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Topic: NH winter cooling (Read 4641 times) previous topic - next topic

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #275
The Alternative Reality Science Extravaganza board is for the discussion of alternative POVs on science, such as the idea that climate science is bullshit. It's the appropriate forum for this discussion.
  • Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 01:04:39 PM by BenTheBiased

  • F X
  • The one and only
Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #276
The Alternative Reality Science Extravaganza board is for the discussion of alternative POVs on science, such as the idea that climate science is bullshit. It's the appropriate forum for this discussion.
Only you have used the phrase "climate science is bullshit"
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #277
Actual data



What the adjusted data looks like



How can it be so wrong?

Because of the idiot adjustments.



Adjusting quality stations to make the climate data not reflect reality, is not scientific.


"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #278
That adjustment data is out of date of course.  They "adjusted" the station data several more times since then.  But the source to compare them is not currently working.

Just looking at 2017 shows how they change the data they show.  2017 has almost a degree C added to it.
  • Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 01:56:02 PM by F X
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #279
The Alternative Reality Science Extravaganza board is for the discussion of alternative POVs on science, such as the idea that climate science is bullshit. It's the appropriate forum for this discussion.
Only you have used the phrase "climate science is bullshit"

Thanks for that bit of pedantry. This discussion still belongs in ARSE.

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #280
Nonsense.

What would be your preferred approach? Only using data from stations you consider "quality"? Are there enough of those to build a meaningful global temperature record?
I've illustrated before exactly what I think is scientific.  It either doesn't matter, or you handwave it away, or change the discussion.

Dale Enterprise is another station that suffers none of the changes used to justify drastic changes to climate data.  When they switched to an electronic sensor they recorded both the mercury/alcohol thermometers as well as the new electronic sensor.  It's actually on the report to the NWS.  (I have a copy)

This is scientific.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #281
So my prediction that you wouldn't engage in the appropriate forum was correct after all.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #282
Whoa Zeke Hausfather 'splainin itt.  Zeke 'splains

Quote
Here, roughly half of all corrections reduce the temperature and half increase it. For example, one station in Darwin, Australia has been adjusted to show more warming to account for a station move and shelter change in the 1940s. Yet the adjustment of another station - this time a station in Tokyo, Japan - has reduced the warming it shows to correct for the urban heat island effect of an expanding city.

how completely unbiased the 'adjustments' are coz "roughly half" go up and "roughly half" go down.  They don't but that's another story in the village.  This halfwit thinks it's perfectly ok to peer back into 1940's Darwin and decide how much that record needs to be 'adjusted' while simultaneously 'tweaking' Tokyo in a different direction.  Zeke is apparently some sort of self-anointed omniscient fucking Time Lord.  Zeke hasn't the first clue what a 'record' even means.  They are apparently incapable of maintaining a sensible terrestrial temperature monitoring network right now with sensors shoved in all manner of truly stupid locations but they can manage 'adjustments' to data nearly a century old with consummate ease.

That pitiful piece of bullshit uses the word 'scientist(s)' fifteen times like some hypnotising propaganda in which you must believe because they are - you know - scientists.  Scientists don't keep telling you over and over and over that they are scientists.  Modern climate voodoo pseudoscience from the go-to data-mangler Hausfather exemplifying the reproducibility crisis.  Interestingly enough Hausfather attempts to cover that by claiming that all of the data set managers arrived at roughly the same adjustments independently.   If you believe that the gospels were synoptic and you never read the Climategate emails then that might even look like a reasonable assertion.

  • F X
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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #283
The Alternative Reality Science Extravaganza board is for the discussion of alternative POVs on science, such as the idea that climate science is bullshit. It's the appropriate forum for this discussion.
Only you have used the phrase "climate science is bullshit"

Thanks for that bit of pedantry.
A search of the entire internet shows how idiotic your claims are.

You are the only person (that Google can find) that has ever even typed out "the idea that climate science is bullshit"

Now that is priceless.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #284
The Alternative Reality Science Extravaganza board is for the discussion of alternative POVs on science, such as the idea that climate science is bullshit. It's the appropriate forum for this discussion.
Only you have used the phrase "climate science is bullshit"

Thanks for that bit of pedantry.
A search of the entire internet shows how idiotic your claims are.

You are the only person (that Google can find) that has ever even typed out "the idea that climate science is bullshit"

Now that is priceless.

I wonder if that's because I wasn't quoting anyone. It was my characterization of your arguments. You may dispute the accuracy of that characterization, and I'd happily change it to "a certain aspect of climate science is bullshit," but it doesn't change my point. Ramblings about any aspect of mainstream science being bullshit belong in ARSE, and yours on this particular topic were moved there a year ago, so that's where you should be continuing them. If you don't like that, too bad.

  • F X
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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #285
I wonder if that's because I wasn't quoting anyone. It was my characterization of your arguments.
I know.  But it's still stupid.  Stick to what is actually on the page.  Science works better that way.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #286
This isn't a discussion about science though. It's a discussion about your opinion that a certain scientific practice is bullshit.

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #287
Well I agree your input isn't scientific. 
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #288
Arctic temperatures are soaring, and scientists are freaking out
Quote
It was the warmest December on record in the Arctic, and 2018 has already set a string of records for lowest Arctic sea ice.

Unfortunately for America and the rest of the planet, the best science makes clear that what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic. "We long ago anticipated that warming would be greatest in the Arctic owing to the vicious cycle of melting ice and warming oceans," climate scientist Mike Mann told ThinkProgress via email.

"But what we didn't anticipate is the way that changing wind patterns could accelerate that process -- and along with it, a host of nasty associated surprises."

Mann, who won the 2018 AAAS Public Engagement with Science Award last week from the American Association for the Advancement of Science, explained that those surprises include "including slowing down of ocean currents, and whacky weather patterns in North America associated with weather extremes like droughts, wildfires, floods, and superstorms."

"We are seeing what scientists have predicted for years," professor of thermal sciences John Abraham told ThinkProgress via email. "The temperatures in the Arctic are off the chart. This matters for the rest of us because this is the time of year when the Arctic ice should be growing. But it isn't growing like it should. So, this summer, there will be less ice and more open waters that will lead to more warming."

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #289
Don't worry, I'm sure Cephus will be along soon to express his trademark incredulity, probably with some ad hom about Mann and idiotic mockery of some strawman position no one actually expressed included as well.

And of course FX will tell us it's all bullshit.

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #290
Probably instructive to not jump up and down gibbering and flinging faeces at every weather event.  So then an unusual event in the Arctic.  Let's face it we already know that whatever the event was the alarmists would blame it on devil gas but perhaps we might actually have a look.

The arctic has gone instantaneously hot - relatively speaking - and sea ice dropped off a cliff.  So the obvious question is what caused that?  Did carbon dioxide suddenly increase rapidly to account for the hypothesis that carbon dioxide drove the event?  No it obviously did not.  So then why would anyone conclude that it did in the absence of supporting evidence?

Here's the sea ice cover graph from NOAA for the last millennium and a half..



Look at that dramatic plunge!  Arctic ice is at it's lowest for 1500 years apparently.

Except it isn't according to Stein et al and Ding et al - sorry abstract only.  Yamamoto et al seem to demur too.  Oh.  It looks like the Arctic sea ice cover is only slightly changed from the LIA.  Also it looks like the ice cover is about as high as it's been over the last 10k years.  Now Arctic ice cover waxes and wanes much like all climatic parameters do so the question is - why would anyone be alarmed?

You would have to be literally insane to propose some kind of causative relationship between carbon dioxide and the current Arctic temperature excursion.  Did someone or some model predict it?  Does it map to carbon dioxide concentrations?  Why no, it seems that the answer to both of those questions is a resounding negative..  Does it ever occur to one of you people that just maybe the climate is not well understood?

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #291
I'm a little disappointed we didn't get any ad hom about Mann in that post. Come on, Cephus! Have you forgotten the hockey stick? Also no railing against the unexpressed idea that this means Earth will soon become another Venus. Very disappointing. Plenty of the trademark incredulity though, so it's good to see that's still consistent.

There was one bit that I find really baffling though...
Did carbon dioxide suddenly increase rapidly to account for the hypothesis that carbon dioxide drove the event?  No it obviously did not.
Um...what? I thought if there was one thing even deniers agreed to it was that CO2 levels have been rising rapidly over the past century. Is Cephus denying even that?

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #292
You will never know
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #293
Except it isn't according to Stein et al and Ding et al - sorry abstract only.  Yamamoto et al seem to demur too.  Oh.  It looks like the Arctic sea ice cover is only slightly changed from the LIA.  Also it looks like the ice cover is about as high as it's been over the last 10k years. 
Does anyone see anything like that in any of those papers?

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #294
This is quite worrying if not an anomaly:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/27/arctic-warming-scientists-alarmed-by-crazy-temperature-rises

Maybe FX has something authoritatively reassuring to say.
 

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #295
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/02/26/1500Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-89.82,94.73,350

When the polar vortex shoves the cold down, some warm air is going to have to go up.  It happens.  It happened in the 70s
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #296
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/02/26/1500Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-89.82,94.73,350

When the polar vortex shoves the cold down, some warm air is going to have to go up.  It happens.
Exactly. So we shouldn't misconstrue the blip of cold weather over the US this winter as evidence against a general trend.

Quote
It happened in the 70s

And... ?

Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #297
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/02/26/1500Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-89.82,94.73,350

When the polar vortex shoves the cold down, some warm air is going to have to go up.  It happens.  It happened in the 70s
Not like this.

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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #298
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/02/26/1500Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-89.82,94.73,350

When the polar vortex shoves the cold down, some warm air is going to have to go up.  It happens.
Exactly. So we shouldn't misconstrue the blip of cold weather over the US this winter as evidence against a general trend.

Quote
It happened in the 70s

And... ?

A warming world has less difference in temperature between the cold poles and warm tropics, leading to a weaker polar vortex, that prevent cold from spilling south and making winters colder.  A warming world has milder winters.



Quote
The principal weather change likely to accompany the cooling trend is increased variability-alternating extremes of temperature and precipitation in any given area-which would almost certainly lower average crop yields.

During cooler climatic periods the high-altitude winds are broken up into irregular cells by weaker and more plentiful pressure centers, causing formation of a "meridional circulation" pattern. These small, weak cells may stagnate over vast areas for many months, bringing unseasonably cold weather on one side and unseasonably warm weather on the other. Droughts and floods become more frequent and may alternate season to season, as they did last year in India. Thus, while the hemisphere as a whole is cooler, individual areas may alternately break temperature and precipitation records at both extremes.
https://www.sciencenews.org/sites/default/files/8983
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭

  • F X
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Re: NH winter cooling
Reply #299
Of course the alarmists fuckheads think the world is warming and now claim the colder winters are from warming.  The more things change, the more they remain the same.

And yes, during the extreme cold winters of the 70s the arctic was warmer at times.  Because physics and shit like that.
"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and man."
― Mark Twain 🔭