual trend will show up in stations all over.





Of course somebody who believes won't be swayed by evidence.

But even so

Using data is beautiful

Hansen and Mann both pointed out that you don't even need that many stations to establish a trend, since stations separated by hundreds of miles still show the same trends.  (if the climate changes, this is certainly true)

But using Amherst and Blue Hill is a good example, due to the extensive documentation and care Blue Hill puts into gathering data.

While I consider it a complete waste of time to try and convince a true believer, looking at the data itself is never a waste of time, and I enjoy it.  A lot.

Looking at  hundred years of data tells us a lot about climate.






"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #267
Well, it's certainly hard for anything to matter when you abandon these threads because you're such a baby
There you go again, making shit up, hen acting like what you made up is real.  It's very much the opposite of scientific.
What, specifically, do you think I made up in that post?

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  • Schmewbie
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #268
Oh yeah, Blue Hill, the place is turning into an icebox.  They could only squeeze out their 9th warmest year on record in 2017.

http://bluehill.org/observatory/2018/01/2017-was-warmer-and-wetter-than-average/





Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #269
Looking at  hundred years of data tells us a lot about climate.

Not from just two stations.

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #270
Looking at  hundred years of data tells us a lot about climate.
Not from just two stations.
Yes, it tells us pretty much everything about climate at that location.  For that hundred years. Unless you use proxy data, it actually is the climate data.
You can actually compare new and old instruments, but you need to actually compare those two things.
Isn't that what they're doing though?
Dude, of course not.  Did you not read anything at all?
They're doing it on a large scale, and you're complaining that it doesn't work at the level of individual stations.
No, what is done is not comparing data from instrument changes with the original instruments at all.
But that's not the point.
There you go again.  You just make up something, and then want to argue your made up thing, rather than provide any evidence, or even reasoning, to support your claim.

It's exactly my point, but you handwave it away and then go on as if just saying something makes it true.  It's priceless.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #271
Wrong board.

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #272
Since the last time we discussed this, Hausfather actually wrote what I think is the clearest explanation of the adjustments that I've read yet...
https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-data-adjustments-affect-global-temperature-records
Is there anything you can point to in that that you specifically think is bullshit?
I would be particularly interested in your thoughts on this...
Quote
While much has been made about adjustments to individual land stations that increase warming, these are often extreme cases cherry-picked to make a point.
...because that is what it appears you are doing in this discussion.
Nonsense.

Quote
Is there anything you can point to in that that you specifically think is bullshit?
Quote
Raw data shows more global warming
That's simply not true.  Or rather, it's meaningless. The actual raw data from quality stations does not show more warning.  Certainly the data from absolute shit stations that are useless because of real issues shows "more warming", but the adjustments used by GISS/NOAA/HADCRUT don't fix that problem.  They actually make it worse.

Quote
Land and ocean temperatures are adjusted separately to correct for changes to measurement methods over time.
Meaningless, since the land changes are bullshit.
Quote
All the original temperature readings from both land-based weather stations and ocean-going ships and buoys are publically available and can be used to create a "raw" global temperature record.
That part is mostly true, and using raw data from quality stations shows clearly why the adjustments are bullshit.

Quote
The figure below shows the global surface temperature record created from only raw temperature readings with no adjustments applied (blue line).
Bullshi figure.

Quote
The red line is the adjusted land and ocean temperature record produced using adjusted data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with the difference between the two in grey.
Nonsense graphic.  Showing the difference (or the adjustments) to the surface stations is not even shown.  It's smoke and mirrors and bullshit.

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #273
Wrong board.
Nope.  And moving a discussion because you can't argue science is a bullshit tactic.  That much you might understand, but it is doubtful.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #274
Since Blue Hill can't just be handwaved away, we established that before proceeding, using it as a base to compare with makes it very difficult for the alarmists to just ignore it.

Actual data



What the adjusted data looks like



The fuckhead can't see the problem.  But anyone with a working brain can.



  • Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 01:04:37 PM by F X
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭