The Infant Mortality Statistics re France and The US are based on different models: Jerome v Nialler

[ravenscape]

1) Topic/resolution: Is there a discrepancy in the life expectancy statistic and if so what are the causes of this discrepancy?
(2) Participants, positions and sequence: Jerome da Gnome(affirmative), Nialler (negative)
(3) Length in rounds: 3
(4) Maximum statement length: 4000 (not including quotes of the other participant, anything else excluded?)
(5) Time limit between statements: One week
(6) Start date: on or before 11/29/2009

Rat Ring Gallery is here.

[JEROME DA GNOME]

We shall take this in two parts, first, is there a discrepancy in the life expectancy statistic between the US and France? Yes, of course there is, in fact this discrepancy is used by the advocates for government provided health-care as a point on their side as to the benefits of government care, namely longer life.

The CIA World Fact Book presents this discrepancy very clearly:

United States

total population: 78.11 years
male: 75.65 years
female: 80.69 years

France

total population: 80.98 years
male: 77.79 years
female: 84.33 years


It is clear that there is an overall discrepancy in the statistic of life expectancy between these two nations of 2.87 years.


Now to the causes of the discrepancy between the life expectancy rates of the US and France. The three major causes of this discrepancy are obesity, auto accidents, and homicide, these we surely can all agree end a life prematurely thus bringing down the life expectancy statistic.

Obesity by nation tells us that the US has an obesity rate of 30.6% whereas France has a rate of 9.4%.

The Fatality Analysis Reporting system shows us that the rate of auto fatality in the US is 14.24 per 100,000. In France that figure is 7.68 per 100,000.

The United Nations Office of Drug and Crime presents to us the murder statistics we need. The US has a murder rate of 5.9 per 100,000 with France having a rate of 1.66 per 100,000.


It is with great clarity that the US population is 3 times as obese, twice as likely to die in an auto accident, and almost 4 times a likely to be murdered in comparison to the French population.

Just these three factors certainly account for more than the 2.87 year discrepancy we see in the life expectancy statistic between the US and France.

[Nialler]

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

We shall take this in two parts, first, is there a discrepancy in the life expectancy statistic between the US and France? Yes, of course there is, in fact this discrepancy is used by the advocates for government provided health-care as a point on their side as to the benefits of government care, namely longer life.

Two points here, and I'll deal with them in reverse order: I have no idea whatever how else a health system can be evaluated without recourse to life expectancy statistics. Quality of life is obviously an additional factor in itself, but life expectancy is generally considered to be a good indicator of the level of quality of healthcare available in a country.

The second point is important: you have not proven that any discrepancy exists as between the life expectancy rates for the US and France. All that you have indicated is that there is a difference. This is hugely different than a discrepancy, as two examples will show:

In the first I will compare my age (in whole years) with my older brother's age (again in whole years). His age is 49 and mine is 45. Thus, there is a difference of 4 years in our ages. This is not a "discrepancy", but a "difference". It might be called a "discrepancy" if it turned out that he was measuring his age in Martian years or by some other measure, but so long as we are using identical yardsticks the word "discrepancy" cannot be safely used to describe the difference between our respective ages.

That is one form of discrepancy.

Another form would be were two alternative means of deriving a figure caused an anomaly. If, for instance, I were manning a till at your local Starbucks and my tally at day's end told me that I had recieved $5k in takings, whereas the cash in the till amounted to $4.9k, then we have a discrepancy.

So we can have discrepancies as between two counts where one was calculated on a different basis than the other, and we can an internal discrepancy in one discrete system where two calculation methods are in conflict.

To so repeatedly use the word "discrepancy" is to abuse the language and is a tool to imply that there is doubt about the methods used to calculate the figures. It's a way of waving away the statistics, implying that they're anomalous.

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

The CIA World Fact Book presents this discrepancy

Nope. It displays the difference. Not a "discrepancy". A "difference".

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

very clearly:

United States

total population: 78.11 years
male: 75.65 years
female: 80.69 years

France

total population: 80.98 years
male: 77.79 years
female: 84.33 years


It is clear that there is an overall discrepancy

Sweet divine mother of fuck.

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

in the statistic of life expectancy between these two nations of 2.87 years.


Now to the causes of the discrepancy

How many times...?

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

between the life expectancy rates of the US and France. The three major causes of this discrepancy are obesity, auto accidents, and homicide, these we surely can all agree end a life prematurely thus bringing down the life expectancy statistic.

I'm listening...

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

Obesity by nation tells us that the US has an obesity rate of 30.6% whereas France has a rate of 9.4%.

This is not a mortality statistic, but it's one which holes your case beneath the water.

Obesity is taken very seriously indeed in France. Obesity leads to heart and lung problems, to diabetes, to immobility, to possible loss of limbs, to blindness and to a host of other very serious ailments. Thus, the healthcare services in Frace treat it with grave concern. The figure that you quote for France may look low, but it is being treated as an extremely urgent issue here.

Education on diet starts at the earliest stage, and créches and schools have strict obligations on the diet that they prepare for their charges. Carbohydrates are mixed at meals; you will never see a child offered a pasta starter as well as a pasta main course. The typical school meal consists of five courses including a salad course typically consisting of leaves, vinaigrette, beans and tomato. There will be a cheese course. Desert will be fruit.

All food advertisements carry a rider much like you see on boxes of cigarettes to the effect that one should plan for a balanced and nutritious diet. Excesses are avoided.

Obesity is a public health issue, not merely a problem for the individual. Resources devoted to helping the obese cope with their problems clog up the system for others. It's far cheaper to head the problem off at the pass, and it leads to a better quality of life for those who take the advice.

I pass my local school every day, and I always enjoy reading the lunch menu. There will be frites maybe once a week. The rest of the time (well, even including that) it's a well-balanced and healthy diet.

Cost-wise, for a family on the breadline, the meal costs thirty cents. For those of us who are profitably employed the maximum cost is three euro.

Money well spent.

None of this is an accident. Those responsible for healthcare have successfully lobbied their partners in Government to ease their burden by making good food and a well-balanced diet available to all. It results in massive savings to the healthcare budget.

The results are obvious: my daughter, aged three, enjoys her salad, her olives, her aubergine dauphine, and never refuses vegetables. It's in the culture, and that is deliberate.

I should also point out that there isn't a major disparity in France between the diet of the rich and that of the poor. Fruit, vegetables, dairy products are reasonably cheap and enjoyed by all. There are the obvious luxury items available here, but from experience, the diet is refined but still generally based on basic and healthy foodstuffs.

Diet is very clearly a healthcare issue, and when it's handled correctly it's something whoch can prevent expensive health problems. The healthcare system here does its job in reducing that load. And guess what? People here love their food. We're sort of famed for it.

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

The Fatality Analysis Reporting system shows us that the rate of auto fatality in the US is 14.24 per 100,000. In France that figure is 7.68 per 100,000.

I'll come back to this later, but maybe those porcine hooves in the US are treading too heavily on the accelerator. Maybe the cheek fat of your obese population is obscuring road hazards. Or maybe there is a better quality of emergency response and there is a better rate of postive outcome when victims arrive at hospitals which are conveniently distributed throughout France?throughout the country?

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

The United Nations Office of Drug and Crime presents to us the murder statistics we need. The US has a murder rate of 5.9 per 100,000 with France having a rate of 1.66 per 100,000.

Again, maybe the immediate care is better. Being facetious, I'd have to suggest that all of you American porkers are much bigger targets and therefore much easier to hit.

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

It is with great clarity that the US population is 3 times as obese, twice as likely to die in an auto accident, and almost 4 times a likely to be murdered in comparison to the French population.

Just these three factors certainly account for more than the 2.87 year discrepancy

That word again. How many fucking times do I have to tell you that it's wrong?

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

we see in the life expectancy statistic between the US and France.

"Certainly account for?"

Prove it. Show how the figures fit into the actuarial tables. SHow me the statistical basis for such a stupid and outrageous claim.This is the biggest claim that you've made and you've made it in the form of a flat assertion. So please back it up with good maths.

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

By the way, when you reply be so courteous as to address infant mortality statistics.

[Nialler]

Since Jerome has conceded the debate, I guess that this debate is now closed.

[ravenscape]

per the concession here, this debate is ended.

Thanks to Nialler and Jerome, and my apologies again for not making sure the resolution was acceptable to both parties.

Thread closed.